NCAA Football bowl picks part III

As I type this, my Alma Mater the University of Illinois is leading Cal in the Redbox Bowl, but Cal is driving.

I wanted to write this column after the semi-finals were done, so I can include the National Championship Game in this series of predictions.  Right now, in the chase for the best bowl record, the two best conferences are the SEC (2-0) and the Big Ten (3-1).  The worst is the Big XII (0-3).  All conferences could finish with non-losing records, but some conferences are on the edge.  One more loss by the Big XII, American Athletic, Conference USA, and MAC will guarantee a losing record.  The conference in the greatest jeopardy is the Big XII, who could end winless.  Their best bet remaining would be Texas, as Kansas State has an atrocious bowl record.

Tues Dec 31
Belk Bowl : Virginia Tech Hokies (8-4) v Kentucky Wildcats (7-5) - Kentucky had a rough time in conference play, but they played well against non-conference opponents.  I have to think they have the advantage here, despite the worse record.  KENTUCKY

Sun Bowl : Florida State Seminoles (6-6) v Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5) - When in doubt, go with Herm Edwards.  ARIZONA STATE

Liberty Bowl : #18 Navy Midshipmen (10-2) v Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) - Navy has a tough "pound it out" ground game that can exhaust opponents.  The Wildcats have enough people to rotate in to the defense to keep people fresh, but the depth of talent might be a bit lacking.  Furthermore, they will do something to hurt themselves, as they frequently do in bowl games.  Navy wins as the only Group of Five representative among the New Years Six.  NAVY

Arizona Bowl : Wyoming Cowboys (7-5) v Georgia State Panthers (7-5) - Georgia State racked up a good enough record to reach a bowl, but they have a negative point differential.  Wyoming is just the better team.  WYOMING

Alamo Bowl : #7 Utah Utes (11-2) v Texas Longhorns (7-5) - When it comes to records in bowl games, it almost doesn't matter to Texas.  They can win when they are a big underdog or slip up and lose when they are favored.  However, they have a MASSIVE uphill battle against the Pac-12 runner-up.  UTAH

Wed Jan 1
Citrus Bowl : #14 Michigan Wolverines (9-3) v #4 Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2) - Michigan has an abysmal bowl record, and they have to face a highly talented Alabama squad.  This doesn't look good for Jim Harbaugh's squad.  ALABAMA

Outback Bowl : #16 Minnesota Golden Gophers (10-2) v #20 Auburn Tigers (9-3) - Many national analysts are favoring Auburn, but Minnesota has been underestimated all season.  It won't faze them at all, and might even motivate them.  It's the Gophers offense against the Tigers defense.  The Gophers overcame the stiff Penn State defense on their home field but fell (barely) to the Hawkeyes defense in Iowa.  How will they do on a neutral field?  Good enough, I think.  MINNESOTA

Rose Bowl : #6 Oregon Ducks (11-2) v Wisconsin Badgers (10-3) - The Pac-12 frequently does well in the Rose Bowl, but can Oregon and their "hot and cold" QB beat Wisconsin?  The Badgers could have won the Big Ten, except Ryan Day makes excellent halftime adjustments.  I think Wisconsin will lead at halftime and carry that to the end.  WISCONSIN

Sugar Bowl : #11 Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) v #12 Baylor Bears (11-2) - On paper, this looks like a close contest, and the Big XII may need a great Baylor performance to prevent a winless bowl season.  However, the SEC is deadly in the Sugar Bowl, and I don't think Baylor's defense can contain the Georgia offense.  Can Baylor match Georgia score for score?  At first, perhaps, but I think the Bulldogs will exhaust them.  GEORGIA

Thurs Jan 2
Birmingham Bowl : Boston College Eagles (6-6) v Cincinnati Bearcats (10-3) - Boston College had to pull off a couple of surprise wins to get to this bowl game, but the Bearcats defense will prevent them from gaining this upset.  CINCINNATI

Gator Bowl : Indiana Hoosiers (8-4) v Tennessee Volunteers (7-5) : The last bowl game featuring Power Five teams  finishes the Big Ten v SEC showdowns.  The Vols had a good defense this year, but is it good enough to slow the quick-strike Hoosiers offense?  Perhaps at first, but Indiana will surge.  Worse, the Vols mediocre offense won't be able to come back if they fall behind.  INDIANA

Fri Jan 3
Idaho Potato Bowl : Ohio Bobcats (6-6) v Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) - Whoa, here's a hard game to pick.  I saw Ohio only once this season, and I don't think I saw Nevada at all.  Nevada has a negative point differential, so I would expect Ohio to win, but that crazy blue turf can confuse teams who aren't used to it.  Nevada's been there.  NEVADA

San Jan 4
Armed Forces Bowl : Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (7-5) v Tulane Green Wave (6-6) - Southern Miss is a good team whose defense, their typical strength, started poorly but improved as the season progressed.  I'd pick them, expect surprising Tulane could really get it up for particular games this year, and be a real force when they do.  A bowl game is one they are likely to get up for.  TULANE in an upset

Mon Jan 6
Mobile Bowl : Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (10-3) v Miami Ohio Redhawks (8-5) - Louisiana won their first four bowl games, but have gone 0-2 since.  The Redhawks have had a 7-4 bowl record, so they have been better.  Sounds good for them, right?  Except the Redhawks have not been very consistent this season, while Louisiana has been a competitive force throughout.  LOUISIANA

Mon Jan 13
National Championship Game : #2 Clemson Tigers (14-0) v #1 LSU Tigers (14-0) - Let's face it, there were only two teams that could be called truly "complete" teams this season:  Ohio State and LSU.  We won't get to see those two battle, so anything other matchup is anticlimactic.  No matter how advanced Clemson thinks they are, their defense can't stop LSU, and Ohio State already showed how a defense can slow the Clemson offense.  LSU