NCAA Week 12 picks

I'm nervous about this week - too many games featuring Top 25 teams where the result seems obvious.  There will be upsets, but I can't figure where.

Wed Nov 18
#15 Central Michigan Chippewas at Ball State Broncos:  The Chippewas win their division with a win here.  QB Dan LeFevour is too powerful a threat for Ball State to stop.  CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Thurs Nov 19
Colorado Buffaloes at #12 Oklahoma State Cowboys:  The Cowboys know what they need - a Texas loss and to keep winning.  At least part of that will happen here.  OKLAHOMA STATE

Fri Nov 20
#4 Boise State Broncos at Utah State Aggies:  The Broncos know that they need an impressive win to compete with TCU in BCS busting power.  They should get it here, but how will TCU respond?  BOISE STATE

Top 25
Chattanooga at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide:  The Tide will breeze over this FCS team.  ALABAMA

Kansas Jayhawks at #2 Texas Longhorns:  The Longhorns are itching to face the SEC Champion in the BCS title game.  Kansas might give them some trouble early, but the strength of the Longhorns will ensure the win.  TEXAS

Florida International Golden Panthers at #3 Florida Gators:  Easy in-state victory over the struggling Sun Belt team.  FLORIDA

#5 TCU Horned Frogs at Wyoming Cowboys:  The Horned Frogs should continue their winning ways, clinching the Mountain West title in the process.  TCU

#9 Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines:  Playing in the Big House is no longer a challenge for the Buckeyes, and Rich Rodriquez's guys are falling apart again.  A loss here knocks Michigan out of bowl contention for the second straight year and ensures at best 10th place in the conference.  Is Rodriguez worm food in Ann Arbor?  OHIO STATE

#10 Oregon Ducks at Arizona Wildcats:  Potential upset here.  The Wildcats can be a tough team, but they can also be a bad team.  Depending upon which team shows up, the Ducks might have their hands full.  Still, with RB LaGarrette Blount back from his suspension after the Boise State game, this team seems poised to run all over Arizona (pun intended).  OREGON

Minnesota Golden Gophers at #11 Iowa Hawkeyes:  I don't think Iowa will need a fourth quarter comeback to win this one, as they should overpower Minnesota early.  IOWA

#13 Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan State Spartans:  The Spartans defense is good, but Penn State's is better.  This will be a defensive showdown, but Lions QB Darryl Clark will find a way to pull it out.  PENN STATE

Air Force Falcons at #14 BYU Cougars:  By halftime, BYU will know if the Mountain West title is still within reach.  Even if it isn't, the Cougars are playing for a New Years Day bowl, so they won't let up against the Falcons.  BYU

San Diego State Aztecs at #16 Utah Utes:  Like BYU, the Utes will know at halftime whether the conference is still within their grasp, but a New Years Day bowl will be, so the Aztecs will be abused.  UTAH

#17 LSU Tigers at #24 Ole Miss Rebels:  A Game of the Week candidate, the LSU defense will wear down Ole Miss.  What begins as a close game will start to separate late in the third.  LSU

Cal Golden Bears at #18 Stanford Cardinal:  Let's face it, this is the first time the Cardinal have serious competed for the conference title in over a decade.  They need to hope for a Ducks loss, but the Cardinal are bowl bound and ranked for the first time in eight years.  Cal might give some problems, but the Cardinal have shaken one monkey from their back - they beat two ranked conference opponents in two consecutive weeks, meaning they've eliminated the "on again, off again" rotation of previous seasons.  I like Stanford's chances to continue to roll.  STANFORD

#19 Wisconsin Badgers at Northwestern Wildcats:  Northwestern has gotten up for tough opponents this season, but Wisconsin has found ways to win this year.  They may need to come back in the fourth quarter, but they've done that nearly as many times as Iowa this year.  WISCONSIN

Memphis Tigers at #20 Houston Cougars:  The Cougars need to win to have a chance to get back to the Conference USA Championship Game, so they'll mangle Memphis.  They won't allow another game like that against Central Florida.  HOUSTON

NC State Wolfpack at #21 Virginia Tech Hokies:  The Hokies are playing for pride now, as they can't win the division.  NC State has missed their chances for a bowl, so they've only got the role of spoiler remaining.  They won't spoil this team's season.  VIRGINIA TECH

Virginia Cavaliers at #22 Clemson Tigers:  Clemson clinches the ACC Atlantic division with a win here.  Clemson has been hot lately, so I think they'll do it.  CLEMSON

Kent State Golden Flashes at #23 Temple Owls:  Temple is ranked for the first time in a lifetime, and a win here clinches a berth in the MAC Championship Game.  Kent State is a good team, but the Owls are on a mission, and I think they'll reach their objective.  TEMPLE

Big Ten
Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers:  The Boilermakers could put Indiana in the cellar of the Big Ten.  For both teams, the outcome is simply a matter of pride, and bragging rights in the state of Indiana, since both have failed to be bowl eligible.  Purdue seems the stronger team, although Indiana can be sneaky.  PURDUE

Game of the Week
Kansas State Wildcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers:  For the first time, I pick a contest between teams outside the Top 25, but Big XII games this late in the season can always be exciting.  This game pits the two teams in contention for the Big XII North title, and the winner gets the prize.  I think Nebraska is the stronger team, both offensively and defensively, so I like their chances to advance to the Big XII Championship.  NEBRASKA

Other Games of Interest
Oregon State Beavers at Washington State Cougars:  The Beavers are still in Pac-10 contention, but they know two things:  they need to win, and they need some help.  I don't know about the help, but they can at least seal the win.  OREGON STATE

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks:  After last week, I don't think anybody will be thinking upset around a Bulldogs game this week.  ARKANSAS

Oklahoma Sooners at Texas Tech Red Raiders:  Another candidate for Game of the Week, it lost since a division title is not on the line.  These two will play tough, and they are fairly evenly matched.  I'm tempted to pick the home team, but I think Oklahoma will pull off a late game surprise.  OKLAHOMA

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Syracuse Orangemen:  Syracuse is not having a good year, so the Knights get to build their bowl status.  RUTGERS