Sunday, November 17, 2024

NCAA 2024 Week 12 results and Top 25

 Very few upsets this week, so wasn't much movement in the Top 25

Top 25  [Last week's rank]

1.  OREGON DUCKS (11-0) [1]

2.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1) [2]

3.  Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) [3]

4.  Penn State Nittany Lions (9-1) [4]

5.  Texas Longhorns (9-1) [5]

6.  Indiana Hoosiers (10-0) [6]

7.  Georgia Bulldogs (8-2) [9]

8.  Ole Miss Rebels (8-2) [8]

9.  Tennessee Volunteers (8-2) [7]

10. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2) [11]

11. Army Black Knights (9-0) [12]

12. Boise State Broncos (10-1) [13]

13. Clemson Tigers (8-2) [14]

14. Miami Hurricanes  (9-1) [15]

15. SMU Mustangs (9-1) [16]

16. BYU Cougars (9-1) [10]

17. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-3) [17]

18. Colorado Buffaloes (8-2) [18]

19. UNLV Running Rebels (8-2) [20]

20. Texas A&M Aggies (8-2) [22]

21. Iowa State Cyclones (8-2) [21]

22. Tulane Green Wave (9-2) [27]

23. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-2) [25]

24. Memphis Tigers (9-2) [NR]

25. Washington State Cougars (8-2) [19]

Dropped off: Louisville Cardinals [#23], Kansas State Wildcats [#24]

On the Edge: James Madison Dukes (8-2), Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4), Wisconsin Badgers (5-5)

Upset Results

For this point in November, we had surprisingly few.  Tulane beat Navy to jump into the Top 25.  The Cardinal battle had Louisville fans seeing red, as Stanford came back in the fourth quarter to knock them off.  But it was Saturday night where most of the slaughter occurred, as first Washington State fell to lowly New Mexico, and then Kansas knocked off their second Big XII title contender in two weeks by handing BYU their first loss of the season.

Big Ten Report

No real shocking results.  We had many teams taking their last bye week, so we had fewer games.  The biggest surprise was a near loss to Oregon.  The Ducks have only one game remaining, so finishing 12-0 seems nearly a lock.  Ohio State and Penn State continued their dominance, and Indiana had a bye.  Illinois vaulted back to fifth place.  Rutgers has been playing well recently.  If the Illini can prevent an upset this coming week, they should finish with a great ten-win record.

Playoff Predications

With only two more weeks of play, some of the likely conference championship matchups are taking shape, but the playoff teams remain a bit murky.  Unless Army pulls off an upset of Notre Dame, it seems likely that Boise State will be the highest ranked Group of Five champ, advancing to the playoffs along with Notre Dame.  It is very clear that the Big XII will only contribute one team to the playoffs.  BYU's loss opens possibilities for both Arizona State and Iowa State, but each team has a tough opponent remaining.  It seems obvious that the Big XII Championship will feature BYU and Colorado, and only the winner reaches the playoffs.

Two teams from the ACC seem likely.  Despite Clemson's win this week, they still have to face South Carolina, which will be their third loss.  Even a close win against the Gamecocks will not impress the committee, leaving the two championship contenders of SMU and Miami as the playoff representatives.

The Big Ten remains the likely source of four playoff teams.  Unless Indiana upsets Ohio State, the championship game seems likely to feature the Oregon-Ohio State rematch.  Both Indiana and Penn State should finish with only one loss.

In the SEC, Georgia has finished their conference play.  It seems unlikely they will lose either of their two remaining games, which seems to advance Georgia to the playoffs.  It also advances Ole Miss to the SEC Championship, so long as they can win both of their remaining games (a likely scenario).  The winner of the Texas-Texas A&M game will be the other championship team.  If Ole Miss shocks Texas, both of those two-loss teams will be the remaining SEC playoff representatives.  If Texas wins, Ole Miss will miss the playoffs with three losses.  That opens the door for either Tennessee or Alabama, provided both of them win out.  Tennessee beat Alabama, so you would think that gives them the edge, but face-to-face results are not the only factor the committee uses.  Depending upon the results of the Iron Bowl, Alabama could be the third team.  If Auburn plays them close, then Tennessee will likely play in the playoffs.

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