NCAA Preview #2 - Un-Stuck in the Middle

Moving west, we hit the central part of our nation, home of some of the hardest-hitting teams in the country. Let's start with one conference with lots of Top 25 contenders:

Big XII North
1. Kansas Jayhawks (6-2/10-2) - Coach Mark Mangino has built an offensive powerhouse. Since most of them are seniors, this may be their last chance to capture the crown. To do that, they need to improve on defense. An off-season conditioning program shows promise, as they are coming back leaner and faster. The Jayhawks gave up too many long pass plays. A faster defense, and the departure of Michael Crabtree, should help.

2. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-3/8-4) - Bo Pelini did a good job returning the Cornhuskers to their winning ways, but this team isn't thrilled yet. They had some big wins last season, but had some embarrassments, too. They return 13 starters from last year, but a big concern is the linebacking corps, which is 75% redshirt freshmen. This conference has some high-powered offenses, so a strong linebacking corps is crucial. They've got some easy games to start to the season, but the team cannot afford to get overconfident, as they start a tough string of games on October 17th (against Texas Tech).

3. Kansas State Wildcats (3-5/6-6) - Former coach Bill Snyder returns to restore this beleaguered team to prominence. He has some talented returning starters, but Snyder may not use some of them. He doesn't think much of the preceding system, and he's overhauling as much as he can. That might be too much for these guys to handle in one season.

4. Iowa State Cyclones (3-5/6-6) - Their offense showed some spark at the end of the season. Since they return nearly the entire squad, new coach Paul Rhoads hopes they can build on that momentum. The problem for Iowa State, though, as been the other side of the ball. They have had the worst defense in the conference for the past two years. While their returning starters have gained some experience, a new defensive scheme means a learning curve. The Cyclones chance to return to a bowl game after five years may depend upon how quickly they learn.

5. Colorado Buffaloes (3-5/5-7) - The Buffaloes lost nearly half their starters from a 5-7 team. That might be good, but eight of them were on defense. Whoops. The Buffaloes have a great schedule, playing their worst conference rivals at home, but they may not be able to make much with it.

6. Missouri Tigers (2-6/3-9) - This team has lost too much from the division winners from last year. Returning just a total of eight starters from last year, the Tigers will sputter. While their offense lost the marquee names, perhaps their defense will suffer the most. In this conference, and against opening opponent Illinois, that isn't good news.

Big XII South
1. Texas Longhorns (8-0/12-0) - The Longhorns offense may be the biggest threat in the division, with the loss of Michael Crabtree from Tech, but a defensive line with only one returning starter makes them vulnerable to the run. But, who's running in this division? Texas has the best runner of them all. Their schedule helps, as they host Tech, Oklahoma and Kansas and avoid Nebraska. They could go undefeated until their concluding battle against A&M.

2. Oklahoma Sooners (7-1/11-1) - Every single player who could have left school early for the NFL draft remained -- EVERY one. This team is hungry for a National Championship. They certainly have the talent to do it, but they have one tough obstacle - Texas. The Longhorns retained many of their potential NFL draftees, too, and the Red River Showdown is in the Cotton Bowl this year. If they survive that, they still have to face Nebraska and Texas Tech on the road, too.

3. Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-3/8-4) - The Cowboys have a great offense, although their receivers lack depth; only the top two are reliable. The problem lies in their defense. They hired a new defensive coordinator this year, but how quickly can he turn them around? Bill Young's been around the team for years, so he knows what he's working with. That'll help, but it might hurt as well -- he knows his guys a bit TOO well, and will think they can't do certain things.

4. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-5/6-6) - No Graham Harrell, no Michael Crabtree, no chance of a division title.

5. Texas A&M Aggies (3-5/6-6) - Coach Mike Sherman was not impressed with many of his players last year. He's threatening to fill this year's roster with 60% freshmen. I don't that'll work in this hard-biting conference.

6. Baylor Bears (3-5/5-7) - Returning twenty starters from last year's squad, which started showing some offensive quality, could help pull this long-lamenting team out of the cellar.

Champion: Texas over Kansas

Big Ten
1. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-2/10-2) - The Lions are hoping to win a second consecutive conference title for the first time in team history, but it won't be easy. Oh, QB Daryll Clark and RB Evan Royster are back, but the entire wide receiving corps is new. The defense is nasty and tenacious, though, and a nice schedule helps. However, they face a couple of good offenses early in conference play. If that defense slips, they won't be able to come back from behind.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-2/9-3) - Many experts are concerned about Ohio State's defense, as they must rebuild their linebacking corps and line. However, OSU is very good at cultivating defensive players, so I'm not concerned there. Their offense, however, is a concern. QB Terrelle Pryor finds himself lacking experienced receivers and handing off to a new back. This may be a slow offense.

3. Wisconsin Badgers (5-3/8-4) - Both lines are being rebuilt from a squad that collapsed against Florida State. Four straight home games, then a game against pathetic Minnesota, will help this young squad build strength and character. Can they stretch that to a decent close? They're fortunate to not play Penn State, but a road game in Columbus might reverse their fortunes.

4. Illinois Fighting Illini (4-4/7-5) - QB Juice Williams leads a strong offense that could improve on last year's 19th ranking. This team can score some points, but will they stop teams? Last year's defense was poor, and they lost their two best players on that squad. If Illinois hopes to compete, they need to step up their defense.

5. Northwestern Wildcats (4-4/7-5) - The Wildcats return eight defenders from a tough squad that unexpectedly won nine games last season. Unfortunately the offensive line is the only stable part of the offense, and their defense isn't quite the same caliber of Penn State or Ohio State. They don't have to play Ohio State, but road games at Illinois and Iowa don't help their cause.

6. Iowa Hawkeyes (4-4/7-5) - This team struggled on the road last season, and they have a brutal road schedule this year. Quarterback Ricky Stanzi lost his favorite target, and the defense lost its heart, but this team is hoping to build on their four-game (five, counting their bowl game) winning streak that closed the season.

7. Michigan State Spartans (4-4/6-6) - A team historically known for offense, they'll be counting on their defense to propel them this year. The loss of QB Brian Hoyer and runner Javon Ringer makes this a rebuilding year on their offense. This is a conference where defense is more important, but is theirs good enough to compete with the likes of Ohio State and Penn State?

8. Michigan Wolverines (3-5/5-7) - Rich Rodriquez got himself a spread-type quarterback, and can rely heavily on Brandon Minor in the backfield. He still lacks the speed receivers that make the spread offense move fast, and new coordinator Greg Robinson is shaking up the defense. This may not be as bad a year as last season, but Michigan is still at least a year away from challenging the conference.

9. Indiana Hoosiers (2-6/4-8) - An off-season conditioning program will hopefully reduce the number of injuries that plagued this team last year. It's hard to gauge how a healthy Hoosier squad would do, as we haven't seen these guys together on the field in conference play.

10. Purdue Boilermakers (2-6/4-8) - Joe Tiller has retired, and the Boilermakers seem to have lost all life. They're hoping to avoid the injuries that damaged their season last year, but in this hard-hitting conference, I don't think they can count on that.

11. Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-7/2-10) - The Golden Gophers return more starters than any other team, but since they lost their last five games, that may not be a good thing. Both coordinators are new, and that's never a good sign for a college team, where it takes players longer to learn new systems.

MAC East
1. Akron Zips (5-3/8-4) - The Zips return nearly the entire offense that averaged over 30 points a game last season. Their defense was poor, but they've simplified the system so make it easier. A year's experience will also improve the defense.

2. Buffalo Bulls (4-4/6-6) - The Bulls surprised everyone and won the conference, but can they defend their title? They lost four-year starter Drew Willy at QB, and 3/4 of the offensive front is new. The defense should be better, with a focus on pressuring the quarterback instead of stopping passes, but how crucial was their offense to their success last year?

3. Bowling Green Falcons (3-5/4-8) - The Falcons collapsed in the fourth quarter several times last season. They've pushed an off-season conditioning program, but the loss of eight defensive starters won't help their cause. Their offense should be strong, but their defensive problems will cause more fourth quarter losses this year, too.

4. Kent State Golden Flashes (2-6/4-8) - They lose their QB yet retain their running corps and offensive front, so the Golden Flashes switch foci to a running game. Coach Doug Martin hopes that will be enough to win, as his job is on the line. The key will be the defense. A running-based offense cannot come back from large deficits, so they must stop opponents. They didn't do that well last year, and there doesn't seem to be much confidence that they can do it this year.

5. Temple Owls (2-6/3-9) - The Owls break in a new quarterback and shuffle some defensive positions, but they're hopeful that they'll have a decent season. They have a tough start to the season, though, facing difficult opponents until Army on October 17th. Some MAC analysts are predicting good things for Temple this season, so a poor start may deject the team.

6. Ohio Bobcats (2-6/3-9) - Returning 14 players from a poor squad doesn't necessarily sound good, but many of the Bobcats' woes last year was due to injuries. A year's experience and conditioning should make the Bobcats more competitive. Unfortunately they have a tough non-conference schedule, which might deflate their young players.

7. Miami Ohio Redhawks (1-7/1-11) - A young squad that struggled last year and a tough slate of road games makes this a poor year for the Redhawks and new coach Mike Haywood.

MAC West
1. Western Michigan Broncos (7-1/10-2) - The Broncos have high hopes to regain the Western division title. QB Tim Hiller returns for a fifth year, since injury cost him the 2006 season, and he has nearly his entire offense from last season. Hiller is only 25 TD passes away from setting the all-time conference record. He had 36 last season, so excitement is high. Their defense was the problem last season, but they showed improvement at the end of the year. If they can build on that, the Broncos will be a tremendous, and tremendously successful, force in the MAC.

2. Central Michigan Chippewas (6-2/7-5) - QB Dan LeFevour returned for his senior year, so the Chippewas spread offense should run smoothly. Unfortunately they're a one-sided offense, as the backfield is new. The defense is a total mystery. Last year's was totally inconsistent, and their replacements don't seem much better. The Chippewas could win the conference, or end up somewhere in the middle.

3. Eastern Michigan Eagles (4-4/5-7) - New coach Ron English is highly touted for the aggresive defense he created when he was the defensive coordinator at Michigan, but I remember that that same defense gave up over 70 points to Appalachian State and Oregon. Both of those teams employed the spread offense, a popular scheme in the MAC, too. I don't think this team will be really strong, but a favorable schedule helps them.

4. Northern Illinois Huskies (3-5/5-7) - QB Chandler Harnish is showing improvement, and he has some experienced players to support him. Unfortunately, the defense lost some key members, and a tough schedule will make things harder for the Huskies.

5. Ball State Broncos (2-6/5-7) - The Broncos are breaking in a new coach and a new offense, including the entire front offensive line. It looks like it'll take until at least 2010 for Ball State to compete again in this conference.

6. Toledo Rockets (2-6/2-10) - New coach Tim Beckman has toughened the defense with off-season challenges, but the offense is a massive question mark. The Rockets have a tough schedule, too, so this won't be an easy year.

Champion: Western Michigan over Akron

Conference USA East
1. East Carolina Pirates (7-1/9-3) - This potent team returns 18 starters from last year's conference championship team. Skip Holtz has this team believing they can win, and they have the talent to do it.

2. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (6-2/7-5) - Offensively, the Golden Eagles are flying. Defensively, they need to replace their top two linebackers. If they do that quickly, they'll compete. If they start slowly, they may not catch East Carolina.

3. Memphis Tigers (3-5/5-7) - The QB and receivers seem stable, but a rebuild offensive line questions how much time the quarterback has to connect with his receivers. South Florida pointed out plenty of holes in the Tigers' defense, which they hope they've fixed. An easy opening schedule might give them too much confidence, as their second half is a killer.

4. Central Florida Knights (3-5/4-8) - Their offense gained experience last season, as their improvement in late October and November demonstrated. They can move the ball, but stopping opponents will depend upon how quickly the new secondary develops.

5. UAB Blazer (2-6/3-9) - They have the best returning quarterback of any team in the conference, and a strong front defensive line. However, that's about all they have. Success will depend upon the development of their receivers. Fortunately, they start with some weak opponents.

6. Marshall Thundering Herd (2-6/2-10) - The luckless Herd are hopeful this season, as they return key players in key positions. Receivers and linebackers are strong, but they have no prominent quarterback. Worse, they had way too many mental mistakes last year, and there's no indication that they are any more intense.

Conference USA West
1. Houston Cougars (7-1/9-3) - The Cougars have a high-powered offense, perhaps the best in the conference. Their defense lost seven starters from last year, though, so that offense will need every ounce of power to outscore opponents.

2. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (5-3/7-5) - A new quarterback and rebuilt front line creates some concerns on the offense, but the defense is tough. If the offense adjusts quickly, Tulsa can once again compete for the conference title.

3. Tulane Green Wave (4-4/6-6) - Their running game is secure, and the passing game shows promise. What Tulane needs is a defense to balance their offense. They had injury problems last year, and if the offense is on the field too much, the chances for injury increase.

UTEP Miners (4-4/5-7) - The Miners barely missed the postseason last season, but they have a very difficult schedule to overcome this time. They lost nearly half of last season's starters, which doesn't bode well.

SMU Mustangs (3-5/4-8) - Their young team has a year of experience under their belts. The Mustangs look to improve from last year, when they suffered a 1-11 season. They'll improve, but not enough to compete for the division -- yet.

Rice Owls (3-5/3-9) - Rice's defense looks good, but the offense will have to be created with mostly new pieces. I don't think Rice will repeat their success from last season.

Champion: East Carolina over Houston