NCAA 2012 Week 1 picks

Here we are, at the start of a new NCAA football season.  There are too many games to discuss each one, even if I limit myself to the Bowl Subdivision.  Thus, as readers of my column know, I work from three categories:  Top 25 matchups, Big Ten matches, and other games of interest.

This year, in addition to the selected Game of the Week, I will add the FCS Game of the Week.  This allows those of you interested in the Football Championship Subdivision to see what game I find significant that week.

This week I will list only Big Ten games and other games of significance.  I have no Top 25, and won't have one for a couple of weeks.  This might confuse people new to my blog, as most football analysts have already presented their preseason Top 25.  I never make one.  You see, most of these analysts pick their Top 25 from a limited selection of their favorite teams, teams that often finish seasons well.  They determine which ones they think will do well.  That's fine, but these same analysts make each successive week's Top 25 based upon the previous weeks.  Thus, even if these so-called experts guessed wrong, it can take weeks to remove teams that were disappointments and bring surprise teams into the Top 25.  My Top 25 is not based upon my personal opinions, but based upon a complex points system that factors win percentage, margin of victory, and strength of schedule.  Since I need enough teams to have played FBS teams, and many FBS teams play FCS teams in the first couple of weeks, my Top 25 will not be produced until after Week 2.

Thursday, Aug 30 games
Minnesota Golden Gophers at UNLV Running Rebels:  This will be a close game. The Gophers aren't a strong team, but the Rebels need time to get comfortable with their new players and positions.  I think the Gophers will win because their returning starters are used to tougher competition, but UNLV might be closing the gap in the fourth quarter.  GOPHERS by three

Friday, Aug 31 games
Boise State Broncos at Michigan State Spartans: Boise State has been a tough opponent over the past few years, and the Spartans figured they had an excellent warm-up here.  Unfortunately, these Broncos aren't the same.  They lost too much on their offense, and it will take weeks until they start to resemble anything like their old self.  MSU should breeze easily through this one.  SPARTANS by sixteen

San Jose State Spartans at Stanford Cardinal:  These Spartans won't have so much good fortune.  The Cardinal without Luck will need to rejuvenate their offense, but their defense is still tough as nails, a factor not in favor with the Spartans offense.  STANFORD by 17

Saturday, Sept 1 games
Big Ten:
Western Michigan Broncos at Illinois Fighting Illini:  The Illini won their first six games last season until injuries and tough conference opponents sent them on the skids.  They could start almost as well this season.  A new offensive scheme favors backup QB Reilly O'Toole, so starter Nathan Scheelhaase knows he has to perform.  That should inspire him through this game.  ILLINOIS by 14

Miami Ohio Redhawks at Ohio State Buckeyes:  The offense finds itself stripped to the bone after "tattoo gate".  New coach Urban Meyer loves to toy with offenses, and it'll be interesting to see what he dials up for Ohio State.  Whatever it is will be significantly different from what the Buckeyes are used to, and will take time to develop.  This one will be won the old-fashioned way -- a stingy defense that won't let Miami in the end zone.  OHIO STATE by ten

Ohio Bobcats at Penn State Nittany Lions:  Just how far has Penn State fallen with the defections after the NCAA sanctions?  How about my expectation that they will LOSE this game?  While that is as much of a testimony to how good Ohio will be, and how tough the MAC plays the Big Ten, it still puts Penn State in a tough spot right out of the gate.  OHIO by six

Northwestern Wildcats at Syracuse Orange: Syracuse might be improved over last season, but they still aren't capable of stopping an offense used to battling the tough defenses of the Big Ten.  Northwestern has a tough season ahead of them, but they should capture an easy victory here.  NORTHWESTERN by 13

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Nebraska Cornhuskers:  Southern Miss will be a tough opponent this season, but Nebraska will be tougher.  The Cornhuskers are masters at ground-churning timeclock-burning offenses, and they have a tough defense to match.  This will likely be a low-scoring game, as the Eagles have a tough defense, too, but the Huskers offense will punch through.  NEBRASKA by twelve

Iowa Hawkeyes at Northern Illinois Huskies:  A down Iowa team has to travel to a strong MAC opponent, and the MAC has given Big Ten teams fits the past couple of years.  This might be tighter than Hawkeyes fans would like, but they'll come on in the fourth quarter -- few teams come back scratching as hard as the Hawkeyes.  IOWA by six

Eastern Kentucky Colonels (FCS) at Purdue Boilermakers:  Purdue is a decent team, and Eastern Kentucky is not one of the strongest Ohio Valley teams.  This one should be a fairly easy victory for Purdue.  PURDUE by 20

Indiana State Sycamores (FCS) at Indiana Hoosiers:  The Hoosiers will struggle against most of their FBS opponents, but they get a good start against the Sycamores.  INDIANA by 18

Other games of interest:
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Navy Midshipmen:  As usual, the Irish team and fans start the season with high hopes.  They'd love to open with a win, but Navy won't make it easy.  Navy has owned the toughest ground game in the FBS for the past few years, and with Notre Dame's passing game looking questionable, they can't win a ground battle with Navy.  If the Irish can't get the ball airborne, they may suffer an opening week loss.  I think they might sneak by, though.  NOTRE DAME by two

Marshall Thundering Herd at West Virginia Mountaineers:  West Virginia opens their Big XII tenure as an early conference title favorite.  They're used to that position, as they were often favored to win the Big East.  This game will be a wipeout.  WEST VIRGINIA by 27

Hawaii Warriors at USC Trojans:  The Trojans are an early favorite to win the NCAA Championship.  Many of their players returned this year, their first off probation in three years, for just that reason.  They want to impress with every game, and that starts here.  USC by 31

Monday, Sept 3 games
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Tech Hokies:  I remember when these games were exciting and close.  Unfortunately, Georgia Tech hasn't been on the same talent level of Virginia Tech for years, and that remains true today.  VIRGINIA TECH by 17

FCS Game of the Week: Jacksonville Dolphins at Georgia Southern Eagles:  Two teams who played well last season face off in an exciting battle.  I think Jacksonville lost more talent than Georgia Southern, and has a thinner roster to replace from.  I could be wrong, but I like Georgia Southern to open with a win.  GEORGIA SOUTHERN by eight

GAME OF THE WEEK:  Michigan Wolverines at Alabama Crimson Tide:  Last year's National Champ travels to a Top Ten preseason favorite for this year's title.  After struggling the past few years, Michigan is a top-notch team again, but they don't have the offensive strength to get past the staunch Tide defense.  The Wolverines also have a tough defense, so the Tide will struggle to score.  This will be a low-scoring defensive battle, but I give the edge to the National Champs.  TIDE by six