NFL 2012 - AFC preview

Preseason pointed out some interesting concerns, especially for the AFC East.  No other time in history have three teams in the same division gone winless during preseason.  The Jets scored only one touchdown in four games.  That indicates some serious flaws on offense.  I start with that division, so I'll discuss it right away.

AFC East
1. New England Patriots (6-0 in division/13-3 overall; #1 playoff seed): The Pats should coast through the division.  That's due to two things: one, a slight improvement in their high-powered offense with the acquisition of speedy Brandon Lloyd, and two, the decrease in ability among the other three teams.  This will likely be the first division title confirmed.
2.  New York Jets (3-3/8-8): The Jets will miss the playoffs again, and the offense will be the biggest reason.  The offense is in shambles.  They aren't squabbling like last season, but they can't get themselves on track.  The mix of quarterbacks is not working, since Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow have such different styles.  The starting offense has to change strategy depending upon who is the quarterback.  Truthfully, the best QB in preseason was Glenn McElroy.  Who knows?  If the offense sputters too badly during the season, we might see him play.
3.  Buffalo Bills (2-4/7-9): A thin offensive line hurts the running game, but the passing game isn't in much better shape.  They lack depth at the wide receiver position; the team hasn't even announced a backup on the left side to spell Steve Johnson.  Free agent acquisition Mario Williams is also being asked to shoulder the burden on the left side of the defensive line.  The lack of depth will hurt this team even without injuries.
4.  Miami Dolphins (1-5/4-12): Problems with the Jets and Bills should have opened the door for Miami, but they are rebuilding themselves.  They have overhauled nearly their entire coaching staff, which means the team has to get used to new schemes and practices.  It doesn't help that most of their starting passing game members are inexperienced, too, as rookie Ryan Tannehill beat out Matt Moore for the job and Chad Johnson was dismissed from the team.  The running game has a chance, with a strong line to help punch holes, but it will go only as far as Reggie Bush can take them. 

AFC North
1.  Cincinnati Bengals (5-1/13-3; #2 seed): Yes, you saw that right.  A changing of the guard occurs in the AFC North as Cincy builds upon last year's success.  Innovative offensive coordinator Jay Gruden continues to invent new plays, and Andy Dalton continues to find ways to implement them.  I saw Gruden's affective when he coached the Arena Football Orlando Predators.  The Bengals have a favorable schedule this season, and they'll transform that into a first round playoff bye.
2.  Baltimore Ravens (3-3/11-5; wildcard): Alabama rookie Courtney Upshaw replaces injured Terrell Suggs on the defensive line.  I think he is up to the challenge.  With Jacoby Jones playing in the third WR slot, this team has powerful weapons for QB Joe Flacco.
3.  Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2/9-7): The injury to Rashad Mendenhall limits their running game.  I'm not sure Pittsburgh knows how to run a pass-oriented offense.  That option looks shaky thanks to Hines Ward's retirement and Mike Wallace's dissatisfaction.  New offensive coordinator Todd Haley likes a quick-strike offense, but are these guys up to the task?
4.  Cleveland Browns (0-6/4-12):  There are brighter seasons in the Browns' future, but the present will be a bit bleak.  Lots of rookies start on this team, more than QB Brandon Wheeden and RB Trent Richardson.  This team will start slowly, but they'll get better as the season progresses.

AFC South
1.  Houston Texans (5-1/11-5):  Many national analysts are predicting that the Texans could go all the way to the Super Bowl.  It's possible, but I think they are still one year away from that.  This is the year QB Matt Schaub has to prove himself.  He got Houston to the playoffs last year, but then sat as TJ Yates completed the season and engineered a powerful playoff victory.  With only one year left on his contract, and Yates having shown his ability, Schaub will be under pressure to live up to, and even surpass, last year's accomplishments.  How he responds to that pressure can shape his future, and the Texans' season.  The defense got assistance from Illinois' Whitney Mercilus, so Texans fans' expectations are even higher.
2.  Indianapolis Colts (4-2/10-6; wildcard): Many national analysts expect the Colts' revival to take at least another year.  However, a favorable schedule and a truly amazing preseason performance by Luck and his new slate of receivers, many of them different than those Peyton had, shows that the Colts should continue to excel.  Many people say preseason is not a true measure of how a player will do, but Luck played with the starting offense, and faced opponents' starting defenses.  He has proven that he can do better than Peyton's rookie year.  He may not match Peyton's pre-injury performances, but Luck is still a rookie.
3.  Tennessee Titans (2-4/6-10): Steve Hutchinson joins an offensive line that allowed the second fewest sacks last season.  That line is protecting Jake Locker now, who won the starting position.  The offensive line might be the best thing about the Titans, as the defense needs work and the passing game will suffer during the six-game suspension of WR Kenny Britt.
4.  Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5/3-13): The Jags were already staring at a tough season, with a tough early schedule.  Maurice Jones-Drew's holdout, and a failure to renegotiate his contract, causes a rift that might show up on the field.  Just how hard will he run, as he may be trying to avoid getting hurt.  This might further hamper the development of Blaine Gabbert, who is not adjusting to professional style football as quickly as the Jags hoped.

AFC West
1.  San Diego Chargers (4-2/9-7): Coach Norv Turner is hoping that simplifying the defense will make them better, and new defensive coordinator John Pagano's defensive scheme is certainly simple.  That doesn't mean it is easy to figure out, but Pagano is focusing on watching players, not predicting schemes.  Hopefully that will slow opposing offenses, allowing the Chargers offense a better chance to carry the game.  The running game will suffer while Ronnie Brown covers for an injured Ryan Matthews, so Rivers and company will again rack up plenty of yards.
2.  Denver Broncos (4-2/8-8): An already sturdy defense gets a boost with the addition of Tracy Porter.  Peyton Manning brought a couple of WRs with him, so he's comfortable with some of the receivers, but the Broncos don't have those guys in the starting lineup.  As preseason showed, Peyton still needs to work out the timing with some of his new targets.  This team will improve as the season progresses, but they won't make the playoffs.
3.  Kansas City Chiefs (2-4/7-9): The Chiefs have boosted their running game with free agency acquisition Peyton Hillis, but they have serious quarterback problems.  Matt Cassel cannot stay healthy, and backup Brady Quinn is not talented enough.  Third stringer Ricky Stanzi is too inexperienced to survive a division with Oakland and San Diego, so this team will only succeed so long as Cassel remains upright.
4.  Oakland Raiders (2-4/6-10): Here's another team with QB problems.  Carson Palmer has not looked good in preseason, Leinhart hasn't been impressive since college, and Terrelle Pryor lacks the experience.  Once again, this team will elan on RB Darren McFadden.