NFL 2012 Week 16 power ranks

I'm going to do something a bit different this week, and only rank the playoff-eligible teams.  Since the AFC playoff teams are set (only the seeds remain to be determined), that totals 15 teams.  Let's look at each one:

NFL Playoff-eligible Power Rankings [Last week's position]
1.  Denver Broncos (12-3) [1] : Hot on a ten-game winning streak, the Broncos now have a chance to capture the AFC top seed and make the AFC champion come through Denver, a notoriously difficult place to play in winter.
2.  Atlanta Falcons (13-2) [5] : After two impressive victories, the Falcons have solidified their right to lead the NFC
3.  New England Patriots (11-4) [3] : While their shot at AFC top seed is slim, this team is dangerous.  Few defenses can slow this team; not even the 49ers could do that
4.  Green Bay Packers (11-4) [7] : The offense is surging here at the end of the season, and if they capture the second seed and get a bye week to regain some of their injured defensive players, this team could reach the NFC Championship Game
5.  Houston Texans (12-3) [4] : Their offense looked atrocious against the Vikings, and the defense wasn't much better.  The Texans have been playing non-divisional teams in lackluster fashion recently, and that doesn't bode well for the playoffs.
6. Seattle Seahawks (10-5) [6] : Beating the 49ers clinched a playoff spot, and also make the Seahawks the NFC team with the best four-game stretch right now
7.  San Francisco 49ers (10-4-1) [2] : The 49ers could miss a first week bye, and could even lose the division title.  This team has some issues.
8.  Chicago Bears (9-6) [8] : A strong win against Arizona still leaves concerns about Jay Cutler, who didn't complete a pass in the Bears first two drives.  The defense accounted for two scores, showing their takeaway power is back.
9.  Baltimore Ravens (10-5) [10] : They halted their losing streak and clinched the AFC North, but they now have the fourth seed when they were nearly a lock for the second seed four weeks ago
10. Cincinnati Bengals (9-6) [9] : The offense sputtered a bit this week, but the Bengals are still a dangerous team
11. Washington Redskins (9-6) [11] : Their six-game winning streak is the longest in the NFC, and they have talent on both sides of the ball
12. Minnesota Vikings (8-7) [13] : Strong team, but they may not make the playoffs (see my Playoff Race section below)
13. Indianapolis Colts (10-5) [14] : They bounced back from a big loss to the Texans, but their offense seemed pedestrian against the weak KC defense
14. New York Giants (8-7) [12] : No team with a winning record has had two worse games than the Giants have delivered
15. Dallas Cowboys (8-7) [16] : The Cowboys need to beat the Redskins and win the NFC East in order to reach the playoffs.  They had a great four-minute span at the end of the game against the Saints, but can they do that against a team that has any kind of defense?

Divisional power rankings [Last week's position]
1.  NFC North [1] : Wins by all three of the winning teams pushed this division back on top.  They play each other this week, so it'll be interesting to see if they can finish the season on top.
2.  NFC South [4] : Big jump as three teams win.  This is the only division without a team with double-digit losses
3.  AFC North [2] : Baltimore ended their losing streak and this is the only AFC division with three teams with positive point differentials.
4.  NFC West [2] : The only division in the NFC with two teams that have at least ten victories
5.  NFC East [5] : Don't be fooled by the position -- the largest gap between any two positions separates the NFC West and NFC East
6.  AFC East [6] : Without the Patriots, this division would suck
7.  AFC South [7] : They may have two playoff teams, but they also have two of the worst teams in the league
8.  AFC West [8] : They end up the worst division in the league for two consecutive seasons

Playoff Seed races:
The AFC have all of their teams defined; seeds remain to be determined.  The NFC has two spots open - the NFC East winner and the sixth seed.  I do not understand how NFL.com has projected the NFC seedings.  Apparently, they either believe that the Bears will lose to the Lions or that Minnesota will beat Green Bay AND both San Fran and Seattle will lose.  Weird.

AFC:  All division titles are set, and the wildcard teams are determined.  The only confirmed seed is Baltimore as the fourth seed.  Houston leads for the top seed, but they need to beat Indy to get it.  The Broncos should easily beat the Chiefs to capture a bye week; top seed if Houston falters or the second seed if Houston wins.  If Houston loses and the Patriots win, the Pats gain the second seed and Houston the third.  A Texans win puts the Patriots in the third seed.  For the wildcards, it's easy.  A Colts win over Houston makes them the fifth seed, as does a Bengals loss to the Ravens.  A Colts loss and Bengals win propels the Bengals to fifth seed.

My projections:
1. Denver Broncos - a Colts win puts a rejuvenated Peyton on top
2. New England Patriots -  easy win over Miami
3. Houston Texans
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Indianapolis Colt
6. Cincinnati Bengals

NFC:  The Falcons are the top seed and the NFC East winner will be the fourth seed.  The Redskins-Cowboys game will determine that fourth seed.  The Packers clinch the second seed with a win over the Vikings.  If the Pack lose and the Seahawks win the NFC West, Seattle gains the second seed thanks to a Seahawks victory over the Pack in Week 3.  The 49ers capture the second seed by beating Arizona and hoping the Vikings beat the Pack.  The Pack have the third seed if they lose and the 49ers win OR the Seahawks win the NFC West.  If all three teams (Packers, 49ers, and Seattle) lose, the Pack get the second seed.  The NFC West runner-up will be the fifth seed.  Minnesota clinches the sixth seed if they beat Green Bay.  The Bears capture that spot with a win over Detroit and a Vikings loss.  The Giants need too many teams to lose, as well as a victory over Philly, to get it.

My projections:
1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Green Bay Packers - they should beat the Vikings, despite many analysts believing otherwise
3. San Francisco 49ers - the Cardinals won't be a difficult opponent
4. Washington Redskins - they should beat the Cowboys
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Chicago Bears - the Lions will play tough, but the Bears should win