NCAA Week 11 picks

As I type this, I'm watching Northern Illinois demolish Toledo.  I had already made that pick, but because I fell behind on some work (due to a cold) and didn't get this typed in time, I won't list that one.

Thurs Nov 11
Pitt Panthers at UConn Huskies:  Pitt leads the Big East, with a strong two-game lead.  A victory against the struggling Huskies will not only make them bowl-eligible, but guarantees at least a share of the Big East title.  PITT

East Carolina Pirates at UAB Blazers:  East Carolina now trails Central Florida in the East division.  If they want a chance to play in the conference championship game, they should win as many as they can.  UAB can be tricky, but I think the Pirates should conquer this home territory.  EAST CAROLINA

Fri Nov 12
#2 Boise State Broncos at Idaho Vandals:  Idaho shouldn't give the Broncos any trouble, keeping the team unbeaten.  BOISE STATE

Top 25
#1 Oregon Ducks at Cal Golden Bears:  Don't be so quick to write off Cal; they can be a tough opponent, especially at home!  Oregon has the best offense in the FBS, which gives them the edge.  However, this game isn't as certain as Boise's.  OREGON

San Diego State Aztecs at #3 TCU Horned Frogs:  The Frogs beat Utah to put themselves into excellent BCS busting position.  I don't think anyone is going to knock them off that perch.  TCU

Georgia Bulldogs at #4 Auburn Tigers:  Auburn might be looking ahead to Alabama, but after the Tide's 2nd loss last week, they might not be so worried. AUBURN

Penn State Nittany Lions at #5 Ohio State Buckeyes:  The Lions young players are finally coming on, but getting past Ohio State will require more than they have.  OHIO STATE

#6 Stanford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils:  Stanford is hoping for an Oregon upset so they have a chance to win the Pac-10.  Alternatively, if Oregon doesn't lose, Stanford goes to the Rose Bowl, which would be fine with them.  STANFORD

#7 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Longhorns:  Do you want to know how far Texas has fallen?  Not only am I picking the Cowboys, I'm not giving Texas much of a chance for an upset.  OKLAHOMA STATE

#8 Utah Utes at Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  When this game was scheduled, I'm sure Utah thought it would improve their BCS standing.  Given the Irish's collapse (Army has a better record!), I don't think it will.  UTAH

Kansas Jayhawks at #9 Nebraska Cornhuskers:  Nebraska is on track to win the North division, especially with a win over Missouri to help a tiebreaker.  The rest of the conference wants to prevent Nebraska claiming the title, as they'd that that with them to the Big Ten.  Oklahoma State certainly doesn't want Nebraska to win the North, as the Cowboys are on track to win the South.  That would set up a rematch of a contest earlier this season, where Nebraska embarrassed Oklahoma State.  Actually, maybe the Cowboys want the chance for revenge.  NEBRASKA

#10 Nevada Wolf Pack at #25 Fresno State Bulldogs:  Nevada is vying with Hawaii and Boise State for the WAC title.  They have it tough, as they've already lost to Hawaii and still face Boise after this.  A win here helps them, but they still need help.  This win is the start.  NEVADA

Indiana Hoosiers at #12 Wisconsin Badgers:  Wisconsin is one of four teams competing for the conference title.  They hve tiebreaker advantages over some, but not all, so they want to win out to have a chance.  This is a good start.  WISCONSIN

Louisiana-Monroe Indians at #13 LSU Tigers:  This in-state rivalry will end the way we'd expect, with a Tigers win.  LSU

#21 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #14 Alabama Crimson Tide:  Bama has lost twice in the conference.  They know they can't afford another one.  The Bulldogs are a strong team this season, but are they strong enough to beat the Tide in Tuscaloosa?  I don't think so, but they'll play it close.  ALABAMA

#15 Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats:  Iowa's another of those four teams vying for the title, and they have it harder, as they are the only team who had a non-conference loss.  That puts them behind the other three, so they need to win outright.  That seems unlikely, but Iowa is still pressing hard.  They'll give Northwestern a hard time, and the Wildcats' recent injury woes make them susceptible.  IOWA

#16 Virginia Tech Hokies at North Carolina Tar Heels:  North Carolina has pulled off a couple of upsets this season.  Do they have one more in their system?  I don't think so.  VIRGINIA TECH

Texas Tech Red Raiders at #17 Oklahoma Sooners:  Now here is a possible upset.  While I'll pick the Oklahoma, they've lost the dominance they demonstrated earlier in the season.  Just the situation Tech might exploit.  OKLAHOMA

Kansas State Wildcats at #18 Missouri Tigers:  Missouri has lost two in a row.  Are they headed in the wrong direction?  K-State is the toughest opponent that reamins on their schedule, but they can be tough.  I think Missouri will get themselves back on track, but watch our for the Wildcats!  MISSOURI

UTEP Miners at #19 Arkansas Razorbacks:  Ryan Mallet and the Razorbacks are roaring back after a bumpy mid-season schedule.  They are two games back from division-leading Auburn, the Razorbacks stand a good chance for a prominent bowl game.  ARKANSAS

USC Trojans at #20 Arizona Wildcats:  The Trojans may be having an "off" year, but they are still dangerous.  They gave Oregon three tough quarters.  If they do the same to Arizona, the Wildcats may end up losing.  USC has something to prove since they let Oregon take over the fourth quarter, so I expect them to hassle Arizona. USC

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at #24 Central Florida Golden Knights:  It's the battle of the Gold!  Southern Miss is doing well, but Central Florida leads the division, and haven't allowed themselves to lose to a Conference USA opponent.  They have two easy opponents after this, so they know they basically clinch the division with a win here.  CENTRAL FLORIDA

Big Ten:
Michigan Wolverines at Purdue Boilermakers:  The Wolverines salvaged their sagging Big Ten season with the incredible four overtime win against Illinois last week.  Can they continue the streak against Purdue?  I think so.  MICHIGAN

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Illinois Fighting Illini:  Speaking of my Illini, they proved to have more stamina than I would have expected, and ended up being just a two-point conversion short of keeping that game going.  They won't need overtime to spank the hapless Gophers.  ILLINOIS

Game of the Week:  South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators:  Both teams are former Top 25 teams, and they both lead the sagging SEC East.  This game will likely determine the East division winner, especially since Georgia will likely be knocked off by Auburn.  When if comes to playing for a championship, even if it's a spot for the SEC title, never bet against Florida.  South Carolina is dangerous enough to win this game, but I like Florida's determination.  FLORIDA

Other Games of Interest:
Cincinnati Bearcats at West Virginia Mountaineers:  West Virginia has a losing Big East record, if you can believe that.  They need to get back on track in the conference race, and beating up on the team in last place should be a good start.  WEST VIRGINIA

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack:  Speaking of conference cellar-dwellers, that's the Demon Deacons in the ACC.  Nice easy win for NC State.  NC STATE

Texas A&M Aggies at Baylor Bears:  Baylor has dropped from the Top 25, and they want to get back.  The problem is the Aggies are only a half game back and improving.  The Bears benefited from a favorable schedule and the collapse of traditional powers Texas and Texas Tech.  Baylor has a real challenge on their hands here.  They might win this one, but the Aggies will make it extremely tough.  BAYLOR

Clemson Tigers at Florida State Seminoles:  Florida State leads the Atlantic division, but only by half a game.  They know each game is crucial.  That includes this one.  FLORIDA STATE