Thursday, January 5, 2012

NFL 2011 Playoffs - Wildcard round

Let's start with the top teams and divisions.  I'm always interested to see if, due to the division preference in picking playoff teams, whether the top teams are in the playoffs.  Looks good for this year.

Top TWELVE teams
1.  Green Bay Packers (15-1) : top seed in the NFC is the top team overall, despite resting some key players in the final game
2.  New Orleans Saints (13-3) : They may be the third seed in the NFC, but that offense is pretty unbeatable
3.  New England Patriots (13-3) : The top team in the AFC slides in here, which shows that the NFC is likely to win the Super Bowl again.
4.  San Francisco 49ers (13-3) : The top defense makes the second seed in the NFC an attractive pick
5.  Baltimore Ravens (12-4) : Unbeaten in the AFC North,  but their defense is slipping
6.  Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) : They regained the top defense in the conference ranking
7.  Houston Texans (10-6) : A three-game losing streak coming into the playoffs is not a good sign
8.  Detroit Lions (10-6) : The Lions lit up the scoreboard but couldn't surpass the Pack under a 2nd string QB.  How do YOU think they'll do in the playoffs?
9.  Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) : The only non-playoff team in the NFL in the Top 12, this team had strong highs
10. Atlanta Falcons (10-6) : Matt Ryan and the Falcons proved they can score points, but can the defense stop teams?
11. San Diego Chargers (8-8) : Once again they poured it on in the latter half of the season.  If they can start strong, they can return to the playoffs
12. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) : The Bengals didn't quite live up to their early success, but they reach the playoffs

Division ranks
1.  AFC North : With three playoff teams, this division clearly leads
2.  NFC North : The Bears redeemed themselves in the final week, and the Lions break a decade-long playoff drought
3.  AFC East : The Pats carried this division after the Jets and Bills dissolved
4.  NFC South : The Bucs pulled them down, but the rest of the division showed strength
5.  NFC East : The division winner has the fewest wins since the AFL-NFL merger, but these teams were close enough to make them an interesting division
6.  NFC West : How did they jump up?  Late drives by Seattle and Arizona helped overcome the Rams
7.  AFC South : A collapse by Jacksonville and the Colts' gain of the first draft pick shows where this division needs work
8.  AFC West : The better team didn't win the division, and the rest couldn't even score as many as 75 less points than they gave up

#6 Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) at #3 Houston Texans (10-6) : T.J. Yates has been holding his own against lesser teams, but a three-game losing streak is no way to enter the playoffs.  Cincy didn't have a great streak prior to the playoffs, either, as they had lost three of their last four before the final game.  Bengals QB Andy Dalton is recovering from the flu, but their offense is clicking better than the Texans.  Can the Texans defense slow the Bengals?  I think so.  Will they slow them enough for the sputtering Texans' offense to score more?  That one I question.  BENGALS by four

#6 Detroit Lions (10-6) at #3 New Orleans Saints (13-3) : This is the only game where I clearly favor the home team.  Detroit can score points, but no team is more effective offensively than the Saints.  The Lions' defense just isn't capable of slowing them, and the Lions offense won't be able to keep up.  SAINTS by twelve

#5 Atlanta Falcons (10-6) at #4 New York Giants (9-7) : This one might be the closest game of all four.  On paper, the Falcons should win easily.  The Giants, however, seem to find second life in the playoffs.  They will prove to be a tough team to beat.  The Falcons are 0-2 in the playoffs since Matt Ryan joined them.  They typically hurt themselves with penalties.  If they can play cleaner ball, they should win.  If not, watch out for a Giants upset.  FALCONS by three

#5 Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) at #4 Denver Broncos (8-8) : The Steelers are playing without their top runner and safety, and QB Ben Roethlisberger is playing injured.  This seems to be the perfect formula for another magical Tebow comeback.  The obstacle to that?  The high-powered Steelers defense, whose strong pass rush will keep Tebow on the defensive most of the game.  STEELERS by five

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