We entered the week with five unbeaten teams. We lost one and nearly lost another. We now have four unbeaten teams, and half of them are located in the Big Ten. The Big Ten also has three teams in the Top Five and four in the Top Ten. Now which is the best conference this season?
Top 25 [Last week's rank]
1. OREGON DUCKS (10-0) [1]
2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1) [2]
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1) [3]
4. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1) [5]
5. Texas Longhorns (8-1) [6]
6. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0) [7]
7. Tennessee Volunteers (8-1) [9]
8. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2) [11]
9. Georgia Bulldogs (7-2) [4]
10. BYU Cougars (9-0) [10]
11. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2) [13]
12. Army Black Knights (9-0) [12]
13. Boise State Broncos (9-1) [15]
14. Clemson Tigers (7-2) [14]
15. Miami Hurricanes (9-1) [8]
16. SMU Mustangs (8-1) [16]
17. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-3) [21]
18. Colorado Buffaloes (7-2) [26]
19. Washington State Cougars (8-1) [28]
20. UNLV Running Rebels (7-2) [20]
21. Iowa State Cyclones (7-2) [18]
22. Texas A&M Aggies (7-2) [22]
23. Louisville Cardinals (6-3) [23]
24. Kansas State Wildcats (7-2) [24]
25. Arizona State Sun Devils (7-2) [29]
Dropped off: LSU Tigers [#17], Iowa Hawkeyes [#19], Pitt Panthers [#25]
On the Edge: Navy Midshipmen (7-2), Tulane Green Wave (8-2), Cal Golden Bears (5-4)
Upset Results
The upsets started on Wednesday, when the Western Michigan Broncos fell to Northern Illinois. Three of Friday's games were upsets, including two California teams (Cal and UCLA) winning. Saturday saw another upset in the Big Ten, as Rutgers beat Minnesota, and other Iowa team falling, as the Cyclones lost their second consecutive game. Then the flurry of upsets subsided, and it seemed like the day would finish smoothly. The Virginia Cavaliers had other ideas.
Big Ten Report
Iowa's loss was a surprise, but the rest of the top teams performed as expected. Oregon and Indiana remain undefeated, Ohio State just keeps looking better, and Penn State looks strong. Those are the only four teams with any real chance at the conference championship. Penn State and Oregon have the easiest schedules, and likely to win out. Ohio State faces Indiana, the only tough opponent either team has left. Ohio State looks like they will win. If so, they advance to the conference championship game to face the Ducks again, as they hold the tiebreaker over Penn State.
Playoff Predictions
With three weeks remaining, things are starting to clear up. The number of "at large" slots available to Power 4 teams will depend upon the continued success of some other teams. If Notre Dame wins out (and it appears they will), the one-loss Irish will be in. Remember, they do NOT count as a Group of Five team, since they are Independent, so that is IN ADDITION to the top Group of Five team. If Boise State wins out, which means getting past Oregon State and then Colorado State (easy) or UNLV (highly likely) in the conference championship, they will gain that automatic slot. Now, what about Army? Well, they still have to face Notre Dame and Navy. I don't think they will finish unbeaten, and that would be required to get in. So, two playoff slots go to non-Power 3 teams, leaving six slots for "at large" teams.
Who will those be? First of all, the Big XII is likely to provide only the conference champ. It looks like the game will feature BYU and Colorado. Colorado already has two losses, so the only way they are getting in would be to win the game. If BYU doesn't lose again, a loss would give them two losses. Is that good enough? Let's see.
Who will the ACC provide? Miami and SMU seem poised to win out, although Miami has some vulnerabilities exposed this week, so that's not certain. Clemson still has to face both Pitt and South Carolina, so they will likely have another loss. So the ACC runner-up will have two losses. The ranking of that runner-up would exceed a BYU team losing to Colorado, due to the respective ranks of the ACC Champ and Colorado. So, the Big XII and ACC will provide only THREE teams TOTAL, or only one "at large".
That leaves five "at large" teams. How many come from the Big Ten? As I detailed in the Big Ten Report, the championship game will likely be the rematch between Ohio State and Oregon. The Buckeyes have toughened up since their loss to Oregon, while the Ducks are coasting. I think the Buckeyes could win that rematch, leaving the Big Ten with FOUR one-loss teams. ALL of those should make the playoffs, meaning the Big Ten will provide three "at large" teams. That leaves two from the SEC. Both of the those will have two losses.
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