NCAA Week 11 picks

We're in the final stretch of the season, and games get crucial for plenty of teams.  Division and conference titles are on the line, and we have a couple of games like that this week.

Tues Nov 10
Ohio Bobcats at Buffalo Bulls:  We start off with a key game, as Ohio needs to keep pace with Temple for the MAC East title.  Buffalo had a great season last year, but they haven't been able to match it.  They'll fight hard, but the edge has to go to the team with more at stake -- OHIO

Wed Nov 11
Toledo Rockets at #17 Central Michigan Chippewas:  A win here won't clinch it for Toledo, but will maintain their one-game lead over Northern Illinois for the MAC West title.  Besides, the Chippewas want to maintain their Top 25 ranking.  There are too many good teams knocking on the door for Central Michigan to risk a loss.  CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Thurs Nov 12
Ball State Broncos at Northern Illinois Huskies:  The Huskies should keep pace with Central Michigan, setting up for an exciting showdown between those two in two weeks.  NORTHERN ILLINOIS

South Florida Bulls at Rutgers Scarlet Knights:  Ooh, this should be an exciting game!  These two are fairly evenly matched.  South Florida has shown tremendous heart since losing their starting quarterback earlier this season, while Rutgers has shown that they can exceed preseason expectations.  This should be a close game, and those often benefit the team with the best defense and special teams.  SOUTH FLORIDA

Fri Nov 13
#22 West Virginia Mountaineers at #6 Cincinnati Bearcats:  Cincy has two good reasons to win this game - impress voters (like myself) who raised TCU above them, and eliminate a competitor for the Big East title.  That should be enough to win this game, once you factor in the amazing job backup QB Zach Collaros has done.  CINCY

Top 25
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs:  Alabama has clinched the SEC West, but they won't slack off.  They want to remain unbeaten going into the SEC Championship Game, knowing that a victory over Florida will give them the top spot on EVERYONE's poll.  With this defense, I wouldn't bet against them.  ALABAMA

#2 Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears:  Baylor's had a good year, but now they have to face the awesome might of the Longhorns.  Getting bowl eligible may have just become an unreachable goal for the Bears.  TEXAS

#3 Florida Gators at South Carolina Gamecocks:  This could be an upset!  The Gamecocks often have some tricks up their sleeves, and Coach Spurrier is quick to identify weaknesses in his opponents.  The Gators have not looked as good as they have in recent years, despite their unbeaten record, and now might be the perfect time for a letdown.  I'll go with Florida, but I'm looking forward to the battle of unbeatens in the SEC Championship Game, but don't underestimate the Gamecocks.  FLORIDA

Idaho Vandals at #4 Boise State Broncos:  You have to feel for the Vandals.  They were off to their best start in years, but a blowout loss to Nevada scorched their conference title hopes.  Now they hope to salvage their season.  They are already bowl eligible, but I'm afraid this game against Boise State could take them out of contention for a good bowl game.  BOISE STATE

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #7 Pittsburgh Panthers:  The Irish are hoping to regain their Top 25 position, but the Panthers stand in their way.  Pitt wants to keep pace with Cincy.  Since the Bearcats play earlier in the week, Pitt will know what they need to do, and that's win.  This is the best squad that Coach Wannstedt has had while at Pitt, so he's going to make the most of them.  PITT

#9 Iowa Hawkeyes at #10 Ohio State Buckeyes:  Man, this one was almost my Game of the Week!  Two Top 10 teams square off with the Big Ten title at stake!  Nothing gets better than that.  Usually the Ohio State v Michigan game determines the conference title, but this year the winner of this game will capture it.  Iowa has a strong offense, but their tendency to come from behind might hurt them against the defense of Ohio State.  Yes, Iowa got past Penn State's defense, but Ohio State proved last week that they can overcome that, so I think they'll overcome Iowa, too.  OHIO STATE

#11 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Duke Blue Devils:  Believe it or not, Duke can be bowl eligible with one more win!  That's reason for them to play for the upset, but Tech's defense is too good to allow that.  Still, Duke might make it interesting, until they get exhausted by the Tech pressure and fold in the fourth.  GEORGIA TECH

Arizona State Sun Devils at #12 Oregon Ducks:  Oregon is looking to clean the stink of the Stanford game from their mouths.  Arizona State can be a tough opponent, but they are arriving in Eugene at precisely the wrong time.  OREGON

#21 Texas Tech Red Raiders at #13 Oklahoma State Cowboys:  The Cowboys had better hope #13 is lucky for them, as they host the Red Raiders.  Tech has a potent offense, but the best offense in the conference lives there in Stillwater.  Losing only to Texas, the Cowboys have dominated their previous opponents.  While Tech is capable of staying close in score, the difference will be what the Cowboys do when Tech has the ball - attack.  OKLAHOMA STATE

#14 BYU Cougars at New Mexico Lobos:  An easy victory for the Cougars over the hapless Lobos.  BYU

Indiana Hoosiers at #15 Penn State Nittany Lions:  The Lions have had enough!  Two conference losses, to Iowa and Ohio State, are all that JoePa and the team will tolerate.  They want to close out the season with wins to help ensure a New Years Day bowl.  That means Indy can't count on an upset.  PENN STATE

#25 Stanford Cardinal at #16 USC Trojans:  The Cardinal beat the Ducks, who slaughtered the Trojans.  It seems like Stanford should beat USC, right?  Well, the Cardinal have rarely mustered two consecutive Top 25 upsets in Jim Harbaugh's tenure, and I'm not sure they'll do it now.  Still, this USC team is not as strong as teams in the past, and Stanford has beaten Pete Carroll twice in the past four years.  The Cardinal will keep it close, and an upset is possible, but I'll have to give the edge to USC.  USC

#18 Houston Cougars at Central Florida Golden Knights:  UCF can be dangerous, but Houston sees a Conference USA title in their future, and they're remaining true to that vision.  The Cougars have a potent defense, and their offense is no slouch, either.  HOUSTON

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at #19 LSU Tigers:  It hasn't been going well for LSU lately, so this game should be a good chance to turn things around.  LSU

#20 Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels:  North Carolina has suffered since starting conference play, and Miami will show no mercy.  They need all the wins they can capture to keep pace with Georgia Tech.  MIAMI

#23 Virginia Tech Hokies at Maryland Terrapins:  Not a challenge for Beamer and company.  VIRGINIA TECH

#24 Arizona Wildcats at California Golden Bears:  This will be a hard-fought battle.  Arizona has the offense, but Cal is tricky and determined to redeem themselves in the conference.  Arizona is chasing Oregon for the conference title, though, and a trip to Pasadena will be too tempting to let slip away.  ARIZONA

Big Ten
Michigan State Spartans at Purdue Boilermakers:  These two teams are pretty evenly matched.  Purdue is peaking now, though, while the Spartans' best games were earlier in the season.  For that reason, I like Purdue to win this one.  PURDUE

Northwestern Wildcats at Illinois Fighting Illini:  The Illini have won two in a row and need to run the table to be bowl eligible.  I'd love to see them beat Northwestern, but the Wildcats seem to have too much power to expect the win.  NORTHWESTERN

Michigan Wolverines at Wisconsin Badgers:  Michigan needs this game to become bowl eligible, but the Badgers are a tough opponent, and the Wolverines are collapsing.  WISCONSIN

Game of the Week:  #8 Utah Utes at #5 TCU Horned Frogs:  The game that could, in all likelihood, decide the Mountain West title and which of these two teams gain entrance to a BCS bowl game, surpasses the Big Ten title game in excitement.  Utah and TCU are both unbeaten in conference play, TCU unbeaten overall, so you know that neither of these two will give up.  This will be a battle from kickoff to final whistle.  TCU has been more impressive in their victories this season, but they've had a slightly easier schedule than Utah.  Utah wants to gain the upper hand for the conference title and show they are still the power in the conference, but I think this could be TCU's year.  TCU

Other Games of Interest:
Temple Owls at Akron Zips:  Temple will continue their dominance in the MAC East, awaiting their showdown with Ohio for the division title.  TEMPLE

Clemson Tigers at NC State Wolfpack:  Clemson leads the Atlantic division in the ACC, and they need every victory to maintain their lead over Boston College.  NC State isn't much of a threat this year, and Clemson's defense will finish this game early in the third.  CLEMSON

Delaware at Navy Midshipmen:  Navy plays a strong FCS team in a breather from their hard-fought victory over Notre Dame last week.  NAVY

Auburn Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs:  Auburn's out of the title chase, but they can still trouble other SEC teams, including delaying Georgia's hopes of becoming bowl eligible.  AUBURN