Welcome back to NFL Football! An abridged preseason may make for some interesting play in the early weeks, but many teams seem ready for the season. I think some coaches needed longer to make good decisions (Rex Grossman starting over John Beck? Ugh!), but the season officially begins tomorrow.
Thursday, Sept 8
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers: The NFL continues its recent tradition of starting the season with the two previous Super Bowl champs. Both of these teams are strong and preserved most of their team. The Saints lost Reggie Bush, but I don't think they'll miss him much. The Saints, if anything, got better due to some great free agency acquisistions. That makes this game interesting. This will be a close contest, as each team pulls out all the stops. I usually favor the home team in these close contests, and I'll do so again. PACKERS, 27-24
Sunday early games:
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears: The Bears are healthy, but the Falcons offense is just too fast for the Bears. Chicago will score some of their own, as the Falcons are still adjusting to a new defensive scheme and squad, but Matty Ice and company will still record the win. FALCONS, 31-21
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: Yesterday's signing of David Gerrard changes the scope of things for KC. Not their immediate future, as Gerrard has to learn a new system, but it shows that the Chiefs have lost faith in Matt Cassel. I don't think Cassel is source of most of their problems, so a change in quarterback won't entirely fix the Chiefs problems. Buffalo will still beat them this week, and the future will depend on other acquisitions and changes the Chiefs do. BILLS, 26-10
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: Both teams are still well behind the Steelers and Ravens in the division, especially on offense. Cleveland has the better offense. The loss of Rob Ryan leading the defense, and the installation of a new defensive scheme, hurts their defense. Still, I think the gap in the teams' respective offenses is larger than the gap in the defenses, allowing Cleveland to scrape by with a win. BROWNS, 17-13
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Bucs: This looks to be the year Detroit gets back on the winning side. The Bucs are still adjusting (they needed a longer preseason!), but the Lions are in top shape right now. Matt Stafford has the Lions offense clicking, and new defensive additions in the past two years has shaped up the defense. The Bucs have a good defense, too, but the offense isn't quite there, giving the Lions a win to open the season. LIONS, 24-16
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: Peyton Manning is out, and Kerry Collins hasn't started a game in two years. I understand the philosophy, as Collins' experience is probably an advantage against Houston, but they should have at least considered playing Curtis Painter. He was steadily improving during the off-season, and he knows the system and the receivers better. It will take Collins time to adjust to the offense, time the Texans will take to score a win against their division rival. TEXANS, 20-10
Philadelphia Eagles at St Louis Rams: Dream Team the Eagles ain't, but the Rams are pretty far from that description as well. The Eagles offense is working, which is more than can be said for St Louis. EAGLES, 34-6
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: These two always play each other tough. While both teams have good offenses, this will be a defensive showdown. I'd like to favor Pittsburgh, but the Ravens proved during preseason that they have some new surprises, so I'll give them an edge in this meeting. Pittsburgh should win in their next meeting, though. RAVENS, 20-17
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: The loss of David Gerrard makes this a more interesting pick. I had no problem picking Jacksonville when Gerrard would be leading the team, but Luke McCown was sporadic during preseason. Hasselbeck is definitely the better player, and has the better wide receiver targets, but Jacksonville has been primarily a running team the past few years, especially since the acquisition of Maurice Jones-Drew. I think this game will be close, and the passing magic of Matt Hasselbeck will engineer the winning touchdown. TITANS, 20-17
Sunday late games:
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals: Both teams start with new quarterbacks, but Arizona has the experience in Kevin Kolb. Cam Newton showed ability during preseason, but he is still too prone to run to get out of trouble. In preseason, when teams are trying not to get players hurt, he was allowed to get away with it. Come regular season, he'll find that more difficult. Kolb can scramble, but he has the better field sense to keep passing an option. CARDINALS, 16-10
Minnesota Vikings at San Diego Chargers: Donovan McNabb is still loosening up and still learning the Vikings system, while the Chargers are pumped, primed, and ready. This one is the easiest pick of all. CHARGERS, 31-9
New York Giants at Washington Redskins: I don't care that Rex Grossman looked good in preseason; he could look good in preseason when he played in Chicago. It's the pressure of the actual game that causes him to force plays, and that's when he makes his mistakes. Making those mistakes against a defense like the Giants is just asking to give the game away, which he will. The defense might do better moving the ball than the offense will! GIANTS, 17-6
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: Here is a matchup of two struggling quarterbacks: Tavaris Jackson for the Seahawks and Alex Smith for the 49ers. At least Smith has the advantage of knowing the system. The Seahawks surprised New Orleans in the playoffs, but they had no business playing in the postseason. They underachieved during the season, and I don't see them pushing themselves hard this season. On the other hand, Jim Harbaugh has motivated HIS underachieving team; look for the 49ers to play above themselves. 49ERS, 16-10
Sunday night game: Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets: The Cowboys have been inconsistent in the preseason, sometimes looking sharp and sometimes looking confused. No defense can confuse a team more than the Jets, so look for Dallas to struggle here. JETS, 24-13
Monday, Sept 12
We have two games on Monday to start the season, a new practice which I'm not sure I like (I have an early class on Tuesday!). However, it doubles the pleasure of NFL fans, who get twice as many nationally televised games.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: Tom Brady and company are healthy and ready for another postseason run. Miami should improve with improvement from Henne, but we don't know if Reggie Bush can handle full-time running duties. The Dolphins' defense also has some question marks, which paves the way for a Patriots win. These games are often high-scoring, but I think Miami's offense is still gelling. PATS, 34-20
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: Denver is a team in disarray, with bad feelings and issues with new coach John Fox. The defense improved, but they had no place to go but up. Also, the Raiders play very well on Monday Night. So, of course, my pick is... Denver. Huh? Simply put, the AFC West teams seem to know how to get under the Raiders' skin, and the Raiders play emotionally. If they get mad or flustered, they made costly mistakes. That will be the difference in the game. BRONCOS, 27-23
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