The start of the college semester distracted me, but I want to get out my comments about last weekend's game and my predictions for this week's game. Let's move right into them...
In general it was a pretty one-sided weekend. Only the final game provided any measure of suspense. I haven't seen a playoff with so many games won by two scores or more (five of eight so far) in many years.
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints: This was touted as an offensive showdown, and it was a great showcase -- for the Saints. The Saints proved that they truly have a defense, as they pestered Warner. The Cardinals were nearly shut out in the second half, while the Saints rolled. Drew Brees' numbers were outstanding, and it gives them a tremendous confidence boost going into the NFC Championship Game, especially considering how they closed the regular season.
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts: The Ravens played a similar game plan against the Colts that won the game against the Patriots. Unfortunately for them, the result was different. The Ravens wanted to pressure the quarterback, shut down their opponents' running game, and push their own running game. While the Colts had less than 100 rushing yards and the Ravens piled up over 250 of them, the rest of the game plan didn't work as hoped. Manning was able to find targets quickly and get rid of the ball. Although rushed, he was not sacked, and the added pressure upfront meant open receivers downfield. As the Ravens fell behind, they couldn't come back. QB Joe Flacco did not complete a pass after the first quarter, and their running game couldn't score. Amazingly, though, the Ravens held the Colts to only six points through three quarters. They still had a chance until the Colts found the end zone. With two Colts touchdowns in the fourth quarter, the Ravens were left in the dust.
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings: I questioned whether Minnesota would hold up against the pressuring Cowboys defense. As it turned out, the pressure went the other way. The Vikings defense, led by intimidating Ray Edwards, was in Tony Romo's face all game. Romo was sacked six times, fumbled twice, and had several passes batted down at the line.
As dominant as the defense was, though, the offense was the star of the game. Brett Favre had the best postseason game of his lengthy career. Although he only threw 24 times, he threw for 234 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. He ended his postseason woes against the Cowboys, who had defeated his Packers three times previously in postseason play. Favre's numbers were great, but they were supported by the excellent play of wideout Sidney Rice. Rice caught six of Favre's fifteen completions, gained 141 of the 234 passing yards, and scored three of the four touchdowns. "Workhorse" doesn't even begin to describe his play.
New York Jets at San Diego Chargers: A close and hard-fought game, this one really should have been won by the Chargers. It came down to field goals, an area usually dominated by San Diego. After all, their kicker held the record for consecutive field goals coming into the game. That record was shattered horribly, as Nate Kaeding missed all three of his attempts, causing the Chargers to lose 17-14.
It looked dismal for San Diego early in the fourth quarter. They trailed 17-7 after scoring the first touchdown, and they hadn't been able to move the ball well since the first quarter. The Jets blitzes weren't upsetting Philip Rivers too much, but he was releasing the ball quicker and with more force than his receivers were used to -- dropped balls were a steady phenomenom. The Chargers got life in the fourth quarter, though. After gaining excellent field position on a turnover, they moved close enough for an easy 40-yard field goal. Unfortunately, Kaeding pulled it to the right. The Chargers defense toughened against the Jets, preventing further scoring. The Chargers scored a touchdown with just over two minutes left, and life was again restored. An onside kick failed, though, and the Jets were able to gain a first down and run out the clock.
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
AFC: New York Jets (11-7) at Indianapolis Colts (15-2) : The Jets are feeling confident after escaping the Chargers, and think they can win. They aren't foolish enough to automatically assume victory after beating them in the regular season, because that was the Colts "give away" game that ended their unbeaten streak. The Jets know that most of the starters didn't play past early in the second quarter, so this will be a different Colts team.
The Jets rely on the blitz, and Peyton Manning is excellent in avoiding the blitz. The Ravens play a similar defense (after all, Coach Ryan installed that defense before assuming the Jets head position), and the Colts overcame that. Granted, the Ravens played them close, but the Colts finally broke them in the fourth quarter. The Jets have a bigger problem - they don't have the Ravens' running back tandem. Without the ability to gain 200+ yards rushing, they will have to rely on rookie QB Mark Sanchez more. That sounds ominous to me. I like Manning and company's ability to score, even under adversity, and I don't see the Jets able to come back from a deficit. COLTS, 24-10
NFC: Minnesota Vikings (13-4) at New Orleans Saints (14-3) : This game has the potential to be another offensive showdown, but I think the defenses will have a say in this one. The Vikings like to pressure the quarterback by stacking the sides and pulling around guards. The Saints believe in better pass coverage, making it hard for teams to get long plays. Against these opponents, both strategies have pros and cons. Certainly the Saints coverage will cause Favre to either force plays, leading to interceptions, or hold on too late, leading to a sack. However, that weakens the line, opening up Adrian Peterson to have a strong game. The Vikings approach gives line support to slow Reggie Bush and the running game, but it opens Bush and Jeremy Shockey as outlet receivers so that Drew Brees can avoid the sack.
I think the most important offensive tools in this game will be Adrian Peterson and the Saints' short passing game. Peterson could gain nearly 200 yards. If Favre can prevent serious errors, that will make the Vikings a threat. Drew Brees is likely to throw over forty times in the game, and will find Bush and Shockey his favorite targets. If Bush can avoid fumbling the ball, the Saints will control the pace of the game.
Reggie seems to be controlling his fumbling better this season, while Favre still can get into interception trouble when pressured. I think the Saints will play the more flawless game, and capture the victory, allowing the Saints their first Super Bowl trip EVER. SAINTS, 27-24
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