NFL 2018 Wildcard week picks

Saturday Jan 5
#6 Indianapolis Colts (10-6) at #3 Houston Texans (11-5) : The Colts are on a roll coming into the playoffs, and that has often been a good sign.  After starting 1-5, they have won 9 of their last 10 games, winning mostly on clever play calling (including some very unexpected moves from Frank Reich, who specialized in unexpected when he was backup QB in Buffalo) and excellent performances from Andrew Luck.  Indy even beat Houston the last time they played, which could make Texans fans nervous. However, Houston has a bright spot as well, and it's new QB Deshaun Watson.  Also a player willing to take some risks, he has an excellent sense of what is happening on the field and how to respond to it.  Combine that with the Texans defense, which has faltered at times but has some key players healthy again, and the Texans stand a good chance to win this game.  An upset is possible, as momentum can be key in the playoffs (just ask the Giants!), but I give a slight edge to the home team.  TEXANS, 26-24

#5 Seattle Seahawks (10-6) at #4 Dallas Cowboys (10-6) : Momentum is on the side of Seattle, who have won five of their last six games.  However, a poor road record is NOT on Seattle's side.  Worse, they win close games because their best-functioning aspect is their offensive ground game, a pounding punishing physical battle designed to wear down opponents.  The Cowboys defensive does not have a strong bench, so that strategy might work, unless the Seahawks fall behind.  That seems likely now that Amari Cooper has rejuvenated the Cowboys passing game.  The Cowboys offense was anemic before they traded for Cooper, now he is their most potent target.  Given the number of talented defensive players Seattle has lost in the past three years, especially in the defensive backfield, I see Dallas taking a large enough lead to hinder the Seattle running game, and allowing Dallas to control the pace of the game.  COWBOYS, 31-20

Sunday Jan 6
#5 Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) at #4 Baltimore Ravens (10-6) : The Chargers have the best record for a #5 seed in a long time.  That would seem to make them an obvious pick.  However, the Chargers have an atrocious postseason record, and the Ravens beat them handily in Week 16.  That win was due to the Ravens stiff defense and excellent play by Lamar Jackson.  In fact, since taking over as starting QB, Jackson has amassed a 6-1 record and escalated the Ravens past the Steelers, who almost seemed a lock on the playoffs a month ago.  All the signs would seem to point to a Ravens victory.  And that victory may happen, but I tilt towards the Chargers for two reasons: wildcard weekend almost always has at least one road team win, and beating a non-divisional opponent twice in the same season can be hard.  The Chargers have now seen what Jackson can do.  Furthermore, Jackson is still learning, so the Chargers can come up with a defensive game plan he has not seen before.  I am going out on a limb and picking the Chargers in a rare playoff victory.  CHARGERS, 27-24

#6 Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) at #3 Chicago Bears (12-4) : Many people have wondered why Chicago, in the second half of last week's game, with the outcome of the Rams game pretty much sealed, didn't simply rest and allow the Vikings to win that game?  After all, the first half proved that Chicago could beat Minnesota, and a Vikings win would send them to Chicago to face the Bears again in the first round of the playoffs.  In fact, Coach Nagy had even hinted at that earlier in the week.  Instead, the Bears bore down and ground the Vikings to a halt.  Why?  Because the Bears players wanted to play, and continue to play hard.  That's the kind of attitude that the Eagles had last season, an attitude that carried them right to the Super Bowl.  It's also an attitude that has been missing on that team most of this year.  Yes, the return of Nick Foles has sparked some of that, but it still isn't as intense as last season.  The Bears have a fearsome defense again, and an offense that works; sometimes despite themselves.  Again, that draws parallels to the 2017 Eagles squad.  BEARS, 24-17