NFL 2011 Playoffs - Divisional round

It was an interesting wildcard round.  Despite all of the talk about the power of the wildcards, the home teams (divisional winners) all won.  That by itself makes it an unusual year, as there is frequently an upset in the first week of the playoffs.  Of course, there were TWO upsets this week, when you consider which teams were favored, so perhaps it was more normal after all.

We started the playoffs with two teams who struggled going into the playoffs.  There was no clear favorite, and my pick of Cincy was the closest of all of the games.  As it turned out, this game had nearly the largest margin of victory.  Houston's defense found themselves again, and they pestered rookie Andy Dalton all day.  Fellow rookie, and third string QB, T.J. Yates looked good.  He had gradually been improving each week as the season concluded, and he continued his development in this game.  It would be interesting to see how this defense would deal with New England, and how well Yates could move the Texans against the weakened Pats defense.  We may not get to see that, though.

The next game was expected to be a blowout, but it was closer than any other game except the overtime thriller.  For a while Matthew Stafford and the Lions maintained pace with the high-powered Saints, but the Saints took over in the second half.  The next day, though, the Giants took over the whole game.  After Atlanta scored on a safety, the Giants defense clamped down, stifling Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense all game.  Eli was competent but not stellar, but he didn't have to be.  He played mostly mistake-free football and let the defense control the game.

The last game was the most exciting.  We didn't know how much the injuries and other player losses would affect the Steelers.  Big Ben played okay on his injured ankle, but the new center caused some problems.  The secondary seemed slower and lacked anticipation, and Tim Tebow exploited that.  The Broncos matched the Steelers in scoring; in fact, the Broncos led for much of the game.  Pittsburgh took a late lead, but the Broncos tied it up.  Pittsburgh couldn't score at the end of the game, so we went to overtime.  This was the first overtime with the new rules, but the rules didn't need to be invoked.  Denver scored a touchdown on the first play of the game (ironically, with the longest play from scrimmage in the ENTIRE game!), and they advanced to the next round.

Denver's victory was perhaps the biggest surprise of the wildcard round, but can they continue to surprise?  The Pats defense is worse than the Steelers, but their offense is much better.  How will this game play out?  I see this one being on offensive shootout on the order of the Lions against the Saints, but I like New England's chances.  No coach prepares better for postseason games than Bill Belichick, and no team has more postseason experience than the Patriots.  This game may be close for much of the time, but the Patriots will determine some ways to slow Tebow and pull away in the fourth quarter.  PATS by six

Let's look at the other games:
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (14-3) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (13-3) : Whoa!  Like the Giants/Atlanta game last week, this one could go either way.  It's basically a battle of the top offense against the top defense.  Alex Smith and the 49ers offense will be able to move against the Saints defense, but the key will be slowing down the Saints.  If any defense can do it, it would be the 49ers.  We also have to consider that the Saints do not play well on the road in the postseason.  Remember, the year they won the Super Bowl they were the Number One seed; they never had to play on the road.  The Saints could overwhelm the 49ers defense, but in contests of top offenses against top defenses, the defense wins in nearly 2/3rds of those, so I have to pick San Fran.  49ERS by four

HOUSTON TEXANS (11-6) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (12-4) : Houston's defense won the battle against Cincy, but the Ravens have a better defense.  They also have a better offense, and it's based on successfully running the ball, which gives them more control over the clock and the momentum.  Yates is still "green" enough to need momentum to boost his performance; the Ravens should be able to shake that up.  Defense is the strength of both of these teams, so expect this to be a fairly low-scoring affair.  RAVENS by six

NEW YORK GIANTS (10-7) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (15-1) : The Giants defense shut down Atlanta, but they can't count on doing that to Green Bay.  Unlike other years, Green Bay comes into the playoffs healthy, which makes them even more deadly.  The Giants might slow the Pack early, but they won't sustain it.  This game may be close (within ten points) at the half, but the second half will be Green Bay's.  PACK by twenty