Thursday, November 8, 2018

NCAA Football 2018 Week 11 picks

As I type this, Buffalo won last night and Miami Ohio is slaughtering Ohio.  The Bulls might win their division even BEFORE playing the Bobcats next week.

Thurs Nov 8
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack:  Oh, the difference November makes.  At the start of the season, Wake was tearing through opponents while NC State was barely winning.  Now, the Deacons have struggling in conference while NC State (at one time) threatened Clemson's title hopes.  The Wolfpack won't make the ACC Championship Game, but they'll demolish Wake.  NC STATE

Fri Nov 9
Louisville Cardinals at #14 Syracuse Orange:  The Cardinals have not won a single ACC game this season, and it won't start here!  Syracuse is having a stellar year, and they are on track for a 10-win season.  SYRACUSE

#12 Fresno State Bulldogs at #22 Boise State Broncos:  Fresno State may be the strongest team in the Mountain West.  Utah State gets the attention with their dynamic offense, but the Bulldogs have one of the stingiest defenses in the country.  FRESNO STATE

Sat Nov 10
Top 25
#20 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide:  How do we reward the Bulldogs' return to the Top 25?  Throw them to the Tide as a sacrificial lamb.  ALABAMA

#2 Clemson Tigers at #21 Boston College Eagles: Clemson gets to clinch a spot in the ACC Championship with a win here.  That's clear incentive, as well as maintaining their unbeaten record and a spot in the playoffs.  CLEMSON

Florida State Seminoles at #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  Given the problems experienced by the Noles this season, this might be the Irish's easiest game of the season.  NOTRE DAME

#4 Michigan Wolverines at Rutgers Scarlet Knights:  Speaking of easy games... MICHIGAN

Navy Midshipmen at #5 UCF Golden Knights:  Navy has been mostly ineffective this season, so this game should be a breeze for the Knights.  UCF

Oklahoma State Cowboys at #6 Oklahoma Sooners:  In-state rivalry games can always get interesting, but the Sooners shouldn't have too much difficulty knocking off the Cowboys.  Oklahoma State is capable of some offense, so this one might exceed 100 total points.  OKLAHOMA

Auburn Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs:  Auburn's defense may slow Georgia, but until the Tigers offense wakes up, they won't beat the more talented teams in the conference.  GEORGIA

#8 Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans:  Ohio State has looked lackluster since barely scraping out their victory against Penn State, and the defense has definitely suffered without Nick Bosa.  This will be a defensive battle, and the Spartans will likely lead at halftime (the Buckeyes have played so slowly in the first half of most of their games this season).  The Buckeyes should win, but the Spartans will keep it close, like within a touchdown.  OHIO STATE

TCU Horned Frogs at #9 West Virginia Mountaineers:  TCU's conference performance has not matched their early season magic.  Can they regain some of that?  Not against the tough Mountaineers defense.  Defense is not something frequently seen in this conference, and TCU has no defense against it.  WEST VIRGINIA

#10 Washington State Cougars at Colorado Buffaloes:  Colorado is another team who has struggled in conference play after a fabulous non-conference campaign, so they don't appear to be much of a threat to the Cougars. WASHINGTON STATE

#11 LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks:  Arkansas hasn't won a conference game yet.  This won't be it.  LSU

San Jose State Spartans at #13 Utah State Aggies: The Aggies have the best offense in the conference, and one of the best offenses in the country.  They will overwhelm the struggling Spartans.  UTAH STATE

South Florida Bulls at #15 Cincinati Bearcats:  Cincinnati has a tough defense.  The Bulls are typically a defensive team, but their defense has been lacking this season.  This will be a pretty one-sided game.  CINCINNATI

Wisconsin Badgers at #16 Penn State Nittany Lions:  Penn State has struggled since their close loss to Ohio State.  If they cannot regain their form, Wisconsin will sting them.  The Badgers have a strong running game, so the Lions defensive line will help them.  However, when the running game is struggling, the Badgers can sometimes pull out some interesting plays to rejuvenate the offense.  If they do that in this game, Wisconsin could pull off the upset.  PENN STATE

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at #17 UAB Blazers:  The Blazers have a blazing defense.  They have averaged allowing less than seven points per Conference USA opponent.  Will the Eagles do that?  They may score more than 7 points, but not by much; not enough to win.  UAB

Northwestern Wildcats at #18 Iowa Hawkeyes:  Northwestern is an interesting team this year.  They have not been impressive, but they seem to produce just enough to win.  They have lost only one conference game this season, despite losing all of their non-conference games.  Iowa typically is the team that plays up to the skill level of their opponent, but they are faltering a bit this year.  Iowa has the talent to win this game, but will Northwestern pull off another "just enough" victory?  I'll pick Iowa, but they cannot make stupid mistakes.  IOWA

#19 Texas Longhorns at Texas Tech Red Raiders:  This could be an interesting game.  Texas has a better defense, but the Raiders have a strong offense.  How good is that Texas defense?  They couldn't hold back Oklahoma, but won the Red River Rivalry by an offensive flurry.  Can they do that again?  I think so, but watch for an upset here.  TEXAS

#23 Appalachian State Mountaineers at Texas State Bobcats:  One of the weaker offenses in the Sun Belt faces the toughest defense.  This doesn't seem to be a challenge.  APPALACHIAN STATE

#24 Kentucky Wildcats at Tennessee Volunteers: Tennessee's defense has wilted, so this will be an excellent opportunity for the Wildcats offense to shine.  KENTUCKY

Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Illini at Nebraska Cornhuskers:  Las Vegas thinks the Cornhuskers will win by 17 points.  I think the margin of victory, and I think the winner is wrong.  Illinois is starting to get themselves together on offense, and their defense has been pretty good.  Nebraska crumbles against a decent defense.  ILLINOIS

Maryland Terrapins at Indiana Hoosiers:  Vegas also favors Indiana, which shows they haven't been paying attention at all.  Indiana's defense sucks, so the Terrapins will move the ball at will.  The Hoosiers offense is okay, but they won't be able to keep pace.  MARYLAND

Purdue Boilermakers at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  Purdue is chasing Northwestern for a shot at the Big Ten title.  Minnesota, after a fabulous non-conference schedule, has collapsed.  No contest.  PURDUE

Other Games of Interest
Troy Trojans at Georgia Southern Eagles:  Troy leads the East division, and a win here would make them the clear frontrunner.  Georgia Southern is no easy target, though.  They have already beaten Appalachian State.  A win here would give them tiebreaker control over both of their competitors for the division title.  Troy has the better stats, but only by a slim margin.  I have to favor the determination of the home team, especially after their performance against Appalachian State.  GEORGIA SOUTHERN

North Texas Mean Green at Old Dominion Monarchs:  Old Dominion is struggling in conference play, which should give North Texas a clear edge.  NORTH TEXAS

UCLA Bruins at Arizona State Sun Devils:  This has not been UCLA's year.  While they would love to engineer an upset over Herm Edwards and his young Sun Devils squad, I don't think they have the power to do it.  ARIZONA STATE

Temple Owls at Houston Cougars:  Houston leads the West while Temple wants to keep pace with Cincy and UCF in the East.  Admirable goal, and they have already beaten Cincy to help that cause, but Houston's high-powered offense will prove too much.  HOUSTON

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