Wednesday, September 23, 2020

NFL 2020 Week 2 Power Rankings and Week 3 picks

 We're only two weeks into the new season and we've already seen some strange results.  Houston's tough schedule has them starting 0-2, yet the new confines of Las Vegas seem invigorating to the hot-starting 2-0 Raiders.  The unnamed Washington team (I am getting to that post, I promise!) sits atop a pathetic NFC East and the Cardinals lead a powerful NFC West.  Let's get right to the numbers:

NFL Team Power Rankings

1.  Baltimore Ravens (2-0) : Thanks to a massive blowout against the Browns in Week 1, the Ravens sit atop the league's tower, glaring down at all of the other teams.  Their defense is fierce and Lamar Jackson has their offense clicking.

2.  Green Bay Packers (2-0) : The Pack needed to get out to a quick start, and they have.  I don't know how long they can hold their position, as the injury bug has already hit them in their thin receiving corps.

3 (tie). Arizona Cardinals (2-0) : They followed up a surprise defeat of San Francisco with an absolute domination of Washington.  This team certainly has everything going for it right now.  They combine a stingy defense with a tight offense, and the offensive line is doing one of the best jobs in the league right now.

3 (tie). Los Angeles Rams (2-0) : While playing closer games than the Cardinals, the Rams have shown a toughness and tenacity that keeps them contenders to the very last whistle.  Don't ever count this team off; they are most dangerous coming from behind.

5. Seattle Seahawks (2-0) : Yup, you see that right.  Three of the Top Five power teams come from the NFC West.  Seattle doesn't win in a flashy glamorous style, but they have many tools and many different schemes to throw at an opponent.  You never know what to expect from this team, on any side of the ball.

6.  Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) : The defending Super Bowl Champs have looked good, but their offense doesn't quite seem to have the same spark that they did at the end of the season, and during postseason, last year.  They will likely improve, but we know they can do better.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) : The return of Big Ben has sparked this team, on both sides of the ball.  This is the type of "run hard" bruising Steelers team we have come to expect throughout their history.

8.  Las Vegas Raiders (2-0) : I never expected to have this team in my Top Ten, but Outlaws in Grey and Black apparently want to show off for their new host city.  Coach Jon Gruden has really opened up the playbook, and this team is showing us stuff we haven't seen since the John Madden days.

9.  Buffalo Bills (2-0) : With Tom Brady gone, the Bills are getting their shot to be top dogs in the AFC East.  They still make a few too many mistakes and costly penalties, but they are starting to clean up their play.

10. Chicago Bears (2-0) : People scoffed when Mitch Trubisky was named starting quarterback over Nick Foles, but his dramatic comeback in Week One silenced many of them.  Trubisky needs to play a full consistent game, as he has had a bad half in each week.  Fortunately, the punishing Bears defense keeps teams from getting too far away.

11. Tennessee Titans (2-0) : Not a dominant opponent, but they are consistent and make few mistakes.  A close win is still a win, and this team wins most of their close games.

12. San Francisco 49ers (1-1) : Closing out my top tier is the last team in the NFC West.  I don't think they will remain here, as they suffered key injuries in their last game, but at least the 49ers gain a week here.

NFL Divisional Power Rankings

1.  NFC West : With all teams in the Top 12 in the Power Rankings, and all teams with positive point differentials, the top spot was obvious.  Definitely a division to be feared, their toughest opposition will be among themselves.

2.  AFC West : Excellent performances by the Chiefs and Raiders, as well as great play by the Chargers, compensate for a faltering Broncos team.  Likely the source of at least two playoff teams.

3.  AFC North : Baltimore is dominant, the Steelers are tough again, and even the Browns showed spunk in shaking off a horrible loss to Baltimore to win last week.

4.  NFC North : Minnesota has been a disappointment, but the Bears are doing well and Green Bay will excel, so long as they can keep enough players healthy.

5.  AFC South : Often the weakest of the AFC divisions, this division has started well.  Once the Texans get through their horrible start of a schedule, they should help bolster this division as well.

6.  AFC East : The Patriots are competent without Tom Brady, but their fans (and coach) demand more than competence.  The Bills lead, and if tensions brew in Foxborough, this division could fall.

7.  NFC South : Carolina and Atlanta are not looking good, the Saints lost a surprise to the Raiders, and the Bucs are still finding their connections.  There is potential here, but it hasn't been tapped yet.

8.  NFC East : Nobody has a positive point differential.  Nuff said.

Week 3 picks

Thursday night

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars: The rampant injury problem hasn't really devastated these two teams yet.  Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is still getting used to pace of the NFL, while freshman phenom Gardner Minshew continues his amazing performances in his second year.  Add in the Jaguars strong defense, and things look dark for Miami.  JAGS, 17-13

Sunday early games

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons:  The Bears seem for real.  I would prefer that QB Mitch Trubisky gets more consistent, but the Falcons are floundering, and the Bears stingy defense will just shred them.  BEARS, 20-17

Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles  The Eagles' offense has looked poor so far this season, and now half of their wide receiving corps is either injured or resting (possibly due to Covid?) for this game.  The Bengals haven't looked horrible, they haven't been able to manage to win yet.  Against a debilitated Eagles team, they'll get that win.  BENGALS, 20-13

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers:  The scheduling gods continue to spit on Houston, as they travel to a rejuvenated Steelers team.  Deshaun Watson has really been pretty good, but the Texans have been hurt by mistakes and a defense that seems to have lead weights in their shoes.  If they don't remove those weights this week, the speedy Steelers will hand them loss #3.  STEELERS, 21-16

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots:  Okay, I'll admit, it looks like the Raiders are for real this season.  Derek Carr still makes some costly mistakes, but the running game and defense have saved the day for the Raiders twice.  Make that three times, as the defense will have to rush and pressure the still-gelling new-look Patriots to help guarantee a win.  RAIDERS, 23-17

Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills: This game should be very close, and it will probably come down to the wire.  In those situations, I favor the team with the better defense, and that's the Rams.  RAMS, 23-20

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants:  I don't think any team was more devastated by injuries last week than San Francisco, who lost three key offensive players, including starting quarterback Jimmy Garrofolo.  Fortunately for them, the Giants lost their MAIN offensive contributer, running back Saquon Barkley.  The 49ers defense will squelch what remains of the Giants offense, allowing the 49ers to win in a game where they will likely be very little scoring.  49ERS, 16-10

Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings have really been poor on both sides of the ball.  It's strange, as they have the same talent to sent them to the playoffs last season, but they just don't seem to have the rhythm.  If they can't find it, they're in trouble, especially playing the Titans defense.  TITANS, 23-16

Washington [Fill in the blank] at Cleveland Browns:  The Browns improved greatly after an opening weekend fiasco against the Baltimore Ravens, and they are driving to continue to drive down the memory of that game.  A strong win against Washington would go far towards doing that.  Browns QB Baker Mayfield has not been too consistent, but he has some great talent around him, and a turnover-happy defense that would be glad to give his offense a short field on which to work.  BROWNS, 23-16

Sunday late games

Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Chargers:  Justin Herbert gets his second start in place of Tyrod Taylor, the Chargers QB who had his lung punctured by his own team doctor!  Herbert was very impressive in his first NFL game, and given the lackluster Panthers defense, he should impress again.  CHARGERS, 24-16

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks:  The Seahawks defense is a little banged up, but it should be sufficient to beat the Cowboys, whose offense just can't seem to work in synchronicity right now.  SEAHAWKS, 26-23

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals:  The surprisingly strong Cardinals, with their pounding defense, will make mincemeat of a Lions team that has just deflated since the start of the second half of their game against the Bears in Week One.  CARDINALS, 24-13

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts:  Let's see, which team do I think will play LESS badly?  COLTS, 17-13

Tampa Bay Bucs at Denver Broncos:  The new Bucs offense is starting to click, while Denver continues to struggle to find a workable play scheme.  BUCS, 27-17

Sunday night

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints:  The injury bug has started for the bench-thin Packers, but they still have enough starters to make this game competitive.  If the Saints don't self-destruct like they did on Monday Night, they should prevail.  SAINTS, 34-31

Monday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens:  The defending Super Bowl champs face the most powerful team in the NFL.  Lamar Jackson has the offense moving, and the defense is stout.  Patrick Mahomes may pull off a late fourth quarter miracle drive to win, but I'll pick the Ravens D to prevent that.  RAVENS, 31-27


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