Monday, December 28, 2009

NCAA Bowls 2009, Part 2 - New Years Eve and Beyond

The majority of bowls fall into this group, thanks to a unusual New Years Day placement and a determination to push more bowls past New Years Day.  How many people out there remember when the bowls ended the night of January 1st?  I do.

Dec 31
Armed Forces Bowl - #15 Houston Cougars v Air Force Falcons:  Traditionally a chance for Air Force or Navy to take center stage, the sentimental favorite is always the service academy playing.  However, Houston's excellent rushing attack will wear down the Falcons' defensive line, and the Cougars will charge in the second half.  HOUSTON

Sun Bowl - #19 Oklahoma Sooners v Stanford Cardinal:  Okay, here's one of my upset picks.  The Sooners are good, but horribly inconsistent.  The Cardinal gets up for ranked opponents, so the Sooners are a motivator for Harbaugh's boys.  Through in some clever passing formations that Oklahoma is not used to seeing, and I foresee a Stanford victory.  STANFORD

Texas Bowl - Navy Midshipmen v Missouri Tigers:  Navy has a strong running team, but the Tigers defensive line is tough.  I like the offensive firepower of the Tigers, and don't think Navy has a sufficient defense to stop them.  MISSOURI

Insight Bowl - Minnesota Golden Gophers v Iowa State Cyclones:  This could be a close game!  Sentimentally I have to pick the Big Ten team, and the Gophers have lived for close games all season long.  This might be their type of game.  MINNESOTA

Chick-Fil-A Bowl - #14 Virginia Tech Hokies v Tennessee Volunteers:  Tennessee tends to play well in bowl games, but few play harder than Virginia Tech.  Tech has more weapons, too.  VIRGINIA TECH

New Years Day
Outback Bowl - Northwestern Wildcats v Auburn Tigers:  The Big Ten has owned the Outback Bowl in recent years, but I'm afraid that will change this year.  Auburn was not the defensive power we're used to seeing, but their defense is still good enough to stall the Wildcats offense.  Auburn's offense isn't great, but neither is the Wildcats defense, so I have to favor Auburn in a low-scoring affair.  AUBURN

Capital One Bowl - #12 Penn State Nittany Lions v #18 LSU Tigers:  Two tough defenses, but the difference will be the Penn State offense.  Both teams hit hard, but the Penn State offense hits just as hard.  PENN STATE

Gator Bowl - #23 West Virginia Mountaineers v Florida State Seminoles:  This was a down year for the Seminoles.  The Mountaineers should win big in this one, spoiling the last game of Bobby Bowden.  WEST VIRGINIA

Rose Bowl - #9 Ohio State Buckeyes v #7 Oregon Ducks:  The Buckeyes return to another Rose Bowl, and everyone who has watched Ohio State lose their last four BCS bowl games figure this to be another loss.  I'm not so sure.  Oregon plays well, but they haven't done well in bowl games.  Also, they rely too heavily on a small number of players - the Buckeyes defense can cover a small number.  They've had problems stopping teams full of talent like USC and Florida.  The Ducks may be due for a fall, although this will probably be a close game.  The Ducks could win on a final drive, but I think the Ohio State defense will stop them.  OHIO STATE

Sugar Bowl - #5 Cincinnati Bearcats v #6 Florida Gators:  At this point, we're not sure if Urban Meyer will be coaching the Gators or not, but we know Brian Kelly will be absent for the Bearcats.  How much that will affect them is uncertain.  We've noticed interim coaches do well in bowl games in recent years - the head coach is not as important on individual play calls in the modern football era.  Still, I think Florida simply has too many tools for Cincy to stop, and the Gators defense is potent.  I'm sure the Bearcats have studied film of Alabama's victory over Florida, but I don't think their defense can reproduce what Alabama did.  FLORIDA

January 2 - Since this day falls on a Saturday, we get many bowl games that normally would be on December 31 or January 1, although the first one has been later in recent years

International Bowl - South Florida Bulls v Northern Illinois Huskies:  Geez, why do we let two 7-5 teams play so late?  Oh yes, this bowl was designed to show Canada how some non-hyped conferences play.  Can the Huskies withstand the powerful turnover-causing Bulls defense?  I don't think so.  SOUTH FLORIDA

Papajohns.com Bowl - South Carolina Gamecocks v UConn Huskies:  Another team of huskies, another loss.  Few coaches prepare for a bowl game better than Stever Spurrier (Pete Carroll and Urban Meyer, perhaps).  South Carolina took some licks within the SEC, but they were unbeaten outside their conference this season, and that should continue in postseason.  SOUTH CAROLINA

Cotton Bowl - Oklahoma State Cowboys v Ole Miss Rebels:  Fox doesn't have a New Years double-header by moving this game, but Oklahoma State gets a larger audience to watch their dazzling offense.  That offense will give Ole Miss fits, especially early in the game.  The Rebels might start figuring it out, but how much of a lead will the Cowboys establish by then?  I think it'll be too large for Ole Miss to come back from, although they will give it a good try.  OKLAHOMA STATE

Liberty Bowl - Arkansas Razorbacks v #25 East Carolina Pirates:  Another Jan 1 emigrant, we see the sporadic Razorback spread offense face off against the Pirates defense.  That defense is good, and I think they'll keep the Razorbacks limited in yardage.  The Pirates offense isn't great, so this will be a low-scoring defensive battle - just they type that East Carolina likes.  EAST CAROLINA

Alamo Bowl - Michigan State Spartans v Texas Tech Red Raiders:  Can the Spartans slow down the Raiders red-hot offense?  Perhaps, but not enough for the Spartans offense to keep up.  This will be an offensive showdown, as the Raiders don't have much of a defense, but it'll still be Tech's show.  TEXAS TECH

Jan 4: Fiesta Bowl - #3 Boise State Broncos v #4 TCU Horned Frogs:  Traditionally on Jan 2nd, this one gets bumped to Monday Night.  They won't have competition, since the NFL has no Monday Night Football game, which should allow the entire country to watch these two BCS busters face off.  TCU comes from the Mountain West, who is being considered for an automatic BCS bid.  That alone might convince TCU to win the game, but they may also be capping off an unbeaten bowl record (the Mountain West is 3-0 in bowl games as I type this), the second time in three years the Mountain West would accomplish such a feat.  That'll add incentive.  TCU

Jan 5: Orange Bowl - #10 Iowa Hawkeyes v #8 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets:  No Big Ten team has been as successful in bowl games in the last decade as the Hawkeyes, but that streak is in jeopardy against the powerful Tech defense.  Iowa has lived and died on the fourth quarter comeback this season.  They might pull off another one, but I think the Tech defense will kill off that chance.  GEORGIA TECH

Jan 6:  GMAC Bowl - #13 Central Michigan Chippewas v Troy Trojans:  The Sun Belt Conference comes into this game unbeaten (1-0), but they won't exit that way.  The Chippewas are the real deal, as they proved against the Big Ten this season.  The only non-Sun Belt game the Trojans could win was against an FCS team.  CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Jan 7 - BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - #2 Texas Longhorns v #1 Alabama Crimson Tide:  We saw the Tide tear apart Florida's offense in the SEC Championship Game, while Nebraska showed how to heckle Texas.  Alabama will do an even better job than the Cornhuskers did, bringing a National title to Tuskaloosa.  ALABAMA

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