NFL Power Rankings, Week 16

Indianapolis Coach Jim Caldwell played it safe, and the Colts suffered their first loss of the season.  I stated that would happen if Caldwell pulled the starters, which he did midway through the third quarter.  If Sorgi wasn't injured it might have been a different story, but putting Curtis Painter on the field for his first regular season professional debut against a defense as tough as the Jets is a recipe for disaster, and it was.  The Jets came back from a mere five-point deficit to decimate the Colts in the fourth quarter. 

It seemed to be a bad week for the top teams all around, as the Saints and Vikings also lost.  There's no excuse for the latter two, as both kept their starters in the game.  The Saints offense was lackluster, and they should have won the game in regulation.  The Vikings offense line couldn't give Brett Favre time to get set, which bodes ill for the playoffs.  On the other hand, the Bears offense line did a great job of protecting Jay Cutler, something they hadn't been doing for weeks!

The playoff picture is getting clearer, and only one division title remains up for grabs.  I'll attempt to clarify the entire picture at the end of the column.  Let's get to the rankings first:

This week's ranking [Last week's position]
1.  Indianapolis Colts (14-1) [1] : Wouldn't have been such a poor showing if the starters played
2.  San Diego Chargers (12-3) [4] : They thoroughly trashed Tennessee to capture the second seed in the AFC
3.  New Orleans Saints (13-2) [2] : They have to start to worry how they'll do in the playoffs
4.  New England Patriots (10-5) [5] : A strong victory to capture the AFC East title
5.  Philadelphia Eagles (11-4) [6] : Competing for the second seed in the AFC, thanks to Minnesota's loss
6.  Minnesota Vikings (11-4) [3] : Two consecutive losses make things grim in Minnesota
7.  Green Bay Packers (10-5) [7] : Hottest team in the NFC North
8.  Dallas Cowboys (10-5) [8] : Can still win the NFC East
9.  Arizona Cardinals (10-5) [11] : Still eligible for the second seed in the NFC
10. Cincinnati Bengals (10-5) [10] : Looked a little lackluster against KC
11. New York Jets (8-7) [12] : Nice game against Indy's starting defense
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7) [15] : Still in the playoff hunt after two powerful wins in a row
13. Baltimore Ravens (8-7) [9] : Playoff chances in jeopardy
14. Houston Texans (8-7) [16]
15. Denver Broncos (8-7) [13] : Playoff contender, but not looking good
16. San Francisco 49ers (7-8) [17]
17. Atlanta Falcons (8-7) [18]
18. Carolina Panthers (7-8) [22] : Two weeks in a row the Panthers have hurt or destroyed the playoff hopes of a stronger opponent
19. New York Giants (8-7) [14] : Playoffs gone after getting demolished by Carolina
20. Chicago Bears (6-9) [23] : Now THAT'S the defense we know and love!
21. Miami Dolphins (7-8) [20]
22. Tennessee Titans (7-8) [19] : Playoff hopes gone - they should have switched to Young sooner
23. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8) [21]
24. Cleveland Browns (5-10) [28] : Two wins in a row - the Browns are preparing for next year
25. Tampa Bay Bucs (3-12) [30] : Nice defense against the hottest offense in the league
26. Seattle Seahawks (5-10) [26]
27. Buffalo Bills (5-10) [24]
28. Washington Redskins (4-11) [25] : No doubt about it -- Zorn's out
29. Oakland Raiders (5-10) [27]
30. Kansas City Chiefs (3-12) [28]
31. Detroit Lions (2-13) [31]
32. St Louis Rams (1-14) [32] : They have the first draft pick

Division rankings [Last week's position]
1.  AFC North [4] : HUGE week for all except Baltimore.  Only one team in the Top Ten, but three in the top half of the league
2.  NFC East [1] : The Giants and Redskins spoiled this division, one of two with two Top Ten teams
3.  AFC South [2] : Indy still leads the league, but most of the others are fading
4.  AFC East [3] : Good work for the Patriots, and the Jets are playoff contenders
5.  NFC South [6] : Everyone except the Saints improved nicely
6.  NFC North [5] : The Lions drag them down, and the Vikings loss didn't help
7.  AFC West [7] : Denver is fading; San Diego is all they really have
8.  NFC West [8]

Playoff picture:
AFC: Indy has the first seed and San Diego has the second.  New England and Cincy will host the first round.  Wildcard teams remain to be determined.  Denver and the Jets lead the pack, but Houston and Pitt are hot right now.  Denver plays KC, so they should win to capture the fifth seed.  The Jets play New England, so a loss is likely.  That opens the door for Baltimore, who play the Raiders.  I think New England will beat the Jets to capture the third seed, the Texans beat Cincy to knock them to fourth seed, but Baltimore takes the sixth seed from the upset-minded Texans

NFC:  The Saints are the first seed (and one of the weakest looking ones going into the playoffs).  The second seed is up for grabs.  Philly has the best position, but they have to play Dallas in Dallas.  I think the Cowboys will overcome their December jinx and upset Philly.  The Vikings will beat the Giants (barely), redeeming their performance in Chicago, and capture the second seed that they should have locked up two weeks ago.  Arizona loses to the Packers, allowing Dallas to capture the third seed and Green Bay jumps over Philly for the fifth seed.