NFL Week 17 picks

Many playoff spots are determined, but several are still up for grabs.  This week, I'll examine playoff seeds, not division titles.  That analysis will follow the picks.  Amazingly, all of the games are divisional ones.  It's an interesting way to finish the season.

Sunday early games:
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets:  The Jets are playing their starters, even though they've already clinched the playoffs.  They apparently want to get the fifth seed instead of the sixth, to prevent playing the Patriots if they win the opening round.  That bodes ill for Buffalo, who have fought hard since Ryan Fitzpatrick has taken over as QB, but haven't quite been able to "seal the deal."  Unless the Jets pull their starters for the second half, I don't think they'll win this one, either.  JETS, 24-17

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons:  The Falcons need a victory to win the NFC South and clinch top seed in the NFC playoffs.  I think they'll do that, even if they rest Matty Ice and other starters during the second half.  The Panthers offense has sputtered badly this season; it's the worst in the league in most categories.  Atlanta should have no trouble locking in the top seed.  FALCONS, 29-16

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens:  Baltimore still has a chance to win the AFC North, and a first week bye at the same time.  That means they'll play their starters, and crush the struggling Cincinnati Bengals.  RAVENS, 23-16

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots:  This game could go either way.  Since the Patriots have already clinched the top seed in the playoffs, Belichik might rest his guys.  In that case, I think the Dolphins are good enough to win.  If the Pats play their starting offense for even the first half, I think they'll establish too large a lead to lose.  Since they haven't announced which way they're going, I can't pick this game.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions:  Brett Favre is out of action.  Joe Webb engineered an upset last week, but nobody knew what he could do.  Detroit will be prepared.  The Lions are actually a decent team this year, and this final victory will prove that.  LIONS, 23-17

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs:  The Chiefs are the third seed in the AFC, and they can't improve that.  They could relax, but all released reports state that Matt Cassel and most of the starters will be playing.  I'm sure how long they will play, though.  If they play long enough, the Chiefs will win.  The Raiders have survived by their defense; they aren't great at coming back from a deficit.  I think the starters will establish a large enough gap to win.  CHIEFS, 23-20

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns:  The Steelers are playing for the AFC North title and second seed in the playoffs.  That will motivate them.  The Browns aren't strong enough to hold them back.  STEELERS, 24-13

Tampa Bay Bucs at New Orleans Saints:  The Saints still have a chance to win the NFC South.  It would require a Saints win and a Falcons loss.  The Bucs are playing for a slim chance at the playoffs, so this is the first game where both teams have something at stake.  The Saints have been playing very well recently, winning seven of their last eight games.  That's an excellent streak, which shows that they have their offense working.  With Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas back to full service, they'll be too tough for the Bucs defense to stop.  SAINTS, 24-20

Sunday late games:
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers:  Like the Vikings-Lions game, this one features two teams with no playoff chances.  For the Cardinals, they want to finish the season on a two-game winning streak.  Derek Anderson also wants to wipe out the memory of this sideline antics and post-game rant.  For the 49ers, they want to redeem themselves for the loss of their coach.  This will be a tight game, not clean on offense, but should see a win for the home team.  49ERS, 20-16

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers:  Both teams are playing for important positions, although Chicago will know if they could get theirs before the game begins.  Chicago has locked a first week bye; they are playing for the top seed.  They can capture that if Atlanta loses to Carolina, but I don't think that'll happen.  Thus, I think the Bears will rest their starters, giving Green Bay the chance to clinch the playoffs  PACK, 24-16

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles:  The Eagles have locked the third seed, and that's immovable.  We already know Michael Vick won't play, and other starters will be rested.  That allows Dallas to win one more for their interim coach, helping to propel Jason Garrett to the top candidates for the permanent head coach job.  COWBOYS, 24-23

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans:  The Jags need a win to have a chance at the playoffs, but things look grim.  Both David Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew are injured.  Trent Edwards is good, but the loss of TE Zach Miller makes it harder for him.  I think the Texans' defense will dominate this game, and allow the Texans to knock out the Jags.  TEXANS, 23-20

New York Giants at Washington Redskins:  The Giants need a victory AND a Packers loss to reach the playoffs.  The Giants will pull out all of the stops to win this game.  As they proved in the Super Bowl against the unbeaten Patriots, the Giants can be most dangerous when they come into a game with their backs against the wall.  Washington's defense will make it a tough game, but I think the Giants will prevail.  GIANTS, 23-16

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos:  The Chargers are out of playoff contention, but they want this game to prevent a losing divisional record.  The Broncos have struggled mightily this season, especially on defense; they have allowed more points than any other team.  The Chargers offense has been kicking it up recently, which makes it dark for the Broncos' chances.  CHARGERS, 24-20

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts:  Peyton Manning is starting to get into sync with his new receivers, and some old ones are coming back from injury.  Furthermore, they need this victory to clinch the AFC South.  They'll also know if the third seed is possible (if KC loses, they could capture the third seed with a win).  That much incentive gives the advantage to Indy, although the Titans defense will keep it close.  COLTS, 27-23

Sunday Night -- St Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks:  The winner of this game wins the LAST division title -- the NFC West.  If Seattle wins, a team with a losing record will capture a playoff berth.  I am never in favor of that.  I'd pick the Rams just to prevent that, but the Rams also have the talent to win.  Sam Bradford is getting used to the NFL, and he's got the team going in the right directions.  Seattle may start Matt Hasselbeck, but he's not 100% healthy, and his injured hip will limit his mobility.  The Rams can rush the passer, and they'll likely knock out Hasselbeck in the first half.  His backup, Charlie Whitehurst, is not great, so the loss of Hasselbeck will kill Seattle's chances.  RAMS, 23-13

AFC Playoffs:
1st seed: New England Patriots
2nd seed:  This will be the winner of the AFC North.  Pittsburgh has the edge - they win if both the Steelers and Ravens lose, and definitely win if the Steelers beat Cleveland.  I think this one will belong to Pittsburgh
3rd seed:  It's currently KC.  Indy can capture it if the Chiefs lose and the Colts win
4th seed:  Likely to be the AFC South winner, but the Colts could leap up if KC loses.  I think the Jags will lose due to key injuries, and Indy will win.  That means KC must overcome Oakland, or the Chiefs land here.
5th seed:  Baltimore has the inside track.  If they win, they have it.  If the Jets win AND Ravens lose, the Jets land here.  I think Baltimore will beat Cincy to capture this seed.
6th seed:  The Jets currently have his slot, and the only way they move up is to beat Buffalo AND hope Cincy beats Baltimore

NFC Playoffs:
1st seed:  Atlanta will capture this with an easy win over Carolina.  Chicago has to hope the Panthers pull off a miracle.
2nd seed:  This one basically belongs to Chicago, as Atlanta should win easily.
3rd seed:  Philadelphia Eagles
4th seed:  This one belongs to the winner of the Rams-Seahawks contest
5th seed:  The Saints have this one, as I doubt Atlanta will lose.  Basically, the runner-up of the NFC South has this spot
6th seed:  This one is really up for grabs.  Three teams have a chance:  Green Bay, New York Giants, and Tampa Bay.  The Pack have it if they win, or if all three lose.  The Giants clinch if they win and the Pack lose.  The Bucs can sneak in if they win AND the other two lose.