NCAA Bowls, Part II - The New Year

Time to finish the bowl predictions!  I'm not doing really well, going 5-4 in the first nine, but I'll keep plugging away here.

Fri Dec 31:
Car Care Bowl - South Florida Bulls (7-5) v Clemson Tigers (6-6):  The Bulls have a good bowl record, as skimpy as it is, and Clemson has been too inconsistent this year.  The Tigers have been streaky, and this long gap between games will cool their streak.  The Bulls defense makes this a low-scoring affair.  SOUTH FLORIDA

Sun Bowl - Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-5) v Miami Hurricanes (7-5):  The Irish are feeling good about themselves, despite a mediocre record.  On the other side, Miami has to break in a new coach; a bowl game is not a good place to do that.  NOTRE DAME

Liberty Bowl - #19 Central Florida Golden Knights (10-3) v Georgia Bulldogs (6-6):  SEC fans think their teams can win any bowl bowl, regardless of opponent.  Georgia won't take a Conference USA team seriously, but they should.  Central Florida is an offensive powerhouse, more than Georgia can take.  This may be a huge blowout.  CENTRAL FLORIDA

Chick-fil-A Bowl - #25 South Carolina Gamecocks (9-4) v #24 Florida State Seminoles (9-4):  This might be the closest game this year.  These two are fairly evenly matched.  Both teams focus on defense and ball control offensive schemes.  Jimbo Fischer's first year as Florida State coach was pretty good, but he just continued what Bobby Bowden started.  Stever Spurrier has South Carolina moving well.  I give the edge to South Carolina, but this game may be won by the last team to hold the ball.  SOUTH CAROLINA

Sat Jan 1:
This is an interesting day.  Five of the six games feature Big Ten teams, and we have a streak of three consecutive games featuring the Big Ten against the SEC.  The SEC expects to win all three of those, but I don't agree.

Ticket City Bowl - Northwestern Wildcats (7-5) v Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5):  Tech has been sketchy this season, winning big sometimes but struggling at others.  Northwestern started off well, but faltered late in the season.  Which team will show up for each team?  This one could really go either way, and the Big Ten typically opens New Years Day with a win (albeit usually in the Outback Bowl), so I have to do my first "no pick".

Outback Bowl - Penn State Nittany Lions (7-5) v Florida Gators (7-5):  Florida has a great history against Big Ten teams, but the Big Ten has a terrific record in the Outback Bowl.  Besides, Florida has to deal with the departure of Urban Meyer, and this year's version of the Gators is not a team to bank on a new coach.  The Gators have been confused, especially offensively, so you know the Nittany Lions' defense will take advantage.  Linebacker U will shut down the Gators, and probably force a turnover or two.  PENN STATE

Capital One Bowl - #9 Michigan State Spartans (11-1) v #15 Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3):  The defending BCS Champs face the Big Ten runner-up, a team who really deserved to go to the Rose Bowl.  The Capital One Bowl is another one where the Big Ten has shown up big, although usually with Michigan.  The state will still be represented well.  Alabama's defense hasn't been as strong as they were last year, which gives the Spartans a huge opening.  This team was the biggest scoring team in the conference until Wisconsin caught fire the last four weeks, so we know they can score.  Alabama's offense has been "off" this season.  The Spartans' defense is good, but not outstanding, so Alabama will score some points.  I don't think they can keep up with Michigan State, though.  MICHIGAN STATE

Gator Bowl - Michigan Wolverines (7-5) v Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4):  Everybody thinks Michigan stinks in bowl games, but that tradition has been eradicated in past decade.  Mississippi State started the season strongly, and seemed in line to battle for the SEC title, but then they fell apart late.  Will they get themselves back together?  I'm not sure, because I'm not sure they know what went wrong.  They just faced some tough competition.  Michigan didn't live up to their early season strength, as Rich Rodriguez still can't beat quality conference competition.  The Bulldogs are out of conference, though, and they play a scheme that Rich Rod knows very well.  For those reasons, I like Michigan to scrape out a close victory.  MICHIGAN

Rose Bowl - #3 TCU Horned Frogs (12-0) v #6 Wisconsin Badgers (11-1):  Once again, an unbeaten TCU fails to play for the National Championship.  They were ticked off the last time, and they lost their bowl game.  Could history repeat itself?  You'd hope the Frogs would have learned, but they still talk like they should have been considered for the BCS National Championship Game, and this time they were booted for TWO unbeaten teams.  Wisconsin is a "grind 'em out" team.  TCU's defense is good, but they are a bit slow.  Wisconsin will be able to score, and they will retain possession for long periods.  They will wear down TCU's defense, who haven't had to play so hard for a full game, given their easy victories this season.  Also, TCU has lived on the turnover, and the Badgers rarely cough up the ball.  WISCONSIN

Fiesta Bowl - UConn Huskies (8-4) v #11 Oklahoma Sooners (11-2):  Let's face it, the Huskies were lucky to win the Big East.  The Sooners are a strong team, and the Huskies defense hasn't had to face a team as strong offensively as Oklahoma.  This one will be horribly one-sided.  OKLAHOMA

Mon Jan 3 - Orange Bowl - #5 Stanford Cardinal (11-1) v #10 Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2):  Stanford doesn't have much bowl experience, but their coach knows about these situations.  Jim Harbaugh may act the fool to the media sometimes, but when he buckles down, he prepares well.  Frank Beamer always has a few trick plays in his repertoire, but Stanford's defense can be just as sneaky.  These two are fairly evenly matched, but I like a strong defensive stand in the fourth quarter leading to a victory.  STANFORD

Tues Jan 4 - Sugar Bowl - #4 Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) v #13 Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2):  Everyone is talking about how poorly Ohio State has played against the SEC in BCS bowls, but in college, each year provides a different team.  Ohio State is playing with intensity, as Terrell Pryor and his comrades face a potential five-game suspension to start next season.  For them, this is a crucial game, as they may never play together again.  Pryor and a couple of the other suspended players are considering the NFL draft, but they aren't ranked high.  Thus, this game is their chance to boost those ratings and improve their draft options.  On the other side, the Razorbacks are new to BCS bowls, and haven't playing in many bowl games, period.  More importantly, let's consider the Arkansas QB.  Many people forget that Ryan Mallet originally played for Michigan.  The Buckeyes hate ANYTHING related to Michigan, so they want to flatten Mallet.  I think he'll be pestered all game, and get flustered.  I predict three interceptions, one returned for a touchdown, that contribute to a Buckeyes rout.  OHIO STATE

Thurs Jan 6 - GoDaddy,.com Bowl - Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (6-6) v Miami Ohio Red Hawks (9-4):  My loyal fans know how I feel about these post-New Years non-BCS bowls.  It diminished the honor of the BCS games - the postseason should end with the BCS games.  I understood the philosophy of the International Bowl, as early January is Canada's holiday season, but no other bowl should be scheduled here.  Middle Tennessee State actually has a chance to do something the Sun Belt never has -- go unbeaten in bowls when more than one team plays.  Unfortunately, I don't think they'll do that.  Miami Ohio played well, and the MAC was a stronger conference than people thought.  The Raiders may jump out to an early lead, but the Red Hawks defense will wear them down.  MIAMI OHIO

Fri Jan 7 - Cotton Bowl - #18 LSU Tigers (10-2) v #23 Texas A&M Aggies (9-3):  The Aggies finished the season strongly, but the long gap between games may hurt their young team.  LSU has a great bowl record, and they always play well in bowl games.  The Tigers defense may not have been as strong as usual, but it's good enough to slow the Aggies, allowing the Tigers offense a chance to get coordinated and stage a second half comeback.  LSU

Sat Jan 8 - Compass Bowl - Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5) v Kentucky Wildcats (6-6):  I'd love for the Panthers to beat Kentucky, but I don't think so.  The SEC does well in bowl games, and Pitt has two downsides:  they were struggling late in the season, and they go into this game with their head coach.  The departure of Dave Wannstedt will put the Panthers into a tailspin that will allow Kentucky to win easily.  KENTUCKY

Sun Jan 9 - Fight Hunger Bowl - Boston College Eagles (7-5) v #8 Nevada Wolf Pack (12-1):  Nevada should win easily.  Here's a team that beat the high-powered Fresno State.  Although they got help from the Bulldogs' placekicker, keeping the score that close was a testiment to the power of Nevada's defense.  Will the Eagles even score as much as ten points?  It seems unlikely.  NEVADA

Mon Jan 10 - BCS National Championship Game - #2 Orgeon Ducks (12-0) v #1 Auburn Tigers (13-0):  Let's face it, the Pac-10 does not have a good history of winning BCS title games, with the exception of USC.  The SEC has dominated that game, and the Tigers have a high-powered offense to match their strong defense.  Oregon's offense is just as strong, but defensively lack the power of the Tigers.  AUBURN