Thursday, August 26, 2021

NCAA 2021 Week 1 picks

 The 2021 season kicks off a little early, and so some teams will appear TWICE in this column, as they play this Saturday (Aug 28) and then during the first official week of the NCAA Football, over Labor Day Weekend.

Let's start with two games from our "early Saturday":

Sat Aug 28

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Illinois Fighting Illini:  The Bret Bielema returns to the Big Ten Conference, this time to helm the Illlinois squad.  His emphasis on the running game might help the Illinois, as they have a capable but not dynamic quarterback, so mixing in some running plays will help.  He has the offensive line to make that work, and they have the advantage of a struggling Nebraska team to start the season.  ILLINOIS by ten

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at UCLA Bruins:  The Rainbow Warriors often struggle away from home, and a 12:30pm local start time doesn't help, as most of these players wouldn't even be awake yet in their home time zone.  Hawaii always has a pass-happy offense, so this will be an early test of the Bruins defensive secondary.  A poor Hawaii defense gives UCLA a good chance to win this game.  UCLA by four

Wed Sept 1

UAB Blazers at Jacksonville State (FCS) Gamecocks: Most teams this week face FCS opponents, and UAB is part of that.  This might be the easiest game of the season for UAB to win.  UAB (I do not pick margins for FCS v FBS games)

Thurs Sept 2

Temple Owls at Rutgers Scarlet Knights:  Rutgers gets a nice easy game to start, as Temple looks pretty weak this season.  Great way to crack off the dust from the long off-season.  RUTGERS by 17

Boise State Broncos at UCF Golden Knights:  Talk about opening with a tough opponent!  This one was probably scheduled when UCF was unbeaten.  Unfortunately, that won't be the case this season, and I don't think the Knights will win their home opener.  BOISE STATE by 13

South Florida Bulls at NC State Wolfpack:  The ACC likes to think they are stronger than they are, and this game might be an excellent example.  Although South Florida will be a bit weaker than usual, especially on defense, the Wolfpack is a very young team that has spent almost no time playing together.  I predict disaster.  SOUTH FLORIDA by 16

Ohio State Buckeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers: The Buckeyes begin their trek for another unbeaten Big Ten season.  OHIO STATE by 24

Fri Sept 3

North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Tech Hokies:  The Big Ten isn't the only conference to open with a conference showdown, and this game will highlight why the Hokies are my favorite to win their division.  Although the Tar Heels are well-rounded on both sides of the ball, they will simply be outmatched.  VIRGINIA TECH by 17

Michigan State Spartans at Northwestern Wildcats:  This will be a long and tough season for the Spartans, as demonstrated by this game.  It will be low-scoring, as the Wildcats defense just shreds the fragile line of the Spartans.  NORTHWESTERN by ten

Sat Sept 4

Big Ten:

Western Michigan Broncos at Michigan Wolverines:  The Broncos have a decent team, and they will threaten the Wolverines opener.  I think Coach Harbaugh will find a way to win, but it will be sloppy and lethargic, which might be a good way to describe Michigan all season long.  MICHIGAN by three

Penn State Nittany Lions at Wisconsin Badgers:  Ooh, definitely the best matchup of the conference this week!  Both teams have strong defenses, but the Badgers have the edge on the offensive side of the ball.  I'm also not sure that Penn State plugged some of the holes that were exposed on their squad last year.  If they did, they might surprise the Badgers.  WISCONSIN by five

Fordham (FCS) Rams at Nebraska Cornhuskers: The Cornhuskers will bounce back from their opening loss to Illinois by destroying the Rams.  NEBRASKA by 21

Indiana Hoosiers at Iowa Hawkeyes: The Hawkeyes are having to break in too many new starters on defense to hold back the dynamic Hoosiers offensive surge.  With too many newbies on Iowa's offense, they won't be able to keep pace, either.  INDIANA by 17

West Virginia Mountaineers at Maryland Terrapins:  Maryland is an interesting team.  They typically do very well against non-conference opponents and then struggle in conference play.  Their conference play was a little better last year, but they are still a force to contend with if you are not a Big Ten team.  MARYLAND by 13

Oregon State Beavers at Purdue Boilermakers:  Ah well, it was a nice idea to open against a Pac-12 team.  OREGON STATE by 18

UTSA Roadrunners at Illinois Fighting Illini:  The Illini get to start 2-0, a feat they have rarely achieved in the last 20 years.  ILLINOIS by 18

Other Games of Interest:

Stanford Cardinal at Kansas State Wildcats:  Okay, I give Kansas State credit, they are starting to play more competitive teams among their non-conference opponents (the Wildcats have historically played patsies to open the season).  This one, however, may not have been the best idea.  STANFORD by 17

Fresno State Bulldogs at Oregon Ducks:  On the other hand, Oregon didn't exactly pick an easy opponent to start with, either.  The Bulldogs have a stiff defense, which is always an advantage for the road team.  Oregon's offense often needs a week or two to really get started, too, so things don't look too good for the Ducks to open the season.  FRESNO STATE by 11

Alabama Crimson Tide at Miami Hurricanes:  Really?  Do I really need to publish this pick?  OK, just call me "Captain Obvious".  ALABAMA by 23

Miami Ohio RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats:  Cincinnati's expectations are so high that the national analysts actually gave them a Top Ten preseason ranking!  If these college kids can prevent that from going to their heads, they should have a fairly easy time against the RedHawks.  CINCY by 24

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Mississippi State Bulldogs:  The Battle of the Bulldogs may not end the way the SEC thinks.  Mississippi State does not look like a good team, and you should not expect every Conference USA team to be a pushover.  In fact, this might be the best Conference USA team this year.  LOUISIANA TECH by 23

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Houston Cougars:  Neither team looks quite up to form.  At least Houston has a reasonable defense, enough to shut down the still building Red Raiders.  HOUSTON by six

Georgia Bulldogs at Clemson Tigers:  THIS might be the most exciting game of the entire weekend!  A powerful Georgia team comes into town to face a Trevor Lawrence-less Clemson team that has gotten a lee-ee-tle to cocky for their own good.  GEORGIA by eight

Northern Illinois Huskies at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets:  This will be a real test of how sturdy the Yellow Jackets will be this season.  Northern Illinois won't be their toughest opponent, but they are solid enough to press Tech.  This won't be an easy contest for either team, whoever wins.  GEORGIA TECH by four

LSU Tigers at UCLA Bruins:  High off their victory over Hawaii, the Bruins get brought back to earth by the stiff LSU defense.  LSU by eight

BYU Cougars at Arizona Wildcats:  Arizona doesn't seem to have enough quality players on their roster.  That might grow over the season, but it'll be telling to start.  BYU by eleven

Sun Sept 5

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Florida State Seminoles:  Notre Dame opens with a chance to shellack long-time rival Florida State, a team in a bit of a restructuring mode.  NOTRE DAME by 24

Mon Sept 6

Louisville Cardinals at Ole Miss Rebels:  No team has a longer developmental road than Louisville.  These kids have a lot of heart but very little else to start the season.  OLE MISS by 16


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