Some fascinating changes occurred in the off-season. The Big East and the WAC dissolved. Some teams from the Big East, along with some from the MAC and Conference USA, formed the American Athletic Conference. That conference will change next year, as some of those teams are already scheduled to move to new conferences in 2014, when the fabled 14- to 16-team "superconferences" will start to emerge. The Sun Belt lost its Florida teams (now making the title of the conference as irrelevant as the Big Ten's or Big XII's), as they migrated to Conference USA to replace their departed teams.
As usual, I will break my NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision previews into three regional columns, although there will be less to discuss when I get to the West. We are down to ten conferences, with the potential to fall to eight by 2016.
SEC East
1. Georgia Bulldogs (7-1 in conf / 11-1 overall): This team has the most potent overall offense in the conference, and that includes Texas A&M. They lost some key defenders, especially in their secondary and linebacking corps, but they get to host their toughest opponents. Unfortunately they face South Carolina too early, before the new defenders can gel. That game will prevent a perfect season for the Bulldogs.
2. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-1/10-2) : With a healthy Clowney on defense, this team is a dangerous threat. Their most critical need is consistency. This team can get great momentum, and then do something stupid (a couple of dumb penalties, consecutive dropped balls, etc) that slows or stalls them. Due to this, Spurrier usually loses one game a season that they should win. That could leave them with a 6-2 conference record and no chance at the division title.
3. Florida Gators (5-3/9-3): It's looking more likely that last season's QB Jeff Driskel won't be starting the season. That begs the question -- who will? Neither junior Tyler Murphy nor sophomore Ryan McGriff have seen much playing time. Either quarterback will be supported by a talented corps of receivers, but a weak running game limits their mobility against tough and speedy defenses.
4. Missouri Tigers (5-3/9-3): The biggest problem for the Tigers is protection. No, they haven't forgotten to pay their insurance; they have had to replace too many people on both the offensive and defensive lines. Given the speed and power of this conference, that is not a good situation.
5. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-6/5-7): Some of the national analysts are predicting a good year for Vandy, but needing to replace their quarterback and top runner from last year makes it hard. Even worse, new premier running back Brian Kimbrow leaves many people wondering if he can maintain his 6+ yards per carry from last year when he steps up to full-time starter. If he falters or gets injured, they don't have a reliable back-up.
6. Kentucky Wildcats (1-7/2-9) They brought back plenty of starters from last year. The year of experience will be helpful, but they still can't compete with many of the teams in this conference.
7. Tennessee Volunteers (0-8/3-9): This team lost too much from last year: QB, best receiver, best runner, best DB, etc. The easy non-conference schedule will give them some confidence, but you need than that in this cofnerence.
SEC West
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0/12-0): The Tide have a real chance to three-peat. They get most of their starters from last season back, and the new roster fillers learned from last year's stars. This entire squad has been to the National Champion game, some of them three times, and you can't beat that experience.
2. LSU Tigers (6-2/9-3): This is a crucial year for LSU. The play of RB Jeremy Hill has caused many SEC teams to put a bulls-eye on the jerseys of Tigers players. Worse, the actions of coach Les Miles has attracted attention of the NCAA. The Tigers could face sanctions starting 2014, so they have to win. The Tigers don't play well when they are desperate, though, and they lack the full-roster talent of Alabama, Georgia, or South Carolina.
3. Texas A&M Aggies (4-4/8-4): This team could end better than 8-4, but they won't if Johnny Manziel doesn't play, and the chance of NCAA sanctions increases every week. Between his illegal partying ways (remember, he is under the legal drinking age) and his autograph sessions, Manziel is providing the NCAA rules committee too much ammunition.
4. Misissippi State Bulldogs (4-4/7-5): The Bulldogs lost their top two receivers from last year, but QB Tyler Russell has other targets. The defense unfortunately took a step back. This team will improve as the season progresses, but they'll have a 50/50 start.
5. Arkansas Razorbacks (3-5/6-6): New coach Bret Bielema brings a rushing focus to the Razorbacks. Bielema found success at Wisconsin with their strong running philosophy. In order to make this work, they need to strengthen the offensive line. Worse, Bielema has to break in a new quarterback the same year he is breaking in a new offensive scheme. This will be a tough year.
6. Auburn Tigers (3-5/6-6): Former coordinator Gus Malzahn returns to lead the Tigers, but this is a team in disarray. One of his first priorities is settling the quarterback controversy. Then he needs to strengthen his porous defense, and increase the speed of his offense. This will be a rebuilding year.
7. Ole Miss Rebels (1-7/4-8): The Rebels need to replace their key offensive contributor last year -- quarterback (and number two runner) Bo Wallace. With a weakened defense as well, this will be a rebuilding year.
ACC Atlantic
1. Clemson Tigers (8-0/10-2): This team will dominate the ACC, with their toughest game against Florida State. Facing two SEC powerhouses (Georgia and South Carolina) will destroy any chances for a national title, but the Tigers will still play in a BCS bowl.
2. Florida State Seminoles (6-2/8-4): The Seminoles needs to replace eleven starters from last year. The key position is quarterback. Jameis Winston is highly touted, but a thin receiving corps (both from graduation and injuries) will make it tough at first.
3. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-3/9-3): Wake has a strong offense. QB Tanner Price is very talented and experienced, he has good receivers and runners, and should get better support from the offensive line this year. The problem is on defense. Although the Deacons have a strong starting squad, they are thin on replacements, so injuries will kill them.
4. North Carolina State Wolfpack (4-4/7-5): New coach Dave Doesen was used to successful seasons at Northern Illinois. He may get there at NC State, but not this year. He has plenty of starters to replace, especially on offense. With no running game to speak of and a porous defense, the Wolfpack will struggle.
5. Maryland Terrapins (2-6/5-7): The Terrapins have a good defense, but just "good" is not sufficient in this conference. The offense, especially on the line and in the running game, will gradually improve, but it won't be quick enough to save their season.
6. Boston College Eagles (2-6/4-8): New coach Steve Addazio brings a new offensive scheme to QB Chase Rettig. Rettig seems pretty good at learning new schemes, and he has good corps of receivers to support him. There doesn't seem to be a strong running presence, though, and a one-sided offense will not survive against these defenses.
7. Syracuse Orange (0-8/2-10): A new conference, a new coach, a new quarterback, a new offensive line, and a new defensive line. Same losing results, though.
ACC Coastal
1. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-1/10-2): Last year's adversity has hardened this team. With a favorable schedule after Week 1, the Hokies have a great chance to set themselves to face Clemson in the conference title game, which won't end well.
2. Miami Hurricanes (6-2/9-3): QB Stephen Morris has a plethora of experienced receivers and good runners. With a strong offensive line and stingy defense, this team is a strong contender. If they had the Hokies' schedule, they'd run through the conference unbeaten.
3. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-2/8-4): The Tar Heels have some holes on the offensive line to replace, as well as their best runner from last year, but the offense is still strong. Unfortunately they lost their two best defenders, and that hurts them more.
4. Duke Blue Devils (3-5/6-6): Note the huge gap between the top three teams in this division and the rest. Duke needs to replace their quarterback, but new starter Anthony Boone has some experience, and he has talented receivers to help him. A weak rushing attack and weak defense is their Achilles Heel. Once again, Duke will start strongly and then fade.
5. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-5/5-7): A new quarterback and mediocre receivers leaves Tech with a weak passing attack. A strong offensive line will help a running game, but a main workhorse has not shown up in spring practice. The defense is improving, but the questionnable offense makes them a poor bet.
6. Pittsburgh Panthers (2-6/4-8): Breaking in a new quarterback in a new conference. Losing their best rusher makes this a long year for Pitt.
7. Virginia Cavaliers (0-8/1-11): Pity the Cavs. They have a terrible schedule, with killer road games. Too many coaching changes leaves them listless.
American Athletic
1. Louisville Cardinals (8-0/12-0): The Cards have a great schedule, and they could run the table. Unfortunately, that won't get them to the National Championship Game, but it might give QB Teddy Bridgeater the Heisman Trophy -- he's certainly a front runner as the season dawns.
2. Houston Cougars (6-2/9-3): QB David Piland is back with most of his favorite targets. The rushing game is weak, as is the defense, but Houston will challenge teams to outscore them.
3. UCF Golden Knights (6-2/8-4): QB Blake Bortles gives the Knights a 3000-yard passer. They lost their best rusher from last year, but new starter Storm Johnson saw quite a bit of playing time. If Johnson comes on strong, the Knights could push Louisville.
4. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-2/8-4): QB Gary Nova is back, so the passing game is in good hands. The Knights have a strong defense, but they have a weak running game. That's one area they will have to improve before moving to the Big Ten next year.
5. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-3/6-6): The Bearcats put two Big Ten teams on their schedule in preparation for joining the conference, but those early games will pulverize them. They lost lots of positions on the offensive line, in the offensive backfield, and in the defensive backfield. They are also thin on replacements, so they could slide badly late in the season as players get hurt.
6. South Florida Bulls (3-5/5-7): Their defense is solid, but the offense will be non-existent early. They are breaking in a new quarterback and new runners. The Bulls will build some great experience for next year, but this year will be nothing but a learning experience.
7. Memphis Tigers (3-5/4-8): Senior QB Jacob Kalam should have a better year this year, as he has several experienced receivers. The running game is okay, but not great. The problem lies on the defensive side of the ball, making Memphis prone to lose high-scoring games.
8. SMU Mustangs (2-6/3-9): Senior QB Garrett Gilbert could reach 3000 passing yards this year, but he has some obstacles. He doesn't really have a running game to help balance the offense, and the offensive line has some holes, meaning Gilbert will be on the run. A weakened defense also hurts this team.
9. UConn Huskies (1-7/2-9): Junior QB Chandler Whitmer is the only bright spot on a poor offense. The defense is strong, but they aren't great at forcing turnovers, and they will need that to complement a struggling offense.
10. Temple Owls (0-8/1-11): The only bright spot on their offense last year, RB Montel Harris, is gone. Without him, this team is not likely to beat ANY FBS opponent.
Sun Belt
1. Western Kentucky (9-0/10-2): Senior QB Kawaun Jakes is a potent weapon. He throws to a variety of targets, so it is hard for defenses to know where he'll throw. With a good defense and strong running game, this team is powerful.
2. Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-1/9-3): Losing QB Brian Aplin would seem to hurt them, but the Red Wolves have many talented receivers with great hands to support the new quarterback. Moreover, the running game is solid, behind workhorse David Oku. Add in a strong defense, and the Red Wolves are still a threat.
3. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (5-2/7-5): They have a tough schedule, facing their toughest opponents on the road. QB Terrance Broadway may reach 3000 yards passing, but he needs to stay in the pocket and pass more; he is too prone to run. The defense took a backstep, but they should get better as the season goes on.
4. Louisiana-Monroe Indians (4-3/6-6): QB Kolton Browning lost his best target from last season, but senior WR Je'Ron Hamm was a big part of the offense, and he comes back. Without a running game, though, the burden falls on Browning and Hamm.
5. Troy Trojans (3-4/4-8): QB Corey Robinson is poised for another great season, but the Trojans have no running game, leaving them one-sided. Robinson also lost his best target from last year, so he needs to establish rapport with someone else. A weak defense further complicates things for Troy.
6. South Alabama Jaguars (2-5/3-9): The offense basically consists of QB Ross Metheny and WR Jereme Jones. Without a decent defense, this team will struggle.
7. Texas State Bobcats (1-6/2-10): They lost their QB, best runner, and best defenders. This will be a bad year for the Bobcats.
8. Georgia State Panthers (0-7/2-10): This team was a weakling in the Colonial Athletic Conference last year. They have rushed their move into Division I play, and should not have moved up to FBS.
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