Friday, August 19, 2022

NCAA 2022 Previews

 Instead of three different preview columns, I have diminished my focus to the Big Ten (for the last year) and the Gang of Give, so I will produce just one preview colum.  That column covers six conferences, so let's get started.

Big Ten

East:

1.  Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0 conference/12-0 overall) : The loss to Michigan last year, and failing to reach the College Playoffs, was a wake-up call.  The Buckeyes realized that they had gotten a bit complacent, automatically assuming they were the top team in the conference.  Even trailing at halftime didn't alarm them, as their gap was also small, and they would usually completely overpower opponents in the third quarter, being one of the best halftime adjustment teams in the conference.

Such confidence is dulled this season.  The practices have been more intense, and the players have been more willing to all out errors among themselves, even before the coaches do.  QB CJ Stroud has remarked that the intensity and responsibility among the players has been refreshing.  It has made him feel better, knowing that the players will push their opponents and watch for all opportunities to take control and momentum away from their opponents.  Stroud is also more comfortable under center with a year under his belt.  The Buckeyes are hungry, and hove the talent to chew up their opponents.

2.  Michigan State Spartans (6-3/9-3) : The defense is strong, and they have a hearty slate of runners, but the biggest question is on quarterback.  Whoever wins the starting spot will be a new man under center.  Thankfully he has good hands among his receivers, a decent line, and a fairly easy early schedule to help work him into the big time.

3.  Michigan Wolverines (6-3/8/2) : The Wolverines return with a scary good offense, but their Achilles Heel will be the same they had in 2020 -- their defense.  A projected loss to offensive powerhouse Hawaii will throw them akilter, and they will keep mixing thing,s trying to find the right formula.   That confusion and constant change could lead to a loss at Indiana against a strong Hoosier team, if they didn't falter already against Maryland.

4.  Indiana Hoosiers (6-3/8-2) : This team has a strong first string, but they lack depth.  Unfortunately, most of their strongest opponents are played late in the season, when injuries will put some of those weaker benchwarmers on the fireld.  The Hoosiers should get some early national attention, though, as they rebound from a loss to Cincinnati with four straight conference wins, including an upset of befuddled Michigan.

5.  Penn State Nittany Lions (5-4/7-5) : Linebacker U will still have a decent secondary, but both lines need work.  QB Sean Clifford has a nagging history of injuries, and a fractured offensive line will not help him stay healthy.  Clifford doesn't have a really strong corps of tight ends to dump off to, and top runner Nick Singleton isn't the best dump-off option, either.

6. Maryland Terrapins (3-6/6-6) : The Terps will reach a bowl game again this year, but I'm not sure they'll win it.  Once again, the Terrapins will roar through their non-conference schedule, but their bench isn't long enough to stand up to the punishment of a Big Ten season.

7.  Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-8/3-9) : The Knights have a good enough defense to keep them from being blown out in most games, but they don't have a strong enough offense to win most games.

West

1. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-2/10-2) :This one will be a surprise to the national analysts, but they've been ignoring the Hawkeyes for years.  They have many of their high-powered offensive players from last year, and it appears they have improved their defense.  This team is dangerous, so their opponents better not ignore them.

2.  Wisconsin Badgers (6-3/9-3) : Once again, the ground game should dominate the Badgers offensive scheme.  QB Graham Mertz is capable, but not spectacular.  Loaded for bear with a strong stable of runners, and a fierce offensive line ready to open holes for them, the ground game will once again dominate.

3. Northwestern Wildcats (5-4/8-4) : Their defense still looks stout, but there are some question marks on offense.  Their special teams squad is capable of some amazing plays, so opponents should not take fourth down for granted.

4.  Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-5/7-5) : Minnesota will stay close in many games, but they won't win all of those.  Their squad is a little young.  They'll also have some problems later in the season, as their bench is a bit light on talent.

5.  Illinois Fighting Illin (3-6/5-7) : Despite having many of their players back from last year, consistency is the Achilles Heel of my Illini.  If they play like they have the past two seasons, they will surprise and upset one conference opponent, giving them a shot at a bowl game, but they still aren't a strong team.

6.  Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-7/3-9) : The Conrjuskers find themselves in the midst of a rebuilding year, so we can't really expect too much.  Maybe next year.

7.  Purdue Boilermakers (1-8/2-10) : Unfortunately it doesn't look like a good year for the Boilermakers.  The daughter of a friend of mine will be starting school there this fall.  My advice to her:  don't attend a football game if you need a pick-me-up.

MAC

 East

1.  Buffalo Bulls (7-1/9-3) : The Bulls have a stingy and dangerous defense that will lead the conference in takeaways.  The strength will propel them to the division lead, as they offense is capable but not spectacular.  If they fall behind, it will be the job of the defense to stuff their opponents and give the offense a short field.

2   Miami Ohio Redhawks (6-2/7-5) : This team returns most of their squad from last year, and their offense was one of the most productive last year.  Look for them to do even better this year.

3.  Kent State Golden Flashes (5-3/6-6) :Kent State has a nice squad of offensive players, but they have some concerns on the offensive line.  Those guys ahd better move fast, and develop plays quickly, as opposing defenses are going to be getting into their faces, at least early in the season.  Hopefully the line will improve.

4.  Ohio Bobcats (4-4/6-6) : The Bobcats fell quite a bit last year under a new coach.  It is uncertain how well he will advance in his second year, but at least his players have more experience.

5. Akron Zips (2-6/4-8) : It's a rebuilding year for the Zips, but at least a favorable schedule will not make it a terrible one.

6.  Bowling Green Falcons (1-7/1-11) : Having the toughest non-conference schedule, and a pretty tough conference one, will make this a long season for the Falcons and their fans.

West

1.   Northern Illinois Huskies (7-1/10-2) : The Huskies might have the best offense in the conference, and their defense is second only to Buffalo.  They will make it tough for their non-conference opponents, and reach the Top 25 nice and early.

2.  Toledo Rockets (5-3/7-5) : The Rockets also have a good offense, although some new faces on the offensive line will give them a slow start. Worse for the Rockets -- their toughest conference games are among their first four.

3.  Central Michigan Chippewas (5-3/7-5) : It looks to be a pretty good season for the Chippewas.  They aren't a flashy team, but they are stable and control the clock very well.  I see similarities to Wisconsin in  this bunch, especially in their ability to control the line of scrimmage and establish a ground-chewing running gmae.

4.  Western Michigan Broncos (4-4/5-7) : A thin bench will prove to be the undoing of the Broncos, as they face some stiff competition early, which will likely knock out some key players.  If their bench develops quickly, they might do better.

5.  Ball State Cardinals (1-7/3-9) : Wicked schedule for a team going through a rebuilding year

6.  Eastern Michigan Eagles (0-8/1-11) : The Eagles have the toughest schedule in the conference.  Definitely a nasty trick to play of the team.

American Athletic:

1.  Houston Cougars (8-0/12-0) : The Cougars return most of their phenomenal 2021 squad who went unbeaten in conference play and knocked off Auburn in their bowl game.  With a favorable non-conference schedule, they could become the second Gang of Five team to make the College Football Playoffs, duplicating Cincinnati's achievement last year.

2.  Cincinnati Bearcats (7-1/10-2) : Speaking of those Bearcats, they are the favorite to win the conference by many national analyssts, but they only look at records and not the team news.  The Bearcats graduated nine starters to the NFL, the most in team history.  While some of their backups from last year were good, they lost some of those to graduation, as well.  The Bearcats are not "bare bones", as they had a strong bench last year, but they aren't as strong as they were last year.

3.  UCF Golden Knights (6-2/9-3) : Who has won the most American Athletic titles?  That's the Knights.  While they have a great team this year, they can't compete with Houston.  They will compete nicely with their opponents, though.

4. East Carolina Pirates (5-3/7-5) : The Pirates are known for having a stiff defense, but its the offense that will shine this year, led by QB Holton Ahers.  They have a strong running game, too, so most teams will be playing catchup against them.

5. SMU Mustangs (5-3/7-5) : SMU has a slightly easier schedule, so while they don't play the Pirates, their achievement will be less.  That doesn't diminish the fact that the Mustangs are a hungry team, with a quick defense that identifies and exposes their opponents' weaknesses.

6.  Memphis Tigers (3-5/5-7) : The Tigers freshman QB is highly touted, but we are yet to see how he performs against some of the defenses in this conference.  The Tigers might develop fast and be a stronger team, but I'm not sure.

7.  Navy Midshipmen (3-5/4-8) : The ground-pounding Navy cadets will not have a great year, as they lost some key players.  They won't compete for the Commander-in-Chief trophy, either.

8.  South Florida Bulls (2-6/3-9) : The Bulls still have a stout defense, but their offense is vapid this season.

9.  Temple Owls (1-7/2-10) : The Owls have a feisty crew, but they aren't deep on talent.  If they can avoid injuries they might win a game or two more, but somehow I'm not sure they can avoid that.

10.  Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-7/2-10) : A rebuilding year for Tyulsa, who is also handicapped with a killer schedule.

11.  Tulane Green Wave (0-8/2-10)

Conference USA:

A couple of teams will be competing for their last Conference USA title, before switching to the American Athletic conference next year.

1.  UTSA Roadrunners (8-0/9-3) : This is the favorite to win the conference, repeating their tremendous run from last year.  The Roadrunners have one of the most dynamic offenses in the couference, so watch them light it up.

2.  UAB Blazers (7-1/10-2) : Here's the other depating member with a strong shot at the conference title.  These two teams are not scheduled to face each other in the regular season, so they will likely face off in the Conference Championship.

3.  UTEP Miners (5-3/6-6) : A stingy defense and talented tight ends makes the Miners an attractive team to surprise some opponents.

4.  Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (4-4/5-8) : The Hilltoppers are going to wich fro a stronger bench, as a series of tough non-conference opponents to start their season may leave them seriously short-handed to start conference play.

5.  Florida Atlantic Owls (4-4/5-7) :The Owls have a good defense, but they suffer some weaknesses in the offense.  That squad will probably get better as the season wears on, and bode well for next season, but it'll still be a long season for the Owls.

6.  North Texas Mean Green (4-4/5-7) : A thion bench, and some holes on both lines, makes this a tough year for the Mean Green.

 7.  Charlotte 49ers (3-5/4-8) : It won't be a stellar year for the 49ers last year in the conference.

8.  Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-5/4-8) : The Bulldogs are fighting to regain supremacy in the conference.  Maybe next year.

9. Florida International Golden Panthers (2-6/4-8) : Their defense looks decent, but the offense has holes

01. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-7/3-9)

11. Rice Owls (0-8/1-11)

Mountain West:

Mountain

1.  Boise State Broncos (7-1/10-2) :  The Broncos will once again be a force to reckon eith.  A speedy, often no-huddle offense will attempt to keep opposing defenses confused with their own defense is strong.  A New Years Day bowl is a likely destination for this team.

2.  Utah State Aggies (6-2/8-4) : The Aggies look to be a dangerous team this year, and for a change, that's a danger to the OTHER teams.  With many starters back from an offense that kept improving, the Aggies could be a true force on the field.  The defense is stable, although they need to stiffen their line.

3.  Air Force Falcons (5-3/8-4) : The Falcons have a nice, stable team, but they aren't a "big play" type of team, which is sometimes necessary in this conference.

4. Colorado State Rams (5-3/7-5) : The Rams have a good team, but they have a nasty entdency to lose at least one game each year that they are supposed to win.  That's why a conference title continues to elude them.

5.  Wyoming Cowboys (1-7/3-9)

6.  New Mexico Lobos (0-8/0-12)

West

1.  Fresno State Bulldogs (7-1/9-3) : What a great schedule for the Bulldogs!  they face nearly all of their tough opponents at home, and a talented bench makes them a threat at any time of the season.  

2.  San Diego State Aztecs (6-2/9-3) : As good as Fresno State looks, they have stiff competition from the Aztecs.  San Diego State also has a dynamic offense, and they have a stingy defense to match.  If they can avoid turning the ball over (a common problem) they might win this division.

3.  San Jose Spartans (6-3/8-4) : Defense is the dominant squad for the Spartans.  For many conferences, that would be a good thing.  For the high-scoring Mountain West, not so much.

4.  Nevada Wolf Pack (3-5/6-6) : The Wolf Pack have a decent defense, but their offense needs work.  Have I mentioned how important offense is in this conference?

5.  Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (2-6/4-9) : Their offense is not quite as strong as usual, and the Warriors never have much of a defense.

6.  UNLV Running Rebels (1-7/2-10)

Sun Belt:

East

1.  Appalachia State Mountaineers (7-1/9-3) : The Mountaineers are the best team in the division again.  Strong on both sides of the ball, and often on the positive side of the turnover battle, this team has been a facorite to win every year.

2.  Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (6-2/7-5) : The Chanticleers will be pushing the Mountaineers again, but they'll fall short.  Nothing against their starting squads, but their bench is thin.

3.  Marshall Thundering Herd (6-3/7-5) : An eaay schedule helps the Herd this year, as they aren't quite as strong as usual.

4.  Georgia State Panthers (4-4/5-7) : The Panthers have a defense that can confound opponents, and often win the turnover battle.  Unfortunately their offense doesn't always take advantage of those opportunities.

5.  Georgia Southern Eagles (3-5/4-8) : The Eagles face a rebuilding year

6.  Old Dominion hs (2-6/3-9) 

7.  James Madison Dukes (1-7/3-9) 

West

 1.  Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-1/9-3) : Once again, the Red Wolves are a favorite to win this division.  Even with Troy moving over here, Arkansas State holds the most powerful cards in this division, especially on offense.

2.  Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-2/9-3) : The defense of the Golden Eagles can snarl the teams in this conference that rely on offense.  If the Eagles fall too far behind, though, they don't be able to mount a strong comeback.

3.  Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (5-3/8-4) : The offense of the Cajuns is a quick scoring one, so taking early leads will be their game plan.  The question is how well their defense can play so that they can maintain that lead.

4.  Troy Trojans (3-5/4-8) : Troy isn't quite as strong as previous years, but they are always capable of surprising.

5.  South Alabama Jaguars (3-5/3-9) : A very favaorable schedule for the Jaguars, but they are still a "weak sibling" in this conference.

6.  UL Monroe Warrhawks (1-7/2-10)

7.  Texas State Bobcats (0-8/2-10)

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