Sunday, August 9, 2009

NFL preview #1 - NFC East and NFC North

It's time for me to take crystal ball in hand and look at the chances of the 32 teams in the National Football League. With the Lombardi Trophy held in the AFC North, that conference and division will be done last, so I'll start with the NFC counterpart, plus my home division.

NFC East
1. New York Giants (13-3, playoff bye) - QB Eli Manning became the highest-paid player in the league, which might put pressure on him. The calm Manning probably won't be too affected, though. The Giants don't seem to need Plaxico Burress too soon, as David Tyree, Steve Smith, and Sinorice Moss provide great speed and hands. Throw in new TE Travis Beckum, and you have a successful pass offense. The running game looks good, too.

Defense is one place you can always count on the Giants' succeeding, and this year doesn't seem any different. Their depth is limited, so injuries could hurt them here, but I figure they have enough strength to capture another NFC East title.

2. Dallas Cowboys (8-8) - The loss of Terrell Owens might actually improve their offense. Now they can use their entire roster of talented receivers (including tight ends) instead of focussing on "Mr. Whiner". An improved offense will help, but their bigger concern was their 20th ranked defense. Unfortunately they didn't seem to do so well in improving that, which leaves Dallas trailing.

3. ashington Redskins (7-9) - The team drafted several players from nearby Maryland. I assume that was an attempt to increase ticket sales, as I don't know how much many of them will help the team. One of the more exciting acquisitions was Missouri QB Chase Daniel, though. Everyone is hoping to see him, but I think Coach Jim Zorn is smarter than that. As a former NFL quarterback, he knows that they play better with some time to adjust from college. Jason Campbell and Todd Collins will likely spend preseason competing for Number One.

They have good receivers, but their bench is inexperienced. If they suffer injuries, they could find themselves in trouble. At least they have some runners available to help carry the team (pun intended), with Clinton Portis, Dominique Dorsey, and Ladell Betts. The offensive line has been rebuilt, so we won't really know until preseason is over whether this group will propel them.

The Redskins did some work to improve their defense this off-season. They have an interesting mix of aging veterans and young guns. Injuries might shake up this squad, but teams may be surprised.

4. Philadelphia Eagles (6-10) - Donovan McNabb may be showing his age. Kevin Kolb is currently rated ahead of AJ Feeley for backup duties, but the rest of preseason may change that. Brian Westbrook is already hurt, so LeSean McCoy takes center stage. Their top two tight ends aren't very experienced, either, so the offense faces some potential problems. The defense appears to have some holes, too, so this team may suffer this year.

NFC North
1. Chicago Bears (10-6, playoffs) - Jay Cutler seems determined to prove my earlier blog wrong. He is working closely with his receivers, especially tight end Greg Olson, and leading team discussions. If he can maintain that relationship, this offense might become potent. The defense remains strong, despite some defections, as new team members are matching the intensity of veterans.

I don't usually watch preseason games, as it's more talk and strategy than action, but I'll be looking forward to Cutler returning to Denver on August 30th. That should be intense! I defy Lovie Smith to get Cutler out of that game before he scores at least three touchdowns against his former team. That might be the best therapy for Cutler, too. If he exacts such revenge against the team and coach that he feels wronged him, he might work even harder to establish a connection with his new team.

2. Minnesota Vikings (8-8) - The team is shy on great receivers, and are relying on either Sage Rosenfels or Tavaris Jackson to throw the ball. Clearly this team is placing the success of their offense squarely on the shoulders of Adrian Peterson. So far he's been able to carry the load, but if the Walter Payton-led years of the Chicago Bears taught us, a team cannot rely on a running back alone. A strong defense helps, but with the Hendersons facing a possible four-game suspension and a weak bench to cover injuries, the defense may not help enough.

3. Green Bay Packers (6-10) - Aaron Rodgers started last season strongly, but then sputtered. So did Favre for the Jets, so the Pack didn't miss him. Besides, much of the Pack's problems cannot be blamed on Rodgers. Once again, injuries slimmed the on-field talent.

They've got a full roster now, but it needs to be trimmed during preseason. Already, though, I have concerns. They don't have a strong tight end on their roster right now. No matter who they keep does not have a stable history of going all 16 weeks, and doesn't seem to be a big playmaker. Donald Driver and Greg Jennings are still their strongest wide receivers, but repeated injuries may have reduced their effectiveness. The Pack did pump up their defense, but its their offense has been wracked with injuries over the past few years.

The Pack has the talent to do well in this division, but given their injury woes I have to take away two or three victories I would expect them to have later in the season, just due to attrition.

4. Detroit Lions (3-13) - Well, they can only go up. They've brought in some new blood, but I hope they don't rely too much on their rookies, especially on the defensive line and at quarterback. As I've previously said, sit Matthew Stafford for at least half the season. As far as the line, they may need those rookies, which means that pass rushing is out, and teams can run against the Lions. Given the runners in this division (Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson, and Ryan Grant), that's not a helpful situation.

1 comment:

  1. I've received a couple of e-mails asking if I'm changing my picks in the NFC North, now that Brett Favre has signed with them. Okay, he's definitely a better QB than either Jackson or Rosenfels, so he will boost the team. He can get the ball to the receivers better. However, that arm means the ball will be coming hot, and I don't know if the receivers Minnesota has can handle that. I think we'll see lots of dropped balls.

    The presence of Favre might ensure a winning season, but I think the Bears are still better positioned.

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