I shift my NCAA College Football preview to the central part of the country, looking at the Big Ten, Big XII, Mid-American Conference, and Conference USA.
Big Ten - Legends Division
1. Michigan Wolverines (7-1/10-2): Michigan has the best shot at a conference title since the 1990's. QB Denard Robinson is square in the Heisman talk, as he is deadly with both his arm and his legs. Robinson is working to be a "pass first" quarterback, but his ability to run will cause additional preparation for pass rushing defenses. Their defense looks better than last year, even with the replacement of two key linemen.
2. Michigan State Spartans (6-2/9-3): Andrew Maxwell replaces Kurt Cousins as quarterback. Maxwell has little experience, but a strong running game and stingy defense will help give him time to get comfortable. After opening against Boise State, the Spartans have a fairly easy schedule until they face Michigan on Oct 20th. After that, though, they face some tough conference opponents, many on the road.
3. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-3/9-3): Their running game is secure, but they need improvement from quarterback Taylor Martinez. They have plenty of room for improvement, as their passing game was ranked 104th last season.
4. Iowa Hawkeyes (5-3/8-4): Iowa loves to pass, but they have some problems with that. They need to break in a new quarterback, and spring practice injuries to wide receivers leaves that corps thin. It will take time for the new offense to gel. They are likely to lose to both in-state rival Iowa State and conference foe Michigan State before they start to see offensive momentum.
5. Northwestern Wildcats (2-6/5-7): New quarterback Kain Colter takes on the spread offense. Like Iowa, it may take time to gel, and a weak defense makes things worse. They also face a tough conference schedule, and may be one of the few conference teams to lose to the scandal-stripped Penn State Nittany Lions.
6. Minnesota Golden Gophers (0-8/2-10): They have many returning starters, but they only reached a 3-9 record last year. With improvement from many of their opponents, the Gophers again bring up the rear in this division.
Big Ten - Leaders Division
Scandals stripped both Ohio State and Penn State, leaving opportunities for the other teams.
1. Wisconsin Badgers (7-1/11-1): The Badgers lost QB Russell Wilson, but the return of Monte Ball wipes away any concern. Ball is an early Heisman favorite, even behind a slightly restructured line. The Badgers have many strong linemen, so the offense line will still be powerful. New quarterback Danny O'Brien has a deeply talented pool of wide receivers and tight ends to help his transition to starter. New offensive coordinator Matt Canada likes the spread formation, and uses it even for running plays. That might help confuse defenses early.
2. Illinois Fighting Illini (5-3/8-4): I would never have thought that my Alma Mater had a shot to place so high, but Purdue isn't quite ready, and key attrition suffered by Ohio State and Penn State opened the door. New coach Tim Beckman likes the spread, which favors backup quarterback Reilly O'Toole. Beckman says he doesn't favor rotating quarterbacks, so if starter Nathan Scheelhaase doesn't improve his consistency, O'Toole may take over starting duties. The Illini defense gained with a Penn State transfer. They couldn't get the Nittany Lions' top runner, but Josh Ferguson and Donovonn Young looked good in spring practice, so the inexperienced backfield might do fine. A tough road schedule hurts their chances, but I still like them to improve from their six-game slide last season.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-4/7-5): Preseason analysts have tremendous faith in QB Braxton Miller and new coach Urban Meyer, placing the Buckeyes in the Top 25 despite the housecleaning after "tattoo gate" and Tressel's departure. I think Ohio State will take more time. Their defense is still sturdy, but Meyer plays with offenses. He brings the spread offense to Columbus, and it will take time for these "run first" players to adjust. Remember how long it took Michigan to adjust to RichRod's spread offense? It took two years. While Meyer may have the Buckeyes flowing by the end of this season, it will take nearly all season for them to adjust.
4. Purdue Boilermakers (3-5/6-6): The offensive backfield looks good, if they can avoid injuries. If Purdue wants to do well in this conference, they need to improve their defense. A favorable conference, with easy opponents to close the season, should help get them to a bowl game.
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (2-6/4-8): As of the writing of this blog, the Lions have lost 14 players who played significant time last season. This lean squad is thin at wide receiver and lost many key players: their two best running backs, linemen on both offense and defense, and the defensive secondary. This will be a tough year for QB Matt McGloin and new coach Bill O'Brien.
6. Indiana Hoosiers (0-8/1-11): Another long year for Indy, who won't even sneak past weakened Penn State.
Big Ten winner: Wisconsin Badgers
Big XII
This conference added TCU and West Virginia to replace Missouri and Texas A&M, so they might have even improved their competiveness.
1. West Virginia Mountaineers (7-2/10-2): The Mountaineers are primed to win the conference in their first season. QB Geno Smith and a deep receiving corps gives the Mountaineers the best passing offense in the conference. Their "no huddle" style will tire opposing defenses, who have rarely seen that.The Mountaineers also benefit from a favorable schedule, as they face the toughest conference opponents at home.
2. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2/10-2): QB Landry Jones has a thin receiving corps, but running back Dominique Whaley and all-purpose ball-handler Trey Millard will help. The defense has also seen improvement under the tutelage of new coach Mike Stoops.
3. Kansas State Wildcats (6-3/8-4): QB Collin Klein and his stable of receivers look to light up the scoreboard, but if the Wildcats want to compete for the conference title, they need better effort from their defense.
4. Texas Longhorns (5-4/8-4): I don't share the optimism of other preseason analysts who have made Texas a Top 25 team. Their defense is strong, filled with many returning starters, but the offense looks shaky. QB David Ash must improve his consistency and reduce interceptions. They have a good backfield, but a thin receiving corps makes Texas questionable if they fall behind.
5. TCU Horned Frogs (4-5/7-5): Former Southwest Conference member rejoins some of their old conference mates, and they are tooled to do well. QB Casey Pachall and favorite target Josh Boyce lead a powerful offense, but the defense took a hit in the off-season due to drug arrests and grade probations. I don't think they can stop some of the high-powered offenses they will face in this conference.
6. Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-5/7-5): Most of their powerful offense returns, but the defense remains a weak spot. They might improve from last season's 119th rank, but I don't think they'll improve enough.
7. Iowa State Cyclones (3-6/6-6): QB Steele Jantz won the quarterback battle, but he knows he'll be the starter only as long as his consistency holds out. The defensive line is weak, but a good secondary will help slow opposing passing attacks. They could start 3-0, but it tough from there.
8. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-6/5-7): With the loss of QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon, this team will drop the most in the conference. A freshman QB and redesigned lines (on both offense and defense) marks a rebuilding year for the Cowboys.
9. Baylor Bears (1-8/3-9): RG3 was most of the Bears offense last year, so now Baylor must face life without him. With a porous defense and new offense led by QB Nick Florence (who attempted only 12 passes last season), Baylor falls back to familiar territory.
10. Kansas Jayhawks (0-9/2-10): Charlie Weis assumes control of a team in disarray. Weis brings back sloppy Dayne Crist, who still had one year of eligibility when he left Notre Dame. His experience won't help much, and Weis' dependence on him means they need to rework the offense next season when Crist is gone.
Conference USA - East division
1. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (7-1/8-4): Lots of returning starters keep the offense hot and the defense quick. They have a tough non-conference schedule, but they should run through their conference schedule.
2. Marshall Thundering Herd (6-2/8-4): Marshall's chances took a big boost when they gained two former Penn State players, improving both their receiving corps and defense. Suddenly Marshall becomes a contender.
3. East Carolina Pirates (5-3/5-7): Four quarterbacks are battling for the starting position. This battle won't likely be resolved when the season starts, so games will look like passing practice. That's fine, as I don't know how they would improve from last season's 105th ranked rushing offense. The defense still needs to improve, so the Pirates will start slow.
4. UCF Golden Knights (2-6/2-10): What a drop-off between the top half and bottom half of this division! Facing a postseason ban and decommitting recruits, this program is in trouble. They hoped to impress before they left for the Big East next season, but it looks like their last season in Conference USA will be a bust.
5. Memphis Tigers (1-7/3-9): Another team moving to the Big East next year, they should show some improvement on the field, but they need to surprise some opponents if they want to improve on last season's record.
6. UAB Blazers (1-7/1-11): The offense has some more experience, but they need to add consistency this season. The defense is slow, which means this team will fall behind early and stay there.
Conference USA - West division
1. Houston Cougars (6-2/10-2): QB Case Keenum's departure slows the offense, but Cotton Turner looked good in relief last season. With a strong receiving corps and stable backfield, Houston will still score. An improved defense also boosts them.
2. Rice Owls (5-3/7-5): QB Taylor McHargue gains a more experienced wide receiving corps and a good backfield. While the defense still needs work, Rice should be an improved team this season. They also have a scheduling advantage, as their toughest opponents come to them.
3. SMU Mustangs (4-4/6-6): J.J. McDermott and Kyle Padron are both goen, so a quarterback who took NO snaps last season now leads the Mustangs offense. A weak backfield leaves the offense struggling. Spring practice injuries in the defensive secondary means the Mustangs will start slowly, but they should improve as the season progresses.
4. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (4-4/5-7): Kalen Henderson takes over the quarterback reins from departing G.J. Kinne, which is a major step backwards. The rushing game is a strength of this team, but a thin line means they are susceptible to injuries.
5. UTEP Miners (2-6/3-9): Carson Meger assumes the quarterback duties, but his interception percentage is too high to provide much faith. The offensive backfield is good, but some holes in the offensive line makes the running game questionable.
6. Tulane Green Wave (1-7/2-10): A new and revamped offense won't get much support from a weak defense, so this will be a long season for Tulane fans.
Conference USA winner: Southern Miss
MAC - East division
UMass moves up to FBS and replaces Temple.
1. Ohio Bobcats (8-0/11/1): QB Tyler Tettleton threw for over 3000 yards last season. If the offensive line can protect him better, he could hit 4000 this season. The defense is good enough to slow opponents, allowing the offense to shred opponents.
2. Bowling Green Falcons (6-2/8-4): QB Matt Schilz has plenty of powerful targets. That's good, because the running game looks weak. The defense needs some work, too. The Falcons should improve as the season progresses, but they won't catch Ohio.
3. Kent State Golden Flashes (4-4/6-6): RB Trayion Durham will dominate, giving time for a new quarterback and thin receiving corps to develop. A strong defense will help make a run-oriented offense work.
4. Akron Zips (3-5/5-7): Junior QB Clayton Moore needs to improve if Akron wants to compete. He has decent receivers and running back Jawon Chisholm to help the offense. The offense has to produce, as the defense is poor, so Akron must score to win.
5. Miami Ohio Redhawks (3-5/4-8): A new quarterback and weak backfield cripples the offense. The defense is good, so they'll slow other teams.
6. UMass Minutemen (2-6/3-9): New coach Charley Molnar is looking for a new quarterback after concussion issues have benched Kellen Pagel. He gains a couple of transfers from big-time programs, so this squad won't stink, but it's a huge step up to FBS.
7. Buffalo Bulls (1-7/2-10): Strong RB Branden Oliver will keep the running game moving. That's good, as a new quarterback and inexperienced receivers makes the passing game questionable. The defense is improving, but holes in the secondary makes it hard.
MAC - West division
1. Toledo Rockets (6-2/8-4): They lost their best receiver, Eric Page, to the NFL, but there are still quality receivers on the team. They will rotate between two strong senior quarterbacks, with little difference between them. The running game lost their two most productive players, so the passing game will dominate. The defense has shown improvement, which should slow opponents enough for Toledo to win.
2. Northern Illinois Huskies (5-3/8-4): They lost quarterback and leading rusher Chandler Harnish to the Colts, so the pressure is on new quarterback Jordan Lynch. He has help with a strong receiving corps and returning RB Jasmin Hopkins. The defense took hits in the losses of CB Devon Butler and safety Tommy Davis.
3. Western Michigan Broncos (5-3/7-5): QB Alex Calder lost his favorite target from last year, Jordan White, to the Jets, but the size and experience of the wide receiving squad is large enough to make up the loss.The running game and defense are not so strong, but there is room for development. This team will get better as the season progresses.
4. Eastern Michigan Eagles (4-4/6-6): QB Alex Gillett has a large number of inexperienced receivers, so the running game will play a larger role until they develop. The defense is strong, so this team has a good core. If the younger players develop sooner than expected, they could move up to second place.
5. Ball State Cardinals (3-5/5-7): QB Keith Wenning is ready for another good year, but he needs to break in some new receivers. RB Jawan Edwards will allow them time to develop. A poor defense and tough road schedule will hamper this team's development.
6. Central Michigan Chippewas (2-6/3-9): Senior QB Ryan Radcliff must reduce the number of interceptions for this team to develop, especially since there doesn't seem to be much assistance coming from the offensive backfield or the defense.
MAC Wiinner: Ohio Bobcats
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