NFL Week 12 picks

It's so good to be back!  While I still have a ton of work to do, I couldn't resist blogging about the Thanksgiving games

Thanksgiving Day games:
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions:  The Lions have lost six Thanksgiving Day games in a row.  Anyone want to bet on seven?  The Patriots may not be as dominant as they typically are, but they have won eight games and continue to move the ball with a variety of plays that keeps a defense on their toes.  PATS, 31-23

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys:  The Cowboys have been reinvigorated with Jason Garrett as Head Coach.  Add in the fact that they have won narely all of the past eight Thanksgiving Day games, and I have to gamble on an interesting upset.  I'm helped by the fact that the Saints have stumbled in a couple of games this season, and I like my pick even more.  COWBOYS, 24-23

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets:  The NFL Network will probably get the most one-sided game of the day.  Another reason I'm happy I haven't paid the money for the NFL Network; in this case, I'd prefer to watch the college football game.  JETS, 27-17

Sunday early games:
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns:  QB Jimmy Clausen may be back in action for Carolina, which is good news given the interception frequency of replacement Brian St. Pierre.  Ironically, it looks like Jake Delhomme will be starting for Cleveland against his former team.  Delhomme didn't start out the season well with the Browns, but he understands enough about his former team that this is a game I think he can win.  BROWNS, 23-20

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons:  Ooh, this should be a close game with several lead changes.  Both teams have strong offenses and stingy defenses.  With two teams so closely matched, I normally pick the home team.  With an unbeaten home record this season, I'd have to be crazy to pick against Atlanta.  Okay, call me crazy.  I actually like the Packers' chances here.  They've taken a beating recently in the media, and nothing fires up Aaron Rodgers more than disrespect.  He'll be out to prove something in this game, and beating the team that is being touted as the best in the NFC will do it.  PACK, 23-20

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants:  Eli Manning has been taking a beating in the press recently.  The Giants love him, though, so they'll get themselves together to stuff the Jags.  The Jags like to run the ball, and the Giants have a tough defensive line.  Injuries have slowed QB David Garrard, and the Giants love to blitz.  I think the Giants will slow them just enough to keep the Jags out of the end zone enough times for the Giants kicker to win the game for them.  GIANTS, 26-21

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins:  Favre has slowed and his body is finally giving out on him.  The Redskins have allowed the second most yards of any NFL team this season, so the Vikings will move the ball, but a couple of key turnovers will kill the Vikings.  REDSKINS, 23-17

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills:  Believe it or not, the Bills are on a two-game winning streak!  Leave it to the Steelers defense to kill that streak.  STEELERS, 27-13

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans:  The Titans are the only team in the NFL who has played only one division game at this point.  That means five of their last six games will be division games.  Talk about pressure!  That will get to them after a couple of weeks, but right now they'll be prepared for battle.  The only problem -- who will be battling?  Vince Young has been pulled from his starting job again after a tempermental blow-up.  Now they have to rely on Rusty Smith.  Not a good formula against the Texans.  Fortunately, the Texans have been allowing lots of yards and lots of points, so Rusty has a great game to practice.  I don't think the Texans' defense will know what to expect from him, and their secondary is not fast enough to adjust to some tricks that Jeff Fisher will invent.  TITANS, 27-23

Sunday late games:
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks:  Matt Cassel has the Chiefs on the move again, while Matt Hasselbeck and the Seahawks continue their "up again, down again" season.  The Seahawks' inconsistency gives them the chance to win any week, but I'll stick with the consistency and talent of the Chiefs.  CHIEFS, 24-21

Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders:  The Dolphins are starting to collapse, while the Raiders have shown some flashes of their former brilliance.  Jason Campbell needs to show more consistency, but at least he makes fewer mistakes than his predecessor, JaMarcus Russell.  With the Dolphins suffering injuries and seeming confused, the Raiders defense will be the deciding factor.  RAIDERS, 23-16

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears:  I'd love to see my Bears defeat the Eagles, but I think Michael Vick is just too quick for the Bears to counter.  Add the Eagles' tendency to blitz, and the problems the Bears have had with their offensive line, then the Bears stand no chance.  The score might be close, thanks to a projected defense turnover and great kick return.  I'm not picking either to result in an immediate touchdown, but the short field in each case will allow the Bears ten extra points.  EAGLES, 27-17

St Louis Rams at Denver Broncos:  Denver has been self-destructing for much of this season, but Kyle Orton is still putting up impressive numbers.  Given the fragile Rams defense, I think that'll be enough for Denver to squeak out a victory.  BRONCOS, 23-20

Tampa Bay Bucs at Baltimore Ravens:  The Bucs have been a fierce force on the road this year, but Baltimore's defense is tough.  This game will be close, and close games are often decided by the better defense.  That's Baltimore.  RAVENS, 23-20

Sunday Night - Football Night in America:  San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts:  Last week the Colts lost a game they should have won.  That will make them hungry.  Their receiving corps has been a revolving door of players, mostly due to injuries, but Peyton Manning still finds targets for his passes.  Furthermore, the Colts have been a much stronger team at home than on the road, so I have to like their chances here.  COLTS, 27-24

Monday Night Football:  San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals:  The 49ers have been disappointing this season, but nedw QB Troy Smith is 2-1, a refreshing change from ineffective Alex Smith.  The former Buckeye still likes to run if his first receiving choice is covered, but he's more mobile than Alex and showing more accuracy.  He's revitalized the team, much like Vince Young did for Tennessee last season, so I have to like that mood to continue.  49ERS, 23-20