NFL Week 17 picks

We have the final week to go.  The AFC has some playoff spots for grabs while the NFC has seeds to determine, including which team has a first week bye.  There's plenty on the line in many of these games, which should lead to great plays.  Due to the holidays and bowl games there aren't any non-Sunday games (including Monday Night), so by Sunday night we'll know the playoff games.

Sunday early games:
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Bucs:  The Bucs have won a couple of upsets in a row, but I don't think they'll get a third.  Neither have playoff hopes, but the Falcons want to finish strongly.  It's also likely to be Ryan's game back, so he'll want a good game.  FALCONS, 27-17

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions:  Will the Bears suffer a letdown after their shocking Monday Night upset?  I don't think so.  The Lions are struggling.  They are better than they've been since 2006, but they still can't compare with the Bears.  Their pass rush is practically non-existent, so Cutler will be comfortable.  When he's comfortable, he makes the plays.  BEARS, 27-10

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills:  The Colts will sit some of their key players, but the Bills should still lose.  This isn't a top defense the Colts are facing, and last week's experience should help Painter.  COLTS, 23-13

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns:  Jacksonville is falling apart.  Could they fall far enough for the Browns to beat them?  Possibly, but I'll pick a close Jags win.  JAGS, 20-16

New England Patriots at Houston Texans:  There's little difference between the third seed and fourth seed for the opening playoff weekend, but it could make a difference later.  Bill Belichik knows that, which is why the Patriots will battle hard for that third seed.  The Texans need a victory, and then help, to reach the playoffs.  I don't think that win will come, though.  PATS, 24-20

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers:  The Saints gained the top seed last week, but they backed into it.  They've had two tough losses, and they know how important it is to enter the playoffs on a win.  They'll fight for this victory, and the Panthers are disarrayed enough that they should get it.  SAINTS, 27-17

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings:  The Giants might want to help their division winner to get the second seed, but I don't think the Vikings will allow it.  Their running game was off last week, and Favre hasn't been sharp for the past three weeks.  If Childress and Favre mended their fences this week, the Vikings should be motivated enough to win this one.  VIKES, 31-20

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins:  Pittsburgh still has a shot at the playoffs, and they'll make the most of it.  Miami's wildcard won't fool the Steelers defense, and the Dolphins secondary can be burned.  STEELERS, 17-10

San Francisco 49ers at St Louis Rams:  Anyone facing the Rams has to be favored to win, and the 49ers defense just sweetens the deal.  49ERS, 23-3

Sunday late games:
Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders:  Baltimore has a shot at the playoffs, which gives them enough incentive to win this game.  RAVENS, 16-6

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals:  Green Bay can't get the division title, but a strong playoff seed is their goal.  The Cardinals defense hasn't been consistent, and I think the Pack will stretch it.  The Cardinals offense will keep it close, though.  PACK, 27-23

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos:  The Broncos are going without leading receiver Brandon Marshall, but they still have enough receivers to overcome the pitiful Chiefs defense.  The Broncos get a playoff berth with the win.  BRONCOS, 23-9

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys:  The Cowboys have the momentum right now, and playing at home should help them.  The Eagles are talented, but they've made some key errors at important times.  If they do that in this game, they give the division title to the Cowboys.  COWBOYS, 20-17

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks:  The Seahawks defensive line isn't strong, which plays right into the hands of Vince Young and the Titans.  TITANS, 20-16

Washington Redskins at San Diego Chargers:  The Chargers have the second seed, so they'd be inclined to rest some key players.  Even if they do that, I think they have enough tools to press the Redskins defense.  CHARGERS, 20-13

Sunday evening - Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets:  The Jets were given three Christmas gifts last week as all of the elements they needed to control their playoff destiny occurred.  Now, they need to beat Cincy to finish it off.  Both teams have strong defenses, so this will likely be a defensive battle.  That actually favors Rex Ryan and the Jets.  JETS, 16-13