NFL 2018 Week 17 picks

Most of the playoff spots are set, but many teams are vying for position.  Only New Orleans and Dallas can relax, and neither of their owners want them to do so.  We'll see what actually happens.

Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Bucs:  DeSean Jackson has publicly cried to leave Tampa, which creates some tension in the locker room.  Not that they were likely to win this game, anyway.  FALCONS, 24-20

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints:  I think some key offensive players will take a break this game, but the Saints defense should push the Panthers enough to win this game.  The Panthers have not played well against tough defenses, and the Saints have a good one this season.  SAINTS, 20-16

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants:  Despite the opinion of Jerry Jones, I think the Cowboys will rest some players this game, which will be the opening the Giants need to finish with a win.  The Giants have found some life since Odell Beckham Jr challenged them after Week 8, and they want to end strong.  GIANTS, 23-16

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers:  The Packers are banged up, but they won't slack off.  After all, they have the entire off-season to heal.  They don't want to finish with nine losses, so they will fight.  When the Pack really wants to win, they'll find a way to do that.  PACK, 23-17

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: The Texans have a shot at a bye week, so they want this win.  They won't rest, figuring a win will help them get an extra week of rest, so the Jags will have their hands full.  Deshaun Watson has sparked the Texans offense, and with their stiff defense, this team is definitely a Super Bowl contender, especially since both the Chiefs and Chargers have exposed vulnerabilities in recent weeks.  TEXANS, 24-16

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills:  The big question for the Bills is do you give Josh Allen more playing time, or let him rest his injured body?  I'd keep him on the sidelines, as I don't think the Bills will win anyway.  At this point, their better move is to improve their draft position and get a good burly offensive lineman.  DOLPHINS, 23-13

New York Jets at New England Patriots:  The Patriots are also playing for a potential bye week, so they won't rest.  Of course, this is a Bill Belichick team -- they don't understand the meaning of "rest" anyway.  The Jets will certainly battle.  They often do against the Pats, and Sam Darnold has been looking better.  PATS, 27-21

Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks:  The Seahawks are already in the playoffs, but they want a win to stay in fifth position.  They don't want to travel to New Orleans; they'd rather play either the Rams or the Bears.  With their defense, that bodes ill for the offensively-challenged Cardinals.  SEAHAWKS, 24-13

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings:  This is one of the most crucial games of the weekend.  The Vikings are playing for a playoff berth.  The Bears are playing for a potential first week bye.  This one will be a real battle.  That's when defense becomes important, and that's the Bears strength this season.  BEARS, 27-20

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh needs a win and a Ravens loss to win the division.  That's the only way they're getting into the playoffs.  They can hope Cleveland, with Baker Mayfield at the helm, will surprise Baltimore (see the next game).  For their part, Big Ben and the Steelers will pulverize the Bengals to give them a chance.  STEELERS, 26-20

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens:  How important has Baker Mayfield been to this team?  They have the potential to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2007, Derek Anderson's first season.  They have to get past the Ravens to do it, though, and the Ravens want to win to ensure the division title and playoff spot.  I think they'll get that win, but the Browns won't make it easy.  RAVENS, 26-23

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos:  What's at stake in the AFC West?  The division winner is the top seed in the AFC, the runner-up is the fourth seed.  The Chargers want that title, and a win here is required.  Defensively, these two teams are fairly evenly matched.  Offensively, not so much.  If Rivers and company do not make any mistakes, they should win this game.  CHARGERS, 28-24

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs:  It's pretty easy for the Chiefs; win, and they are the top AFC seed.  That should be sufficient motivation for Patrick Mahomes and company.  The Raiders defense is okay but not quick, and the Chiefs are a fast-paced offenses.  This should go their way.  CHIEFS, 30-20

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins:  The Eagles are hoping the Chicago Bears win, giving the Eagles a chance to secure a playoff spot with a win.  With Nick Foles generating some magic, they might do that.  If the Eagles are already eliminated, they may relax enough to allow Washington to win, but I'm not sure Nick Foles knows how to relax.  EAGLES, 24-21

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams:  The Rams need a win to secure a first week bye, especially if the Bears have already won earlier in the day.  The 49ers offense has been getting a bit better recently, but they are yet to win on the road this season, and I think the Rams will continue that streak.  RAMS, 30-20

Sunday night
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: The last game of the season determines the last playoff spot in the AFC.  While a Texans loss could give the Colts a shot at the division title, it is more likely that this game determines who occupies the sixth AFC seed.  The Titans have the defense, the Colts have the offense, and the Titans have a great home record.  Marcus Mariota has pledged to do everything he can to play this game, but that might be a mistake.  If he rushes his return, he might do himself more harm (see Robert Griffin III). Could Tennessee win without him?  Possibly.  The Colts seem more stoked for this game, but this one could really go either way.  COLTS, 24-23