Thursday, September 30, 2021

NCAA Football 2021 Week 5 picks

 We have some interesting games, especially in the SEC.  Before we get to that, we'll look at games prior to Saturday.

Thurs Sept 30

Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes : Neither team has been stellar, but Virginia has shown a bit more punch and drive than the Hurricanes.  VIRGINIA by eight

Fri Oct 1

#6 Iowa Hawkeyes at Maryland Terrapins : I thought this might be a competitive game when I wrote my preseason previews, but Maryland hasn't quite lived up to their potential.  Maybe this game will be a wake-up call.  IOWA by 16

BYU Cougars at Utah State Aggies : BYU should roll in this one.  BYU by 17

Sat Oct 2

Top 25

#15 Ole Miss Rebels at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide : The SEC gets some games matching ranked opponents this week.  As impressive as Ole Miss has been, and despite an extra week to prepare for this game, I don't think the Rebels really have a chance in this one, although they might make the first quarter competitive.  ALABAMA by 20

#10 Arkansas Razorbacks at #2 Georgia Bulldogs : Can the Razorbacks hold back the most dynamic offense in the country?  I don't think so.  They should be able to score well against Georgia, but the Bulldogs will simply score more.  GEORGIA by 14

Indiana Hoosiers at #3 Penn State Nittany Lions : Penn State faces an inconsistent Hoosier squad.  This is potentially a game where Indiana could get hot, but I still think the Nittany Lions will have it under control.  PENN STATE by 16

#4 Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats : I don't care that this is a rivalry game, I don't Kentucky doing much here.  FLORIDA by 23

#5 Michigan Wolverines at Wisconsin Badgers : Wisconsin has not started out very well.  This game will either start to turn them around or sink their season.  Unfortunately, I fear the latter.  MICHIGAN by 16

#7 Cincinnati Bearcats at #9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish : The Bearcats will likely be the toughest opponent the Irish face.  Cincy is not used to games like this, so I give the Irish a slight edge, but an upset is possible.  NOTRE DAME by three

#8 Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal : Stanford is attempting to right their seasonal ship, but this is their greatest challenge yet.  I'm not sure they are prepared for a team of this quality yet.  OREGON by ten

#11 Ohio State Buckeyes at #13 Rutgers Scarlet Knights : The Knights offense will stretch the still-developing Buckeyes defense to the max.  If the Buckeyes want to prevent a second upset loss this season, they'll need to push back against Rutgers.  Their ball control can be slippery, so their defense needs to force a couple of turnovers.  OHIO STATE by nine

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at #12 Michigan State Spartans : Western Kentucky gave Indiana fits last week, and challenged Army the week before.  The Spartans haven't been sharp, so this will likely be another close game, but they should emerge victorious.  MICHIGAN STATE by four

Louisville Cardinals at #14 Wake Forest Demon Deacons : Louisville is having a tough season.  This should be a breeze.  WAKE FOREST by 17

Mississippi State Bulldogs at #16 Texas A&M Aggies : The Bulldogs gave LSU everything they could handle, but the Aggies so far have been a more impressive team.  Still, if they aren't careful, an upset could be brewing.  TEXAS A&M by five

#17 Texas Longhorns at TCU Horned Frogs : Texas faces perhaps their toughest challenge of the season so far.  TCU has a strong defense, but they haven't faced a team with the power of Texas.  This will be an important game for both teams.  TEXAS by four

UL Monroe Indians at #18 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers : This should be an easy victory for the Sun Belt leader.  COASTAL CAROLINA by 17

#19 Auburn Tigers at LSU Tigers : The Battle of the Tigers favors Auburn this year, but with these two teams, records go out the window.  LSU might press their opponent, so this could be either team's year.  AUBURN by six

#20 Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys : A battle of two unbeaten teams in the Big XII could go either way, but Baylor has shown a quicker and sturdier offense, so the scales seem to lean in their favor.  BAYLOR by six

Washington Huskies at #21 Oregon State Beavers : The Beavers gave USC a hard time last week.  Washington doesn't seem to have the same strength, so it should be an easier battle, although it still remains to see if the Beavers' easy victory last week was a fluke.  OREGON STATE by 13

Arizona State Sun Devils at #22 UCLA Bruins : The leaders of the Pac-12 South division face off, and it can be anyone's ball game.  UCLA has a stronger offense and a more stable game plan.  The Sun Devils have a tough defense, but their offense can be a bit sporadic.  UCLA should be able to succeed due to that, but if Arizona State has an excellent day, they can win.  UCLA by six

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at #23 NC State Wolfpack : The Wolfpack didn't really need an extra week to prepare for the Bulldogs, but I'm sure they're happy to be back in action.  NC STATE by 16

#24 Fresno State Bulldogs at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors : The Bulldogs have one of the most potent offenses in the land, and will be able to run circles around the Warriors.  FRESNO STATE by 17

#25 Boston College Eagles at Clemson Tigers : This is Boston College's ACC opener, as they face the stiffest defense in the conference.  Fortunately for the Eagles, the Tigers also have the worst offense in the conference, and the Eagles defense is no slough, either.  BOSTON COLLEGE by eleven

Big Ten

Charlotte 49ers at Illinois Fighting Illini : Illini QB Brandon Peters seems to be getting worse instead of better.  His consecutive overthrows cost them a potential victory against Purdue last week.  Fortunately Charlotte is a fairly weak team, but I would use the opportunity to play backup QB Artur Sitkowski.  Although the Illini lost to UTSA with Sitkowski under center, that was more due to defensive mistakes, mistakes the Illini seem to have fixed in their last two games, both of which have been close games.  ILLINOIS by ten

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers : Purdue struggled offensively last week, and needed a backup QB to score their only touchdown.  Minnesota struggled last week, too.  This is an important momentum and morale booster for someone.  I think Minnesota has the talent, but if Purdue gets on track first it might be an upset win for the Boilermakers.  MINNESOTA by six

Northwestern Wildcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers : Nebraska played Oklahoma tough (that rivalry remains intact no matter how many years have elapsed since their last game!), but I think that was more an emotional boost than a talent boost.  While Northwestern has not done as well as I expected, I think they can prevail here.  NORTHWESTERN by eight

Other Games of Interest

Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats : Interesting game.  The Sooners had their hands full with Nebraska last week, and I don't think they expected to have such a tough time.  Meanwhile, K State lost their first game.  This could get really interesting, while the lead switching back and forth.  I think K State has the better team, but this could come down to who has the final drive.  KANSAS STATE by two

South Florida Bulls at SMU Mustangs : Nice easy game for SMU, since South Florida is really in the midst of a rebuilding year.  Could this catapault them into the Top 25?  I don't know, there are plenty of other teams to consider.  SMU by 18


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