Sunday, November 28, 2021

NCAA Football 2021 Championship Weekend picks

 Although USC and Cal also play this weekend, clearly the focus is on the conference championships.  Let's examine each one, in order of broadcast.

Conference USA Championship: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-4) at #17 UTSA Roadrunners (11-1) -- the Hilltoppers are very used to the championship game, and that certainly gives them an advantage.  If UTSA came in unbeaten, I'd be concerned that they might get overconfident and slip up.  However, since they were beaten last week, the Roadrunners have additional incentive to play very well.  I think UTSA will grab their first Conference USA title.  UTSA by 13

Pac-12 Championship: #20 Oregon Ducks (10-2) v #19 Utah Utes (9-3) -- Utah can be tricky, so this certainly will not be an easy ride for Oregon.  The Ducks certainly have the better talent, but the Utes have a tough defense and an arsenal of trick plays that make them a dangerous opponent.  I'll favor the Ducks, but this will not be an impressive victory.  OREGON by six

Big XII Championship: #6 Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1) v Baylor Bears (10-2) -- This might be the closest championship game of the weekend!  Despite a good Cowboys defense, I think this will be a high-scoring affair with multiple lead changes.  In the end, I think that Cowboys defense will prevent Baylor from making a final, go-ahead score.  OKLAHOMA STATE by four

MAC Championship: Kent State Golden Flashes (7-5) v Northern Illinois Huskies (8-4) -- Geez, given how poorly I've been picking the MAC, I almost hesitate to pick this game.  However, I will.  Northern Illinois seems to have the stronger team, and they certainly have more experience in the Championship Game.  NORTHERN ILLINOIS by nine

Sun Belt Conference: #25 Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-2) at #15 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (11-1) -- These two teams have faced off three previous times in the Sun Belt Championship.  Appalachian State has won all of the previous encounters, and I think that streak will continue.  There is just something about winning a championship that makes the Mountaineers play even tougher.  This is my first upset pick.  APPALACHIAN STATE by ten

SEC Championship:  #1 Georgia Bulldogs (12-0) v Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) -- Many national analysts seem to think Alabama will win this game (after all, that's the ONLY way that the Crimson Tide can be in the playoffs), which means they don't believe Georgia is really the best team in the country.  They're wrong.  Let's face it, Alabama has not been impressive in the past four weeks.  They needed a stupid play by an Auburn player who ran out of bounds in order to win the Iron Bowl, otherwise their playoff chances would already have been evaporated.  This will likely be the most one-sided championship game of the day, and completely wipe out Alabama's playoff hopes from even the most rabid Tide fan.  GEORGIA by 20

American Athletic Championship: #10 Houston Cougars (11-1) at #2 Cincinnati Bearcats (12-0) -- Okay, I'll admit that an upset is possible here.  But Cincinnati has been taking crap from the national analysts for so many weeks that I think they'll win this game just out of spite.  CINCINNATI by 11

ACC Championship: #18 Pitt Panthers (10-2) v #13 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (10-2) -- Oh, I'd love to see Pitt win this game, but I think Wake just has too much talent.  The Pitt defense won't make it easy for them, though.  WAKE FOREST by eight

Big Ten Championship: #12 Iowa Hawkeyes (10-2) v Michigan Wolverines (11-1) -- And now we get to the biggest game of the day!  Neither team was favored to be here, and Iowa needed help from Minnesota.  While the Hawkeyes will want to make the most of the opportunity they were given, their offense falters under a stiff defense, and that's what the Wolverines have.  Michigan certainly has the better offense.  While the Hawkeyes will likely get one score from a turnover, it won't be enough to win.  MICHIGAN by 12


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