NCAA Preview #1 - Beasts of the East

As fans of my regular column know, I do a preseason prediction of each of the 11 conferences in the Bowl Championship Division. They also know that I do NOT do a preseason Top 25. Let's face it, those rankings are only a columnist's personal preferences - you cannot know how a team will do, due to the number of changes that occur between seasons. I don't start ranking teams until games are played, and then only judge them on their performance, not how they did against what was EXPECTED.

Anyway, on to the start of the predictions. Once again, I will do this geographically, starting with the home of the defending National Champions. That means...

SEC EAST
1. Florida Gators (7-1/11-1 overall) : As much as I distain the arrogance of the Gators and head coach Urban Meyer, they do have the best chance to win this division again. They have a favorable schedule, playing Tennessee and Georgia at home. Tim Tebow is an excellent QB for Urban Meyer's system, and returning the entire starting defense from last season means they won't be coming from behind. In fact, their most difficult game is likely to be a defensive battle -- on October 1oth at LSU.

2. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-3/8-4) : There are several question marks on this squad, as Steve Spurrier looks to improve on a dedicated yet mistake-riddled team. Spurrier has such an excellent eye for talent that he'll find the right people for the right positions, and hopefully they'll have enough experience to reduce the number of penalties and mental mistakes that hurt the Gamecocks last year.

3. Vanderbilt Commodores (5-3/8-4) : A favorable schedule and the return of 18 players from last year's tremendous squads gives high hopes to the Commodores. It's strange to think of Vandy as a threat in the SEC, but the number of struggling or rebuilding teams makes the Commodores a favorite to challenge for a good spot. There's still a gap between them and the Gators, but other squads have to see Vandy as a threat.

4. Tennessee Volunteers (4-4/6-6) : New coach Lane Kiffin has wasted no time in making enemies in the conference, and some of them take out frustrations on the field. He should find the Auburn, Florida, Alabama, and South Carolina games warlike. Depending upon the number of injuries incurred in those games, the Vols could finish strongly or limp to the end of the season. I figure Kiffin will toughen his guys enough to survive, but they might end up 4-8 or 3-9 if they are less prepared.

5. Georgia Bulldogs (3-5/5-7) : The loss of Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno leaves the Bulldogs starved offensively. Their defense isn't terrible, but it's not good enough to compare with Auburn's or LSU's, and the defense can't stop powerhouses like Florida or Tennessee. This is definitely a rebuilding year for the Bulldogs.

6. Kentucky Wildcats (2-6/6-6) : Kentucky's defense helped them win the Liberty Bowl, but I don't think it's good enough to stop the high-powered offenses in the SEC. Their non-conference games were their saving grace last year, and they may again propel them to a bowl game. However, if Louisville beefed up their offense, they may lose that game, and end their successful postseason run.

SEC WEST
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1/10-2) : Alabama has a strong team. Their only Achilles Heel is a rebuilt offensive front line. The only games that will hinge on them are the first and last, against Virginia Tech and Auburn, respectively. Both attack the front line mercilessly, which makes the Tide vulnerable.

2. LSU Tigers (5-3/8-4) : A redisciplined defense and more stable quarterback will fix most of the problems from last year's underachieving team, but they still haven't fully restored themselves to the upper echelons of the conference. Fortunately, this is a down year for the SEC, so the Tigers will finish as one of the better teams.

3. Ole Miss Rebels (4-4/7-5) : The Rebels surprised teams last year, so their opponents will be better prepared. Still, the Rebels have one of the better offenses in the conference, and a returning defense strong enough to make things difficult for opponents. The Rebels will continue to be a strength in the SEC.

4. Auburn Tigers (3-5/5-7) : New coach Gene Chizik is attempting to rebuild the offense, but they still have a long way to go. Defense will once again carry the team, but it won't carry them far enough to return to the top of the division.

5. Arkansas Razorbacks (2-6/4-8) : With a weak quarterback, the Razorbacks will focus on the run. Fortunately, they have a large and talented stable of runners. Unfortunately, a run-oriented offense won't be enough to compete in this conference.

6. Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-7/3-9) : New coach Dan Mullen likes the spread offense, but he's missing experience at key positions: quarterback and wide receiver. They're relying on two freshmen and a sophomore who's played less than 20 plays. The freshmen were top high school players in the state, so there are high hopes, but I'm figuring it'll take a season to break them in.

CHAMPION : Florida over Alabama

ACC Atlantic
1. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-3/7-5) : QB Ryan Skinner is leading the best offense in the division, but a questionable defense makes the Deacons vulnerable. The offense isn't deep in certain positions, so if the offense has to be on the field frequently, the Deacons may peter out late in games.

2. Boston College Eagles (4-4/7-5) : The Eagles have more troubles than a new coach. Last year's starting quarterback isn't recovering well from his injury, stable replacement Dominique Davis was suspended for academic reasons (and Davis has announced plans to transfer to another school), and they don't really have a strong candidate to replace Davis. Worse, the defense that took them to the ACC Championship Game will be without the services of ACC Defensive Player of the Year Mark Herzlich. The Eagles are helped with a favorable opening schedule, so they have some time to get things settled, but it looks to be a tough year for BC.

3. Clemson Tigers (4-4/6-6) : A returning offensive line and trio of talented QBs make the Tigers attractive. A strong returning defense makes them terrors to opponents. However, a lack of skilled receivers makes the Tigers offense move very slowly. That won't help against some of the defenses in this conference.

4. Maryland Terrapins (4-4/6-6) : The inconsistency at QB may not be such a big problem this year, as a lack of talented wide receivers will cause a shift to the running game. The defense looks better, so a running scheme might work for the Terrapins. They have a good schedule, too.

5. Florida State Seminoles (3-5/4-8) : The Seminoles finally have a stable and capable QB, but a weak receiving corps and lack of runners provides little support for their QB. They have some problems on the defensive side of the ball. Worst of all, the recent off-field problems and cheating scandal shows that Coach Bowden is loosing control. Since the Seminoles have a history of giving scholarships to students with athletic ability but little self-discipline, I think this team will collapse.

6. NC State Wolfpack (2-6/4-8) : Both the offense and defense have severe problems to fix. With a quarterback who missed half of spring practice to play baseball, this team lacks cohesion and experience. It'll be a long year for Coach O'Brien and the Wolfpack loyal.

ACC Coastal
1. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-1/10-2) : They return nearly all of last year's starters, and that was a squad that won the Orange Bowl. Without a doubt, this team is one of the toughest in the conference. The only hitch? They play tough Georgia Tech in the enemy's home.

2. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-2/9-3) : They return nearly all of their offense from last year, making them a huge threat again. The defense has to replace most of the front four, but a strong spring practice gives confidence that they can.

3. Miami Hurricanes (5-3/7-5) : Their young team last year has more experience, which makes them more dangerous. Miami still doesn't have the plethora of talent that marks Hurricane squads of yore, but this group should be a force in the conference.

4. North Carolina Tar Heels (3-5/5-7) : The Heels should be able to dig them in, as they return a strong defense from last season. They are strong at quarterback, but lost all three of their top receivers from last year. With holes on their offensive line, a running game seems impractical, so the Heels may struggle early.

5. Virgina Cavaliers (2-6/3-9) : With spotty performance on both sides of the ball plaguing spring practice, Coach Al Groh feels there are plenty of concerns on the team. I agree.

6. Duke Blue Devils (0-8/3-9) : The Blue Devils have improved their passing game, but they still have a long way to go to be competitive in this conference.

CHAMPION: Virginia Tech over Wake Forest

Big East
1. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-2/8-4) : Spring practice showed that the Mountaineers have replaced departing offensive starters very well, but the defense still has a ways to go.

2. South Florida Bulls (5-2/8-4) : The Bulls have some holes on the offensive line, and their defense is down from previous years, but an overall weak conference this year makes them competitors. They may have the best quarterback in the conference, so watch out for the Bulls!

3. Louisville Cardinals (3-4/6-6) : Five different quarterbacks played in spring practice, and none stood out over the others. Coach Kragthorpe has stated he won't state a starter until a week before the opening game. Fortunately all quarterbacks seem capable with the system, and a group of talented receivers will help. The defense needs some work, but things look to be improving from last season's surprisingly pathetic squad.

4. Syracuse Orangemen (3-4/5-7) : A mistake-filled spring practice makes fans concerned, but new coach Doug Marrone liked what he saw. A team that folded in too many games last year, the Orangemen showed grit and determination. They possess a sheer tenacity that might propel them through some games against this thin conference, but Syracuse still has work to do before they can return to the top of the conference.

5. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-5/5-7) : The offensive line returns, but just who they will protect remains a mystery. Spring practice did little to demonstrate who will replace the Knights' departing offensive stars. The defense has holes, too, so Rutgers finds themselves in the midst of a rebuilding year.

6. UConn Huskies (2-5/5-7) : A revamped offense should make the Huskies more unpredictable than last season, but that unpredictability can also hurt the team. Defenses will have to watch for more diversity, but the Huskies lack sufficient offensive experience to effectively do everything well. They also need to replace some key holes on defense, so it won't be a great year in Storrs.

7. Pitt Panthers (2-5/4-8) : With a weak offense and no kicking game emerging from spring practice, this team will suffer. The defense has moments, but it's thin and may suffer from injuries.

8. Cincinnati Bearcats (1-6/2-10) : The defense lost so much talent from last season's Top 25 squad that Coach Brian Kelly moved some OFFENSIVE players to defense. We'll have to see if the gimmick works, but it does thin out the defense from a team that has had injury problems in the past. Things look grim.

Sun Belt
1. Arkansas State Red Wolves (8-0/9-3) : A new nickname might mean new luck for Arkansas State, as they return most of last year's starters. They have the strongest offense in the conference, and their defense is good, too. Only Troy can really threaten them, and the Red Wolves face the Trojans at home.

2. Troy Trojans (7-1/8-4) : Their defense is the toughest in the conference, but a restructured offensive line will take a little time to adjust. Since they face Arkansas State early, I don't think that line will be ready for the Red Wolves.

Florida Atlantic Owls (4-4/4-8) : Losing most of its starting defense leaves the Owls vulnerable, and a 35-point performance by the offense in the spring game demonstrates it. The offense is good, but it's a bit slow. Worse, their bench is small, so injuries could jeopardize the Owls' chances to regain the conference title.

Florida International Golden Panthers (3-5/3-9) : The Panthers defense looked much improved in the spring game. That was good, as the defense was slow last year. Now the offense faces scrutiny, as they appeared confused and disoriented in the spring. They must tighten up if they want to compete in this conference. To make matters worse, they start the season with two tough road streaks. They could start the season 0-7.

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (3-5/3-9) : The defense looked strong, but it appears Coach Rickey Bustle will have trouble replacing their departing offensive stars. When you look the top three scorers on the team, it is hard to regain quickly.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (3-5/4-8) : The team comes in with question marks at quarterback, holes on the offensive line, and a thin defense. To attempt to assist the defense, they are switching to a 3-3-5 to spread the defense and allow more blitzes. The defense is fast, so it might succeed early, but teams will determine schemes to beat it. This team will fade in the stretch.

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (5-3/6-6) : New QB Dwight Dasher lives up to his name, scrambling first and passing late. Coach Rick Stockstill wants to break him of that habit, but watching highlights of Florida QB Tim Tebow won't help. If Dasher will look for the pass, he has excellent tools to catch them. An iffy defense means this team must score, so fans are hoping Stockstill keeps Dasher off the ground.

North Texas Mean Green (2-6/2-10) : The worst defense in the conference over the past two seasons didn't improve much. With the coach's son starting at QB, the offense will go smootly, but just how much patience will Coach Dodge have if son Riley makes mistakes?

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (1-7/2-10) : The Hilltoppers have one of the best recruiting classes in the country. Unfortunately, after a 2-10 season last year, many of those freshmen will be pressed into service, and it might be too soon.