NCAA Bowl picks, part I

Well, it's that time of year again.  Upstate New York has experienced their first snow, and we are days away from the first FBS bowl game.  It's time for me to break open my crystal ball (I might need a new one for Christmas) and see how well I can predict how different conferences, and their representative teams, will perform in the bowls.

We have 39 bowls, counting the two championship semi-finals, so I will break my picks into three different columns.  This one, the first, will cover bowls leading to Christmas Day.  We see mostly Group of Five teams among these bowls, but the Pac-12 gets started as well.

Sat Dec 16
New Orleans Bowl:  #22 Troy Trojans v North Texas Mean Green:  The first bowl game features a ranked team as the Sun Belt Champion goes up against the Conference USA runner-up.  The Sun Belt typically performs well in bowls, so I like the Trojans chances.  TROY

Cure Bowl:  Georgia State Panthers v Western Kentucky Hilltoppers:  The second game of the day also matches the Sun Belt and Conference USA.  Georgia State did well against Sun Belt opponents, but struggled mightily against non-conference opponents.  Western Kentucky has some bowl experience; not all of it good, but experience always helps.  WESTERN KENTUCKY

Las Vegas Bowl:  Oregon Ducks v #25 Boise State Broncos:  Oregon is the only Power Five school to play in the first day of the college bowl season.  Boise State is the second conference champion to play in the first day of the college bowl season.  Oregon can be dangerous, but they had a bit of an "off" year.  Boise State started slowly but poured it on as the season rolled on.  Expect the Broncos, the first team from a non-power conference to beat a power conference team in a New Years Day bowl, to excel in this game.  BOISE STATE

New Mexico Bowl:  Marshall Thundering Herd v Colorado State Rams:  The Mountain West gets their second representative of the day in bowl games, facing the third Conference USA team.  Marshall spent some time in the Top 25, and showed a stiff defense.  Colorado State has a good offense, but their defense needs work.  Defense will likely rule in this game, giving Marshall the edge.  MARSHALL

Camellia Bowl:  Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders v Arkansas State Red Wolves:  Another Sun Belt v Conference USA matchup, the third of the day.  This will be tiebreaker, and I like the Sun Belt in this one, too.  ARKANSAS STATE

Tues Dec 19
Boca Raton Bowl:  Akron Zips v #24 Florida Atlantic Owls:  The MAC enters the bowl season, as that conference's runner-up faces the Conference USA Champion.  Akron did some amazing things against MAC opponents, but I have to like the Owls in this game.  FLORIDA ATLANTIC

Wed Dec 20
Frisco Bowl:  SMU Mustangs v Louisiana Tech Bulldogs:  The American Athletic Conference enters the bowls, stepping up to face the fifth Conference USA team out of seven bowls.  The Bulldogs don't have a stellar bowl record, going 5-3-1.  SMU  is no better, with a 7-7-1 record, but they have won four of their last five.  I think this will be their fifth.  SMU

Thurs Dec 21
Gasparilla Bowl:  Temple Owls v Florida International Golden Panthers:  In the inaugural game of this St Petersburg-based bowl, the Golden Panthers practically play a home game.  They might have been able to beat Temple on neutral ground, but with rabid Florida fans surrounding them, they should win fairly easily.  FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

Fri Dec 22
Bahamas Bowl:  UAB Blazers v Ohio Bobcats:  The MAC has their second representative in the bowls, this time up against a team that struggles away from their home field.  Traveling to Nassau won't help.  OHIO

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl:  Wyoming Cowboys v Central Michigan Chippewas:  This is the first game I am picking the team with the worse record.  Wyoming showed strength in several of their games, while the Chippewas just scraped by too often to have faith in them.  WYOMING

Sat Dec 23
Birmingham Bowl:  Texas Tech Red Raiders v #13 South Florida Bulls:  The Big XII get their first team in the bowls, but the defensively-challenged Raiders face the stiff defense of the Bulls.  Defense wins this one, too.  SOUTH FLORIDA

Armed Forces Bowl:  Army Black Knights v #23 San Diego State Aztecs:  Army was an impressive team this year, and won the Commander in Chief trophy.  They would love to win the bowl game devoted to the military, but San Diego State was a powerhouse this season.  SAN DIEGO STATE

Dollar General Bowl:  Appalachian State Mountaineers v #19 Toledo Rockets:  The Mountaineers bowled over Sun Belt opponents but were less than stellar against non-conference opponents.  Toledo had some struggles against the best MAC teams, but the MAC Champions have one of the best offenses in the country.  TOLEDO

Sun Dec 24
Hawaii Bowl:  Fresno State Bulldogs v Houston Cougars:  The Mountain West runner-ups travel to Hawaii for their fourth bowl game.  The Bulldogs have lost all three of their previous trips, so it would seem ridiculous to pick them.  However, I think the previous experience in the far time zone will help the Bulldogs.  The Cougars have played consistently this year, and that may get magnified in the unusual time, and local distractions, that come with this bowl.  FRESNO STATE