NCAA Bowls picks III

Let's finish this thing.

Dec 30
Taxslayer Bowl:  Louisville Cardinals v Mississippi State Bulldogs:  The Bulldogs defense can be tough, but Louisville QB Lamar Jackson has seen a lot.  Even if the Cardinals go into halftime behind (which is likely), they will make the corrections to come back and win this very close game.  LOUISVILLE

Liberty Bowl:  Iowa State Cyclones v #21 Memphis Tigers:  The surprising Cyclones face a powerful Tigers squad.  Iowa State, aside from scaring Iowa, didn't do too much out of conference, so I have to favor Memphis in this one.  MEMPHIS

Fiesta Bowl:  #9 Washington Huskies v #5 Penn State Nittany Lions:  Penn State lost big in their bowl game last year, but that's because they were spending too much time complaining about missing out on the playoffs to focus on the game.  I don't think they'll make the same mistake this year.  Everyone is focusing on the respective running games of these teams, but don't ignore the talent of Lions QB Trace McSorley, as well as the always-dangerous squad of linebackers.  Those are why I favor Penn State.  PENN STATE

Orange Bowl:  #8 Wisconsin Badgers v #18 Miami Hurricanes:  Both teams are better on defense, so expect a low-scoring game.  To Wisconsin's benefit, they have a skilled ground game.  Also, the ACC Championship Game showed how Miami buckles under a stiff defense.  The Badgers may not be quite the caliber of Clemson, but they are a stiff defense nonetheless.  WISCONSIN

Jan 1
Outback Bowl:  Michigan Wolverines v South Carolina Gamecocks:  If Steve Spurrier were still coaching South Carolina, I'd give them a chance, as he could always create tricky plays for bowl games.  This time around, I have to favor the Michigan defense.  The Wolverines offense is rather toothless, but the defense will cause at least three Gamecock turnovers (South Carolina has not been great about holding onto the ball under pressure) to prevent South Carolina from getting ahead.  MICHIGAN

Peach Bowl:  #10 Auburn Tigers v #6 UCF Golden Knights:  Very few national analysts are giving UCF a chance to win, but they basically ignored UCF until the last three weeks, keeping them out of Top 25 rankings until the bitter end.  UCF is a strong team with an excellent blend of offense and defense.  Auburn has a good defense, but the offense is inconsistent.  Yes, Auburn beat two Number One teams, but they know their SEC opponents very well.  Neither Alabama nor Georgia adjusted their game strategies from 2016.  When Georgia changed their game plan in the SEC Championship Game, Auburn didn't stand a chance.  UCF

Citrus Bowl:  #15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish v LSU Tigers:  LSU is vastly over-rated; earlier in the season, they were ranked higher than #20 when they had a NEGATIVE point differential against FBS teams.  Notre Dame is a good team, and they have all of their players back from injury.  The Tigers don't have the defense they've had in previous years, so the Irish will roll.  NOTRE DAME

National Championship Semi-finals
Rose Bowl:  #1 Oklahoma Sooners v #4 Georgia Bulldogs:  Georgia focuses on running, Oklahoma has Baker Mayfield.  This could be evenly matched until Georgia turns the ball over and Oklahoma gets a two-score lead.  Once Georgia feels they need to pass, they've lost the game.  OKLAHOMA

Sugar Bowl:  #2 Clemson Tigers v #7 Alabama Crimson Tide:  I'll admit, I didn't expect Clemson to get back to the playoffs without Deshaun Watson, even with the toughest defense in the land.  And that defense is why I think Clemson will win this rematch.  Auburn showed what a tough defense can do to Alabama's more conservative offense this year, and Auburn is not the same caliber of Clemson.  CLEMSON