Sunday, September 24, 2023

NCAA 2023 Week 5 picks

 It's a bit calmyer week, with only three contests between Top 25 teams.  One of those is on Friday night, so let's start there.

Friday Sept 29

#24 Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolf Pack : This will be the first real test of the Cardinals strength.  The Wolf Pack is a good team, and usually even better at home, but that hasn't been the case this year so far.  If they find their home groove, they can win, but I'm sticking with the birds.  LOUISVILLE by eight

#15 Utah Utes at #22 Oregon State Beavers : Another team who plays better at home, the Beavers stumbled on the road last week.  They are looking to right the ship this week, but the Utes will make that very difficult.  UTAH by 13

Cincinnati Bearcats at BYU Cougars : Two newcomers to the Big XII play each other this week.  Both are not performing as expected, so which team will step it up this week?  I think the Cougars have a better chance.  BYU by six

Saturday Sept 30

Top 25

#1 USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes : The Buffaloes were buffaloed last week.  Expect a repeat.  USC by 26

#2 Michigan Wolverines at Nebraska Cornhuskers : Nebraska is a better team this year, but not good enough to slow the Wolverines.  MICHIGAN by 28

#3 Washington Huskies at Arizona Wildcats : All three of the top teams have very easy opponents.  WASHINGTON by 30

Iowa State Cyclones at #4 Oklahoma Sooners : Oklahoma has a tougher opponent, but their offense will overpower the Cyclones.  OKLAHOMA by 23

Kansas Jayhawks at #6 Texas Longhorns : Kansas has jumped out to a great start this season, but now they face a real challenge.  The longhorns will prove to ve too much of a challenge for the Jayhawks.  TEXAS by 24

#8 Georgia Bulldogs at #25 Auburn Tigers : It looks like this is the last week the Tigers will be in the Top 25.  GEORGIA by 16.

#9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #17 Duke Blue Devils : This will likely be the most exciting of the Top 25 matchups.  Duke has a good team, but they are not used to this position.  The last time they were in the Top 25 they couldn't sustain it.  NOTRE DAME by 16

#10 Oregon Ducks at Standford Cardinal : Stanford is no threat this season.  OREGON by lots

#12 Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats : The Wildcats came back in the fourth quarter last week, but the Nittany Lions defense won't allow that this week.  PENN STATE by 22

Florida Gators at #14 Kentucky Wildcats : Florida beat Tennessee a couple of weeks ago, and are hoping for a similar success against a ranked opponent.  I';m not sure they will.  They beat Tennessee in the Swamp; it's a different story on the road.  KENTUCKY by four

San Diego State Aztecs at #19 Air Force Falcons : The Aztecs are a good team this year, but the Falcons have power.  Their ground game is punishing and they have enough air support to keep opposing defenses guessing.  AIR FORCE by ten

#20 Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs : Alabama is not happy that they were absent from the rankings, so they want to impress now that they have chosen a starting QB.  This game begins that streak.  ALABAMA by 13

Clemson Tigers at #21 Syracuse Orange : Clemson fought Florida State hard, but I don't think they'll take Syracuse seriously, and this is a serious threat this year.  SYRACUSE by six

#23 Texas A&M Aggies at Arkansas Razorbacks : Arkansas can be a shocker, but I don't think they'll do so here.  TEXAS A&M by 16

Big Ten

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Minnesota Golden Gophers : The Gophers let a clear win get away from them last week.  They have something to prove, and they will take it out on the Cajuns.  MINNESOTA by lots

Indiana Hoosiers at Maryland Terrapins : The Terrapins are an unbeaten team that nobody is touting.  They have a chip on their shoulder with a desire for national attention, so they hope wiping out their opponents is a way to get it.  MARYLAND by 23

Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers : Both of these teams have a tendency to hurt themselves.  The winner will likely be the team who makes fewer mistakes.  I'll go for the home team for that.  PURDUE by four

Wagner at Rutgers Scarlet Knights : Easy win.  RUTGERS by lots

Michigan State Spartans at Iowa Hawkeyes : The Hawkeyes were completely shut down by Penn State, so they want a nice performance to wipe out that memory.  They'll get a chance, as the Spartans are the worst team in the conference.  IOWA by 23

MAC

Miami Ohio Redhawks at Kent State Golden Flashes : I don't think we have really seen what the Redhawks can do, so this should be an interesting game.  MIAMI OHIO by 11

Buffalo Bulls at Akron Zips : Buffalo is having a forgettable year.  AKRON by 13

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Central Michigan Chippewas : This will be an interesting game, with many lead changes.  This could be won by the last team to hold the ball.  I think the Chippewas have a little better ball control, so that's where I'll stake my pick.  CENTRAL MICHIGAN by four

Bowling Green Falcons at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets : Well, the good news is that the Falcons aren't likely to lose as badly as they did last week.  The bad news -- they'll still lose.  GEORGIA TECH by 12

Ball State Cardinals at Western Michigan Broncos : The Broncos moved the ball well last week, it's just that Toledo did better.  Ball State won't be a threat.  WESTERN MICHIGAN by 23

Northern Illinois Huskies at Toledo Rockets : The Huskies are struggling, so this will be a breeze.  TOLEDO by 28

Other Games of Interest

Missouri Tigers at Vanderbilt Commodores : Missouri has a nice game ahead of them.  Could a win here propel them into the Top 25?  MISSOURI by 26

Boise State Broncos at Memphis Tigers : The Broncos are not quite as strong as they usually are.  Memphis will have to play well, but they certainly have the talent to win this game.  MEMPHIS by 14

LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels : This should be an interesting SEC matchup.  I like the Revs here, but LSU can always be a dangerous opponent.  OLE MISS by six

South Carolina Gamecocks at Tennessee Volunteers : Tennessee will have a fairly easy time of it.  TENN by 26

West Virginia Mountaineers at TCU Horned Frogs : The Mountaineers won their first conference game last week, but this one won't be so easy.  TCU by 21

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Fresno State Bulldogs : The Warriors have no defense, so the Bulldogs will light it up.  FRESNO STATE by lots


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