NFL 2011 - AFC preview

It's been an interesting preseason, but at least we had one.  There were points during the off-season that we thought a clash of egos would prevent a timely start to the season.  Perhaps the tenth anniversary of 9/11, with games in both DC and NYC, gave them added incentive.  Whatever the reason, the shortened offseason had caused some interesting shifts in some teams, while others preserved their rosters.

AFC East
1.  New York Jets (13-3, 6-0 against divisional opponents; 1st round playoff bye):  A favorable schedule makes them a top contender for the AFC crown.  They've made two consecutive AFC title games, but stumbled at the finish line.  They hope the addition of Plaxico Burress will give them that added boost.  He has been slow to get back to form, but he seems heading in that direction.
  
They need Plaxico to return to form.  Mark Sanchez is a capable QB, but he will never be one of the top QBs in the league.  He needs a strong roster to support him, which he does.  This could be the best year of Rex Ryan's tenure.

2.  New England Patriots (10-6, 4-2; playoffs):  Chad Ochocinco is, so far, proving a match for QB Tom Brady.  The running game is strong with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Kevin Faulk.  The defense was bolstered in the offseason, but the loss of Brandon Merriweather will hurt the secondary.  This team also has a problem with getting careless in games.  If they can remain focused, they can compete for the conference title.

3.  Miami Dolphins (8-8, 1-5):  Reggie Bush has been giving full-time running back duties, something he's never done since his junior year at USC.  Can he manage that?  The strong offensive line helps, but he still needs to stay in shape to last 75-80% of offensive snaps for 16 weeks.  I question his durability.
  
The running game isn't the only source of concern with Miami.  The defensive line has some holes, and the secondary is thin.  This makes them susceptible to good running teams, and injuries might make them susceptible to the passing game.  They will likely get worse as the season progresses.

4.  Buffalo Bills (6-10, 1-5): Quarterback Ryan Fitzgerald looks good, but he has few talented receivers.  A limited number of targets means good defenses will cover them.  When that happens, the Bills have some decent runners.  The problem with all of these is the offensive line.  The line is weak, which means Fitzgerald won't have much time to look for alternative receivers, and runners will not be able to gain many yards per carry.  In addition, the defense needs some support, too.  The fans have high hopes, but this won't be an excellent year for Buffalo.

AFC North
1.  Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3, 5-1; 1st round bye):  The Steelers have a nice schedule.  This team wants to return to the Super Bowl and win it this time, and they might have the chance to do that.  They didn't lose much talent in this off-season, so the chance of reaching the Super Bowl is good.  The Steelers have had injury problems, and they are likely to be worse this year as many of their talented players are getting old, but the Steelers have a deep enough roster to overcome injuries.  The talent of their backups was certainly demonstrated last season, when the team went 3-1 during Big Ben's four-game suspension.

2.  Baltimore Ravens (13-3, 5-1; playoffs):  They have some new receivers this year, but they're good.  Their biggest problem lies in the tight end position, where they lost Todd Heap.  Their receiving corps is also somewhat thin, so injuries could slow their offense.  Like Pittsburgh, their best defenders are getting old, but they don't quite have the depth on defense that the Steelers do.

3.  Cleveland Browns (6-10, 1-5):  Colt McCoy leads a thin receiving corps.  They have a strong running back in Peyton Hillis, but not much else.  Any injuries stop the offense.  Their young defense will learn the ropes, but it will take time.  In this division, it'll also be a tough education.  Worst, the schedule to close the season is terrible.

4.  Cincinnati Bengals (4-12, 1-5):  Andy Dalton takes over under center as Carson Palmer abandons the team as a final act of defiance regarding the agreement that ended the work stoppage.  Principles and ideals are fine, but I don't think his teammates think much of his principles now.  Dalton was okay during preseason, but he still needs work.  With the release of Cedric Benson, the running game is now fractured.  Several new receivers puts the final negative on the offense.  The defense has some good spots, but there are enough holes that they won't win without an offense.

AFC South
1.  Indianapolis Colts (9-7, 5-1):  Kerry Collins is likely to play much of the first two games as Peyton's neck keeps him out.  The Colts have a deep roster of receivers, as they kept many of the ones they had to bring in last year when injuries devastated their receiving corps.  Now they have to deal with giving each receiver enough catches to soothe their egos.  The defense, which was their weak point last season, was bolstered by free agency, gaining Tommie Harris and Jamaal Anderson.

2.  Houston Texans (9-7, 3-3):  This team is talented but underachieving.  This team needs to gain consistency, especially against division opponents.  They never seem to have both squads working at the same time.  Prior to last year, the defense led this team.  Last year the offense came on, but the defense fell.  If both can play well this year, they could win the division.

3.  Tennessee Titans (6-10, 2-4):  The Titans have quite a favorable schedule.  Matt Hasselbeck takes over as quarterback until Jake Locker is ready.  Hasselbeck has to learn an entirely new offensive scheme.  He's experienced enough that he will adjust, but it might take some time.  More importantly is the timing between his receivers and him.

4.  Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11, 2-4):  This is a very young and inexperienced receiving corps.  The five starters achieved a total of only 1200 yards and five touchdowns last year.  They have a good offensive backfield and a strong defense, but that won't be sufficient to reach the playoffs.

AFC West
1.  San Diego Chargers (11-5, 6-0):  The Chargers lost little on offense during the off-season, so this will be a high-scoring bunch.  Their defense improved with the acquisitions of Bob Sanders and Takeo Spikes, so this will be a dangerous team.

2.  Oakland Raiders (5-11, 3-3):  The Raiders have a good offense, so we'll hope they're smart enough to park Terrell Pryor on the bench.  Where they SHOULD have spent their supplemental draft pick was on defense.  That squad lost some talent during the off-season, and the best players remaining are aging.  Injuries will severely cripple the defense.

3.  Denver Broncos (4-12, 2-4):  Tim Tebow is the Number 3 quarterback, and he isn't happy about it.  He'd be better off sitting down, shutting up, and watching Kyle Orton run the offense.  Tebow got used to a plethora of talent when he was at Florida.  Denver doesn't have as much, as they have a thin rank of talented receivers.  The running game is suffering, too, which is ironic from the team that had the longest stretch of 1000-yard rushers in the league only three years ago.

4.  Kansas City Chiefs (2-14, 1-5):  While a poor preseason doesn't always predict a poor regular season, I think it does in this case.  The defense is weak, the receiving corps is thin, and Matt Cassel has few targets other than Dwayne Bowe.  As has been shown in all of their preseason games, defenses can cover Bowe.