NFL 2012 Week 16 picks

I'm picking half of the visiting teams.  That always makes me nervous, but we have some weak home teams this week.

Saturday night:  Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions:  The Falcons clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win here.  They should get it.  The Lions have a decent passing game, but they focus on Calvin Johnson too much.  The Falcons may not have the best defense in the NFC, but they can hinder one receiver.  The Lions don't have much of a running game to fall back on, either.  FALCONS, 27-17

Sunday early games:
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins:  Neither team is great, but the Dolphins have some better talent.  Their defense is definitely better, and Tannehill does interesting things with the offense.  DOLPHINS, 24-20

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers:  While you can never count out the Steelers, you can count them out of the playoffs if they lose here.  Moreover, a Bengals win puts them in the playoffs, so there is plenty of incentive for the road team to win this one.  Too, if the Ravens stumble, the Bengals see a glimmer to capture the division title.  The division title might be difficult, but beating the Steelers to capture a wildcard spot is definitely likely.  BENGALS, 23-20

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs:  Given the problems plaguing the Chiefs, the Colts should win this game easily.  That guarantees the fifth seed.  COLTS, 30-17

Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans:  A win for the Texans guarantees the top seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  The Vikings need a win to keep pace with the other NFC wildcard contenders.  The Vikings rely on Adrian Peterson, as Ponder still needs some work at QB.  The Texans have a stiff running defense, so don't expect the Vikings to do as much.  That defense has shown some holes recently, but I think they'll get up for this game.  The NFC has won many of these intraconference bouts, though, so an upset is possible.  TEXANS, 27-20

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars:  The Pats defense is showing wear, so the Jags will score a bit, but their defense won't stop the dynamic Pats offense.  PATRIOTS, 38-17

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys:  Tony Romo and the Cowboys haven't self-destructed as badly this December as most years, but their offense still sputters a bit.  The Saints offense has been clicking, and the Cowboys defense will do little to stop it.  SAINTS, 30-23

Oakland Raiders at Carolina Panthers:  Neither team has a great defense, but the Raiders have been downright atrocious.  Carolina will likely score the first two touchdowns and maintain that lead, even as the Raiders try to battle back in the third quarter.  PANTHERS, 28-23

San Diego Chargers at New York Jets:  Greg McElroy gets to start as this may be the last home game for both Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow.  McElroy is different, and may breathe a little life into the offense, but where the Jets really need life is the defense, as the Chargers can score.  If the Jets can't stop them, they can't keep pace.  CHARGERS, 24-13

St Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Bucs:  The Rams might score the upset, as the Bucs have been sliding recently, but St Louis has done little outside their division.  This won't be a pretty game, but it should favor the home team.  BUCS, 26-23

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers:  Green Bay needs to keep winning, and hope the 49ers falter, in order to game a playoff bye.  They have enough injuries that they want that bye week.  Talentwise, they should be able to beat Tennessee, but the Titans can be sneaky.  If the defense slacks off in the fourth quarter, they could open the door for an upset.  Somehow, though, I doubt it.  PACKERS, 30-20

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles:  The Redskins now lead the NFC East, and a win here brings them one step closer to the division title and the fourth NFC seed.  They should get it.  The Eagles are in disarray, and RGIII should play enough to produce an insurmountable lead.  REDSKINS, 27-23

Sunday late games:
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals:  The Bears have played an atrocious streak of games, but they are the 8-6 team with the best chance to reach 10-6.  Although they conclude their season on the road, they face offensively-challenged Arizona and then travel to Detroit.  The Bears could capture the fifth seed, but they need to win this game.  They should, unless they turn the ball over too often and too close to the goal line.  The Cardinals offense can't sustain drives, but they can succeed on short yardage drives.  I think the Bears will play just well enough to win this one.  BEARS, 23-17

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos:  By the start of this game, the Broncos will know if they still have a shot at the top seed, and will also know if the Patriots have closed the gap on the second seed.  No matter the results of either game, the Broncos should win this game handily.  The Browns defense is good this year, but Peyton Manning has gotten comfortable with his new offensive scheme and receivers, and is passing as smoothly as he was in 2010.  Brandon Wheeden will drive the Browns well, and keep the game within reach for three quarters, but Peyton will engineer a back-breaking fourth quarter drive.  BRONCOS, 30-20

New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens:  Both teams have stumbled of late, but the Giants were shockingly exposed last week.  The Ravens defense is more talented than the Falcons, so they should be able to throttle New York.  I'm sure the Giants will have learned something from last week, and play more cleanly, but it will still not be sufficient.  Besides, the Ravens know that they win the AFC North with a victory, and they want that.  They don't want to have to travel to Cincinnati and risk losing the division.  RAVENS, 24-20

Sunday night:  San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks:  This could be the most exciting game of the day.  Both teams are fighting for playoff position.  If Green Bay wins, the 49ers will see their lead for a playoff bye slipping.  The Seahawks know they need a win to remain ahead of any 9-6 teams produced by Sunday games.  These two will battle back and forth.  Unfortunately, while Seattle has been a force to other teams, they have played poorly against division opponents.  That will likely continue this game.  49ERS, 23-20