For the first time in two years, it's time to start preparing for a full NCAA football season. At least, we hope so, but since many of the nationally-focused teams are in the south, where stupidity still reigns, masks are rarely used, and the Delta variant runs rampant through a population that really doesn't seem to care about their own health and the health of their community, it's hard to say whether this season will actually progress appropriately. As a college educator, we sees first hand the irresponsibility of the average 18- and 19-year-olds, I am highly skeptical.
Regardless, I forge ahead with my predictions. It's really hard to gauge, as last year's performances were not very good indicators of how newer players will gel and perform. Any preseason ranking is complete guesswork (even more than any other year, which is why I don't do them), and any prediction of team performance isn't much more logical than that. For most of the teams, I have determined who has a strong mix of experienced (pre-COVID) and inexperienced, and what coaches do the most with new talent. But, again, anything can happen.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division:
1. Clemson Tigers (8-0/11-1) : Okay, this one was an easy pick. The team has a strong slate of players. Their biggest concern may be the number of players who have signed advertising and endorsement deals. Will they be too distracted with those, and the public appearances that are required of those, to sufficiently practice? Clemson may be the best test of this new willingness to let college players profit from such deals (proving once and for all that the NCAA cares NOTHING about the education of their players), and it might be the best way for Clemson's dominance of the ACC to be crumbled.
2. Florida State Seminoles (5-3/7-5) : In an unusual move, the Seminoles have set themselves up with a tough schedule. Given some of the uncertainty around their defensive backfield, that might not have been a good idea.
3. North Carolina State Wolf Pack (3-5/5-7) : This team has a total of three seniors among all of their squads. They are young but hungry (not unlike the animal who serves as their mascot).
4. Boston College Eagles (2-6/4-8) : Their defense is relying heavily on fifth-year seniors. We'll see how that works out.
5. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2-6/3-9) : Their roster is still being determined. This team will start behind everyone else.
6. Syracuse Orange (1-7/3-9) : Definitely a rebuilding year for this young squad. They could set themselves up for a couple of good years in 2022 and 2023 if some of these youngsters pan out.
7. Louisville Cardinals (1-7/1-11) : If Delta hits this team, they may not even be able to field a team. They have a small roster with few replacements at some key positions.
Coastal Division:
1. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-2/8-4) : Possibly the most experienced squad in the division, this team should do quite well.
2. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-3/8-4) : Proving that they can play more than basketball, the Tar Heels have one of the best defenses in the conference. They have some new players in key offensive positions, but they have an easy early schedule to let those players gain some experience before facing the toughest conference opponents.
3. Pittsburgh Panthers (5-3/8-4) : They have some decent experience on this team, and they will take advantage of the weaknesses of many of the teams in the conference.
4. Miami Hurricanes (5-3/6-6) : Their offense is in good shape, but the focus of this team in recent years has been the defense, especially the linebackers and their "turnover chain". Unfortunately, that squad is fairly new, and the chain may not see much action this year.
5. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-4/6-6) : Their offense is light on seniors, but they have a lot of talent. The problem is that they may have one of the worst defenses in the conference, and I'm not sure they can outscore many of their opponents, especially with an inconsistent quarterback.
6. Virginia Cavaliers (3-5/4-6) : Another tough year for the Cavs, who (like Louisville) has a thin squad.
7. Duke Blue Devils (2-6/5-7)
Big XII
This conference plays with a cloud over its head, knowing its days may be numbered. With Texas and Oklahoma fleeing to the SEC in 2025 (or sooner if the conference implodes), the players have to wonder what they are playing for? And where will they go? They are too far east to interest the Pac-12, they are not academically-inclined enough to interest the Big Ten, and they aren't interested in merging with a Group of Five conference (unless that action lifts the conference in question to the Power Five). Their only hope is if the ACC, desperate to increase the Q rating of their conference in general, will pick up many of the teams, in an effort to match their old rivals the SEC as a 16-team superconference.
1. Texas Longhorns (8-1/11-1) : With squads filled with juniors and seniors, this team is charged to make a run this year.
2. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2/10-2) : Another strong squad, but they have enough questions at key positions to believe they'll make a championship run.
3. Baylor Bears (7-2/9-3) : Interesting team, with a large number of fifth year (and even sixth year!) players to support a large number of newbies (freshmen and sophomores). This could go very well, or it could go disasterously wrong. I'm counting on Coach Aranda, with his experience at LSU, to hold it together.
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-4/7-5) : Lots of youth on the defense and on the offensive line, but this team can still intimidate.
5. TCU Horned Frogs (5-4/7-5) : This team has a great slate of receivers, but an inconsistent quarterback makes you wonder how well they will be utilized. Their young defensive backfield makes them susceptible to big pass plays.
6. Kansas State Wildcats (5-4/7-5) : A very experienced defense will result in some low-scoring games (a rarity in this conference!), which will help develop a young offensive backfield.
7. Iowa State Cyclones (4-5/6-6) : Another strong defense with an offensive support squad that needs to develop.
8. Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-5/6-6) : Good experience, tough schedule
9. West Virginia Mountaineers (1-8/2-10) : A year of development for a young squad
10. Kansas Jayhawks (0-9/1-11)
Big Ten
East Division:
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0/12-0) : With Justin Fields lighting up the Bears, eyes turn to what the Buckeyes will provide this year. Once again, they will dominate the conference, as they continue to have one of the best talent development processes in the nation.
2. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-3/9-3) : They have plenty of returning starters, which is both an advantage and a disadvantage. They have played together and know what to expect, but they need to improve on some key problems from last year.
3. Indiana Hoosiers (6-3/9-3) : Lots of players return from the team that impressed last season. With one of the best means to prevent COVID from striking, they might be also be the most intact team this season, making them a tough opponent.
4. Maryland Terrapins (5-4/8-4) : Once again, a strong defense to complement a dynamic offense. The offensive line has to replace some key pieces, though, so it might a bit harder in the beginning of the season for them.
5. Michigan State Spartans (4-5/6-6) : Their usually strong defense has way too many new faces to believe they will do well, but they may improve as the season progresses. At least they have a good slate of runners and receivers to support a new quarterback, and a strong offensive line to protect him.
6. Michigan Wolverines (3-6/5-7) : This might be the final year for Jim Harbaugh, as his offensively-challenged Wolverines will suffer worse problems. A fractured offensive line will make it hard for the quarterback, who does not have a great slate of runners to help him. At least a talented and experienced defense will keep them from being blown out of games.
7. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-9/2-10) : Another tough season for the Jersey boys
West Division:
1. Wisconsin Badgers (8-1/10-2) : Once again, the Badgers will control the ground game and chew up clock as they churn out the rushing yards. A strong defense makes them a tough force to combat.
2. Northwestern Wildcats (7-2/10-2) : While they have some new faces in the defensive backfield, their offense might be the best in the division.
3. Illinois Fighting Illini (5-4/8-4) : With lots of players returning from last year's impressive squad, this could be a great year for the Illini. They won't surprise teams this time, but they will compete.
4. Iowa Hawkeyes (4-5/7-5) : Their offensive is filled with new players, which is not good for a team that has relied on their offensive firepower.
5. Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-6/5-7) : QB Martinez will be under even more pressure this year than last year, as the offensive line has to be patched and rebuilt again. With a young defensive squad on the opposite end of the ball, the Cornhuskers will be playing "catch up" all season.
6. Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-7/4-8) : Great lines, both offensive and defensive, but that's about the best positions they have.
7. Purdue Boilermakers (1-8/1-11)
BYU Cougars (6-6) : The first of our independents (most of whom will be discussed in the Group of Five column preview column) will have a tough year. They have a schedule of great teams, but they face the difficulties of having a fairly inexperienced offense.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2) : Clearly the tops of the independents, the Irish field a strong team who have a huge goal, feeling they fell short last year. This will be a year to regain their pride.
Pac-12
North Division:
1. Stanford Cardinal (7-2/9-3) : Powerful defense. The offense has some new faces, but the defense will slow down opponents enough for the newbies to get comfortable.
2. Washington State Cougars (6-3/9-3) : Another strong defense, but more concerns on offense than Stanford.
3. California Golden Bears (5-4/8-4) : A potential gold mine in Wisconsin transfer QB Jack Coan, he will revitalize the Bears offense. Unfortunately a weak defense will mean Coan and his offense will have to work harder.
4. Oregon Ducks (5-4/6-6) : A mostly young squad, although they have tremendous experience in the linebackers and wide receivers. At least it's a place to start.
5. Oregon State Beavers (4-5/7-3) : They have a good defensive squad, but a young offense means they may have trouble putting points on the board.
6. Washington Huskies (3-6/6-6) : Way too much of the team has new starters. It will take them most of the season to gel. They might have a good 2022 if these players develop.
South Division:
1. USC Trojans (6-3/7-5) : They have a new quarterback but plenty of talent to support him, and a strong line to protect him. A speedy cast of linebackers makes their defense a threat.
2. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-4/8-4) : Herm Edwards fields a strong defensive squad. The offensive line and tight ends need some work, but Coach Edwards has some talent to work with.
3. UCLA Bruins (5-4/6-6) : A good offense, although they welcome many new receivers to the roster. A weak defensive line causes concern, but their defensive backfield can be fierce.
4. Utah Utes (4-5/5-7) : A fairly young team, but the talent is there. They will start off slowly, but they will improve as the season progresses.
5. Colorado Buffaloes (5-4/6-6) : Another young team, but Colorado doesn't tend to develop players as quickly.
6. Arizona Wildcats (3-6/5-7) : They have a decent defense, but the offense has way too many holes and question marks to believe they will contend.
SEC
East Division:
1. Florida Gators (7-1/10-2) : While their receiving corps is a little young, they stiff defense will give them the time to develop.
2. Georgia Bulldogs (6-2/9-3) : Their lines, both offensive and defensive, are their weakest points. Since they like to run the ball, that offensive line will hamper their game plan.
3. Tennessee Volunteers (5-3/9-3) : Look out for the Vols! They have a strong team with many players who have played together for a while. They could surprise.
4. Kentucky Wildcats (4-4/8-4) : A tough defense and strong offense, the Wildcats will be a competitor in many games. Unfortunately they have trouble close games, fading in the fourth quarter. If that continues, they will struggle.
5. Missouri Tigers (4-4/7-5) : A new quarterback and young receivers may limit their offense early on. Their defense is stable, but not especially quick.
6. South Carolina Gamecocks (2-6/5-7) : A mostly young team, they may threaten teams with a strong corps of linebackers.
7. Vanderbilt Commodores (1-7/3-9) : Good offense but an inexperienced (and slightly undersized) group of runners, and a questionable defense, means this will be a long year for Vandy.
West Division:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0/12-0) : Another powerful squad and dominating year for the Tide.
2. Ole Miss Rebels (6-2/10-2) : The Rebels have a great chance for a strong year, as they have a very experienced and talented team available to take advantage of some of the weaknesses in other teams in the conference.
3. Auburn Tigers (6-2/9-3) : QB Bo Nix has a great slate of players around him. The defensive line has been restructured, so it will take a little time for them to gel, but this team will likely be a force by the end of the season.
4. LSU Tigers (4-4/7-5) : The future is not so bright for the other team of Tigers, as a large number of new players will require time to build this ragtag squad into a real team.
5. Texas A&M Aggies (3-5/6-6) : Another young team, they won't get a chance to gel, as Delta has already taken out two potential starters. They'll be moving players in and out of the lineup too much to get any consistency out of this team.
6. Arkansas Razorbacks (2-6/5-7) : This team has some young raw talent. They'll spend this year figuring out what they have, and perhaps they can compete next year.
7. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-6/4-8) : Too much young and thin bench for some key offensive positions bodes ill for the Bulldogs.
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