Tuesday, December 11, 2018

NCAA Football Final Top 25 and Bowl picks

Here is the final regular season Top 25, including the results of the Army-Navy game:

Top 25 [Last week's/last published position(s)]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0) [1/1]
2. Clemson Tigers (13-0) [2/2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) [3/3]
4. UCF Golden Knights (12-0) [4/4]
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) [5/6]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (12-1) [6/7]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) [7/5]
8. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) [8/8]
9. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3) [9/9]
10. Fresno State Bulldogs (11-2) [10/10]
11. Boise State Broncos (10-3) [11/11]
12. Washington State Cougars (10-2) [12/12]
13. Utah State Aggies (10-2) [13/13]
14. Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-2) [14/14]
15. Cincinnati Bearcats (10-2) [15/15]
16. LSU Tigers (9-3) [16/17]
17. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-3) [17/18]
18. Texas Longhorns (9-4) [18/16]
19. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) [19/19]
20. Florida Gators (9-3) [20/20]
21. Army Black Knights (10-2) [22/21]
22. Washington Huskies (10-3) [21/22]
23. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) [23/23]
24. Syracuse Orange (9-3) [24/24]
25. NC State Wolfpack (9-3) [25/NR]
Dropped off: Buffalo Bulls [#25]
On the Edge: Temple Owls (8-4), Memphis Tigers (8-5), UAB Blazers (10-3), North Texas Mean Green (9-3), Houston Cougars (8-4)

Now let's look at the bowls.  All bowl eligible teams from Power Five conferences made it, and only 6-5 Southern Miss was excluded who I think should have been included.  We have a total of 39 bowl games, but I won't split them exactly into thirds; I'll cover only the first 11 in this column.  We'll see only one team from a Power Five conference in this batch, but four conference winners (MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt, and Conference USA), adding insult to the lack of respect given to Group of Five teams.  I hope some of them demolish their opponents, and some of the Power Five v Group of Five games go to the underdog.

Sat Dec 15
Cure Bowl: Tulane Green Wave (6-6) v Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (7-6) : Neither team has an extensive bowl history, although Tulane is certainly more used to spotlight games.  Louisiana was impressive.  Four of their six losses were to ranked teams (Alabama, Mississippi State, and twice to Appalachian State).  This team is overlooked but very strong, and that should prove more than Tulane was expecting.  LOUISIANA

New Mexico Bowl:  North Texas Mean Green (9-3) v #13 Utah State Aggies (10-2) : Definitely a matchup deserving a later time, this one is likely to lean heavily to the Aggies.  Not just for their strong offense, not just for their Top 25 ranking, but because North Texas has an atrocious 2-7 bowl record.  UTAH STATE

Las Vegas Bowl:  Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5) v #10 Fresno State Bulldogs (11-2) : Arizona State and Wisconsin are probably the two best 7-5 teams out there, yet the Sun Devils are not likely to demonstrate it in this game.  Mountain West champs Fresno State have an explosive offense.  They proved they can battle defensively, too, as shown by the Mountain West Championship.  With their only losses to Minnesota and Boise State (and they avenged that loss in the aforementioned Mountain West Championship), Fresno State should bring a second bowl win the Mountain West conference. FRESNO STATE

Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern Eagles (9-3) v Eastern Michigan Eagles (7-5) : The battle of the Eagles, but only one will soar.  This is only the third bowl game for Eastern Michigan.  This is the second consecutive bowl for frequent FCS champ Georgia Southern, and they won their first one.  They know how to handle these big games.  GEORGIA SOUTHERN

New Orleans Bowl: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-5) v #14 Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-2) : Big Sky champ Appalachian State gets a maintain their perfect bowl record and rack up a third win for the Big Sky Conference with a devastating win over Middle Tennessee.  That will also start Conference USA at 0-3.  APPALACHIAN STATE

Tues Dec 18
Boca Raton Bowl:  UAB Blazers (10-3) v Northern Illinois Huskies (8-5) : It's a showdown of two conference champs (DEFINITELY should have been later in the bowl season) as the surprise MAC winner faces the Conference USA champion Blazers.  UAB has not won a bowl game, but they should break that streak this year.  While Northern Illinois can be tough in bowl games, UAB just has too many weapons to lose this game.  UAB

Wed Dec 19
Frisco Bowl: San Diego State Aztecs (7-5) v Ohio Bobcats (8-4) : San Diego has the better bowl record, and the better non-conference record this season, but I like Ohio's chances.  The Bobcats come in on the strength of a winning streak, while the Aztecs lost their last three games. That's not a good way to enter in the bowls.  OHIO

Thurs Dec 20
Gasparilla Bowl: Marshall Thundering Herd (8-4) at South Florida Bulls (7-5) : Man, Conference USA really got the short end of things in bowl matchups.  This game might have found them favored over a struggling South Florida, except this is practically a home game for the Bulls.  That can't be good for Marshall.  SOUTH FLORIDA

Fri Dec 21
Bahamas Bowl: Florida International Golden Panthers (8-4) v Toledo Rockets (7-5) : Florida International certainly has the better team, but will that team win?  Toledo is a rare MAC team that has a winning bowl record, and they've gone to many of them.  This one could be the closest bowl game of all, and could go either way.  FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Western Michigan Broncos (7-5) v BYU Cougars (6-6) : Another pick for the underdog.  It's not just that Western Michigan has a horrible bowl record, but it's also because they have allowed more points against FBS team than they have scored.  A team struggling like that probably shouldn't be playing in a bowl game, but definitely shouldn't win.  BYU

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