NCAA 2011 - Week 1 Review and Week 2 picks

What a crazy opening weekend!  In nearly thirty years of reporting on college football, I've never seen so many weather-delayed games in one weekend.

As I stated last week, I will not be producing a Top 25 until after next week's games, so I'll begin my recap with analyzing how the major conferences performed over the weekend.  I'll start with my home conference:

Big Ten: The classic conference had a strong opening weekend.  Of course, it helped that many of the teams played patsy opponents.  Ten of the twelve teams won their games.  Minnesota lost, but they played USC tough, and lost by only two points.  It may have taken their defense a while to focus on WR Robert Woods, but once they started covering him, his yardage dropped significantly.  We also discovered that Matt Barkley doesn't really trust any other targets than Woods, which exposes a weakness in the Trojans' offense.  Purdue struggled in their victory, but that can be excused considering they were playing with their third-string quarterback, due to injuries to their first two.  That does mean Purdue will have troubles until their starter heals.

Ohio State demonstrated how deep their roster is, as the loss of EIGHT players (four suspended for five games, two suspended for two games due to improper $300 benefits, and two academically ineligible - and how can that happen so soon in the season?) didn't stop them from demolishing Akron.  Michigan's game was less than 3/4 the normal length and they still beat MAC contender Western Michigan by 24 points; a great beginning for Brady Hoke.  It took a little while for Wisconsin's and Illinois' offenses to wake up, but then they consistently drove down the field.

Pac-12:  Not as good a start for the newly expanded conference.  Their newcomers split their games - Colorado did ok in their loss to Hawaii but Utah's offense seemed anemic, even in victory.  I already mentioned that USC seems to have offensive problems of their own.  On the other hand, both UCLA and Washington State had strong offenses.  Stanford did, too, but that was expected. 

Cal did great and the two Arizona teams did okay, but Washington struggled against a FCS team.  Oregon made too many mistakes to look like a national title contender, and Oregon State was defeated by their FCS opponent.

Big XII:  Recordwise, it seemed a perfect weekend for the Big XII.  However, some of the victories were squeakers against weak opponents, causing concern for some coaches.  Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M all seem solid.  Baylor's offense exploded, enabling them to upset BCS contender TCU.  Both Kansas and Oklahoma State had porous defenses this week, while both Missouri and Kansas State struggled to score points against FCS opponents.  Iowa State just seemed poor on all sides of the ball.

SEC:  This conference only suffered two losses, but again there were concerns with winning teams.  Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt all performed well in their opening weekends, although four interceptions by the Tide's two quarterbacks is cause for concern.  The defense prevented Kent State from capitalizing, but they need to cut those out before conference play, or Alabama stands no chance of winning their division.

LSU was strong and Mississippi State is a force (okay, I admit I may have misjudged them).  Both South Carolina and Auburn need to work on their defense (Auburn needs to work on their defense?  My, how unusual!) while Kentucky and Ole Miss have problems on offense.  Georgia started well, but they seemed to run out of gas early.

Let's look at the upsets and near upsets.  It seemed we might be in for an upset-filled weekend when the first upset happened on Friday night, but Saturday calmed.  A few teams squeaked by, those, and many of those against FCS opponents.  Kansas State's offense could only muster ten points against Eastern Kentucky, winning by a mere field goal.  Maybe they need to find even a weaker team to start their season.  Washington let in-state rival Eastern Washington score 27 points, and also won by just a field goal.  Wyoming also squeaked by with a field goal victory after spotting Weber State 32 points (geez, where was the defense on THAT team!).  Little Stony Brook sent UTEP into overtime before the Miners could put the game away.

One FCS team did successfully pull off an upset, and it was in classic overtime style.  Sacramento State kept pace with the offensive anemic Oregon State Beavers, and the two teams entered overtime tied at 21.  The Beavers won the toss, and scored a touchdown on their possession.  Sacramento went next, and scored a touchdown on their possession. Down by an extra point, they chose to go for two instead of playing another overtime period.  Their conversion was successful, and Sacramento beat the Beavers on the road.

Two other games were last minutes thrillers.  The Utah State Aggies had engineered a perfect upset against the Auburn Tigers, and led by ten points in the final minute and a half.  Then came the last minute heroics the SEC is known for.  The Tigers scored a touchdown, successfully kicked an on-side kick, and ran the ball for another touchdown.  Two touchdowns in sixty-three minutes, and the Tigers escaped victorious, but concerned.  The other last minute squeaker DID end in an upset, and it was our first one of the 2011 season.  TCU and Baylor exchanged scores all night, as Baylor QB Robert Griffin III racked up 347 yards and five touchdowns.  Baylor led by two late in the fourth, until TCU scored their final touchdown to take a 50-45 lead.  Things looked bleak, but TCU gave Baylor too much time (even though TCU didn't think so).  A good kickoff return put Baylor in good field position, and they needed less than 45 seconds to set up for the winning field goal.

Week 2 picks
Okay, time to look at the games for Week 2.  We still have teams playing FCS opponents (Eastern Michigan plays their SECOND), but we have enough cross-conference competition to establish a Top 25 when Sunday dawns.

Thursday, Sept 8
Arizona Wildcats at Oklahoma State Cowboys:  The Cowboys may have some concerns about their defense, but with their offense, those problems don't have to fixed quickly.  OKLAHOMA STATE

Friday, Sept 9
Missouri Tigers at Arizona State Sun Devils:  The Tigers offense sputtered last week.  If they can't get it fired up quickly, they'll find themselves in a hole against an effective Sun Devil offense.  ARIZONA STATE

Saturday, Sept 10:
Big Ten
Oregon State Beavers at Wisconsin Badgers:  The Beavers go 0-2 as the Badgers just grind up the turf and the clock.  Nothing will frustrate the Beavers more than a ball-hogging running game and quick defense.  WISCONSIN

Florida Atlantic Owls at Michigan State Spartans:  The Spartans will take apart the Owls as they go 2-0, admittedly against easy prey.  MICHIGAN STATE

Toledo Rockets at Ohio State Buckeyes:  Eight players still sit on the bench for this game, but I'm not as concerned about that as I was a week ago.  Toledo is a good team, but the Buekeyes should still win, although probably not as easily as last week.  OHIO STATE

Iowa Hawkeyes at Iowa State Cyclones:  This in-state rivalry has often given problems to the Hawkeyes, but the Cyclones stink this season.  IOWA

South Dakota State at Illinois Fighting Illini:  Another patsy for the Illini, but I don't mind.  They'll struggle when conference play starts, so it's nice to see them win now.  ILLINOIS

Alabama Crimson Tide at Penn State Nittany Lions:  Look out, but I'm declaring an upset!  The new Tide quarterbacks don't have good downfield vision.  That lack resulted in four interceptions last week.  Even if they reduce that for this game, the Lions will make them pay.  I predict at least one pick six, which might be the difference in the ball game.  PENN STATE

Eastern Illinois at Northwestern Wildcats:  Boston College played the Wildcats close last week, but Eastern Illinois won't give them too much trouble.  NORTHWESTERN

New Mexico State Aggies at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  After holding USC to only 19 points, the Gophers defense might shut out the Aggies, although I figure they'll bring in second team and allow them one score.  MINNESOTA

Purdue Boilermakers at Rice Owls:  Purdue has to be happy they start the season with easy teams while their quarterbacks heal.  PURDUE

Fresno State Bulldogs at Nebraska Cornhuskers:  The Bulldogs were predicted to do well, but a loss to Cal last week puts their record in jeopardy.  A loss here removes "BCS Buster" from their banners this season.  NEBRASKA

Virginia Cavaliers at Indiana Hoosiers:  The Hoosiers lost to Ball State on the road.  An impressive victory for Virginia last week convinces me that they have some power this season, perhaps more than Indiana can handle.  VIRGINIA

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan Wolverines:  You know, I figured Michigan would lose this game when I compiled my preseason predictions.  After the two teams' respective showings last week, though, I've changed my mind.  Notre Dame couldn't handle a rebuilt South Florida team at home; going on the road to the Big House against a revitalized Wolverine team won't be easy.  MICHIGAN in an upset

GAME OF THE WEEK:  Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers:  The Bulldogs are for real, while the Tigers defense doesn't seem to be.  I thought this would be an easy game for the defending National Champs, but now I think the "easy" label goes to the other team.  Auburn is capable of great comebacks (just ask Utah State!), but the Bulldogs are a bit tougher on defense than the Aggies.  MISSISSIPPI STATE

The rest:
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at North Carolina Tar Heels:  North Carolina is making a bid for my first Top 25.  A strong win here will help.  NORTH CAROLINA

Norfolk State at West Virginia Mountaineers:  Easy victory against a FCS also-ran.  WEST VIRGINIA

Nevada Wolf Pack at Oregon Ducks:  The Ducks need an impressive win to wash away the stink of last week's performance.  I think they'll win, but Nevada might make it tough.  OREGON

Stanford Cardinal at Duke Blue Devils:  As expected, Duke lost to their FCS opponent (happens most years).  This will be another easy victory for Stanford and their new coach.  STANFORD

Virginia Tech Hokies at East Carolina Pirates:  South Carolina proved that the Pirates' defense is weak this year, so Beamer Ball (which has been extended another three years) will run amok.  VIRGINIA TECH

TCU Horned Frogs at Air Force Falcons:  TCU has to erase the emotional upset suffered at Waco last week.  Air Force let South Dakota score way too much last week, so a porous defense is exactly the opponent TCU wants this week.  TCU

Hawaii Warriors at Washington Huskies:  I usually pick Hawaii to lose when they leave the islands, but the Huskies' pathetic showing against Eastern Washington exposes weaknesses that the Warriors might be able to exploit.  HAWAII

South Carolina Gamecocks at Georgia Bulldogs:  This was a contender for Game of the Week.  The Bulldogs showed promise against Boise State last week, but they petered out.  The Gamecocks keep fighting until the final gun, which should give them the edge.  SOUTH CAROLINA

Charleston Southern at Florida State Seminoles:  Another patsy, another easy victory.  FLORIDA STATE

New Mexico Lobos at Arkansas Razorbacks:  Arkansas continues its battle for division supremacy.  ARKANSAS

UAB Blazers at Florida Gators:  Maybe Florida won't have such a down year after all, given their performance last week.  Getting past tricky UAB will be a true measure.  FLORIDA

Houston Cougars at North Texas Mean Green:  North Texas was demolished by Florida International, and now the Cougars come to town.  What a tough start to the season!  HOUSTON

BYU Cougars at Texas Longhorns:  In my preseason compilation, I thought this might be a BYU victory.  They still might pull it out, but based upon BYU's lackluster performance last week and Texas' awesome victory, I have to go the other way.  TEXAS

Utah Utes at USC Trojans:  The Utes will exploit USC's exposed weaknesses on offense.  Furthermore, the Utes have a better offense than Minnesota.  This won't be a close victory for the Trojans; in fact, it won't be a victory for them AT ALL.  UTAH

Northwestern State at LSU Tigers:  The Tigers get an easy game to relax from the Ducks' game, although I'm not sure they needed it.  LSU