NCAA 2013 Preview Part II - Football Beats in the Heartland

There were more teams to analyze in this region than any other, thanks to Conference USA picking up teams from the WAC and Sun Belt.  When the Big Ten expands next year, there will be even more.  We'll start with my home conference - the Big Ten

Big Ten Leaders
1.   Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0 conference / 12-0 overall) : The likely team to face Alabama in the National Championship Game, the Buckeyes get to amass their second consecutive unbeaten season.  Urban Meyer may have had a revelation last season -- he can still win even if he doesn't get so excited.  Since the team was on probation, he was more relaxed, and the Buckeyes still soared in his rookie season.  They need to replace some defensive players, but the Buckeyes always have a large slate of those.  They get their toughest opponents at home until they have to travel to the Big House to close the season against Michigan.

2.  Wisconsin Badgers (7-1/10-2) : The offense still misses Russell Wilson, and now they are missing ex-Coach Bielema and Monte Ball.  This team always has a slate of talented running backs, so Ball can be replaced.  Replacing some key defensive losses will be tougher.  Still, except for a trip to Columbus, they play their toughest foes at home.

3.  Penn State Nittany Lions (4-4/8-4) : Linebacker U is always well-stocked on defense, but the loss of QB Matt McGloin leaves them listless.  They played with a lot of heart last season, as those players who remained had something to prove.  Without that incentive, this year will be more pedestrian.

4.  Illinois Fighting Illini (2-6/5-7) : QB Nathan Scheelhaase must step up this season, or Ryan O'Toole will find himself permanently behind center.  O'Toole has talent, but he isn't given enough time to develop.  He might get it this year.  A poor running game puts all the pressure on the quarterback and receivers, so they need a reliable field general.  The defense looks a little better this season, but the offense needs to help them by not turning the ball over so much.

5.  Indiana Hoosiers (2-6/4-8) : Junior QB Cameron Coffman has a strong arm and a deep threat in WR Cody Latimer.  The Hoosiers don't have much of a running game, so the offensive line has to protect Coffman better.  Speaking of better, the defense has improved, but they sucked last season, so it wouldn't take much improvement.

6.  Purdue Boilermakers (0-8/1-11) : This team has TWO good quarterbacks, but a limited number of speedy and reliable receivers.  With a weak running game and fractured offensive line, Purdue will struggle to score.  The defense is better, but turnovers and defensive scores are not their forte.

Big Ten Legends
1.  Michigan State Spartans (7-1/11-1)  QB Andrew Maxwell returns with a strong slate of receivers, but the departure of RB Le'Veon Bell leaves a weak backfield.  They return a strong defense which is focused on causing turnovers, as they already allow one of the lowest yards-per-down averages.

2.  Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-2/10-2) : The Huskers have a great early schedule.  They should be unbeaten when they meet Northwestern.  That streak may give them confidence that they'll need, as QB Taylor Martinez needs better weapons to help him in the passing game.  They do have a strong offensive line and a great backfield, and an improved defense makes them a threat in the division.

3.  Michigan Wolverines (4-4/8-4) : Devin Gardner is very capable of replacing Denard Robinson, so the passing game may not lose much.  Gardner isn't quite as mobile as Robinson, and by starting freshman RB Derrick Green, this team will have to rely on the passing game.  The defense has lost some power, too, which hurts them.

4.  Northwestern Wildcats (4-4/7-5) : An improved passing game gives the Wildcats more offensive balance, and they have the best special teams unit in the conference.  The defense is fast, but they tire -- they've given up entirely too many fourth quarter big plays.  They have a challenging opener against Cal, and a tough start to their conference schedule.  Early losses may shatter their confidence.

5.  Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-6/4-8) : Their focus is on shifting defensive players and positions to try to play to their strengths, but I don't think they have enough defensive strength.  Donnell Kirkwood leads a strong running attack, but the passing game is abysmal.  Ohio State played many years with only a running game, but their defense made up for it.  Minnesota doesn't have the defensive strength to do it.

6.  Iowa Hawkeyes (1-7/3-9) : They have to replace workhorse QB James Vandenberg, who was also a large part of the running attack.  Without another significant runner, this offense is pathetic.  Since they have perhaps the toughest conference schedule of anyone, it will be a long year.

Big XII
1.  Texas Longhorns (8-1/11-1) : QB David Ash needs to improve his consistency.  Case McCoy is a capable backup, but he isn't good enough to start.  Fortunately, the team returns 19 starters, so Ash has lots of help.

2.  Oklahoma Sooners (7-2/9-3) : The coaching staff is very high on starting Trevor Knight at quarterback.  I'm not so sure.  Knight has little experience, and he doesn't really have a large corps of receivers to support him.  The offensive backfield is good, but the O line had trouble protecting Landry Jones -- how will they do for Knight?  A patchwork defense filled with sophomores means it will take time for that squad to gel, making the start of their season difficult.

3.  TCU Horned Frogs (7-2/9-3) : Gary Patterson has already created hype for his opener against LSU.  Patterson may need to find things to say about his opponents, as it may be a while until he can tout his own team.  Sophomore QB Trevone Boykin is good, but he needs to improve his accuracy.  A weak running game means his efficiency is crucial.  At least the defense can be hailed, as they return nine starters from last year.

4.  Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-3/9-3) : They lost RB Joseph Randle, so the passing game has become crucial.  The defense make some improvements, but they face plenty of playing time if the one-sided offense cannot keep the ball moving.

5.  Kansas State Wildcats (5-4/8-4) : The scheduling gods frowned on the Wildcats.  They host all of their non-conference games, so they have to face some tough opponents on the road.  They are a talented team, but they still rely too much on emotional and momentum, which will be hard to establish with this schedule.

6.  Baylor Bears (4-5/7-5) : New quarterback Bryce Petty has targets, protection from his offensive line, and runners in his backfield, but he has little experience.  Baylor likes to move the ball quickly, and Petty doesn't have the experience to make quick decisions.  He'll spend this year learning the system.

7.  Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-6/6-6) : The Raiders lost QB Set Doege, who passed for more than 4000 yards last season.  There are plenty of receivers for his replacement, but a weak backfield puts a lot of pressure on the passing game.  With a weak defense, they need to outscore opponents, and that won't be easy.

8.  West Virginia Mountaineers (2-7/5-7) : The Mountaineers didn't have a great rookie season in the Big XII, and they won't follow it up with a good season, either.  The loss of Geno Smith hurts their offense greatly.  They have decent runners, but this is a pass-oriented offense, and they lack punch there.

9.  Iowas State Cyclones (1-8/3-9) : They have a new quarterback, a rebuilt offensive line, and a weak running game.  Their defense is good, but they lack the ability to put many points on the board.

10. Kansas Jayhawks (0-9/2-10) : RB James Sims returns for his senior year, but he's basically the only stable offense the team has.  The defense is slightly improved, but they were 112th last year, so a slight improvement doesn't mean much.

MAC East
1.  Bowling Green Falcons (7-1/10-2) : Senior QB Matt Schitz needs to throw fewer interceptions, but that's the only mark against this offense.  The defense is down slightly from last year, but they are still a tough squad.

2.  Ohio Bobcats (7-1/10-2) : QB Tyler Tettleton needs to step up his performance this season, and he has the tools to do that.  With workhorse RB Beau Blankenship and a stiff defense, this is a tough team that will compete for the division and conference title.

3.  Kent State Golden Flashes (4-4/5-7) : Spencer Keith wasn't a great quarterback, and now he's gone.  That leaves the Flashes with an anemic passing game.  A strong offensive backfield and strong line will keep the offense moving, albeit slowly.  A stiff defense will keep them in close games.

4.  Akron Zips (3-5/4-8) : The Zips are breaking in a new quarterback, and they are doing it without 2012 top receiver Matt Suel.  They have a good backfield, but a weak offensive line makes it hard to create holes for them.  Combine that with a poor defense, and this will be a long year.

5.  Buffalo Bulls (3-5/4-8) : The Bulls have to open against Ohio State.  Who scheduled THAT debacle?  The team swaps between two quarterbacks, but neither achieve more than 50% passing efficiency.  With a weak offensive backfield and a patchwork defense, this won't be a stellar year for the Bulls.

6.  Miami Ohio Redhawks (2-6/2-10)  Let's see... the quarterback graduated, the top receiver transferred, and their projected top running back injured himself in spring training.  This offense is in shambles!  The defense is okay, but they aren't good at scoring, so the Redhawks will struggle.

7.  UMass Minutemen (0-8/1-11) : Ever get the feeling that UMass is regretting moving up to FBS?  They competed in the Colonial Athletic/Atlantic 10, but suffer in the stiffer competition of FBS.  Sophomore QB Mike Wegzyn is good, but he has a nasty habit of throwing to the opponents.  They lost their two best receivers from last year, and have a slow defense, so they are unlikely to beat a single FBS opponent.

MAC West
1.  Ball State Cardinals (7-1/11-1) : Senior QB Keith Wenning is expected to have an excellent year.  He has plenty of speedy and talented receivers, a strong backfield, and a stiff offensive line to protect him.  This is a dangerous offense!  The defense isn't quite as strong, but they aren't pushovers, either!  This could be their best chance to win the cofnerence.

2.  Toledo Rockets (7-1/9-3) : QB Terrance Owens leads a well-stocked offense.  The defensive line is stout, but the secondary needs work.

3.  Northern Illinois Huskies (6-2/10-2) : Senior QB Jordan Lynch faces a new coach, but the same offensive scheme.  Hopefully the new coach will keep Lynch in the pocket more; he was the leading rusher last year, too.  Unfortunately, since Lynch's favorite target departed, he may run more than he should.

4.  Western Michigan Broncos (5-3/7-5) : With the departure of Alex Carder, Tyler van Tubbegen assumes the quarterback duties full-time.  That means he needs to reduce his interception frequency, or this team's defense will see too much duty.

5.  Central Michigan Chippewas (3-5/4-8) : A new quarterback means more pressure on RB Zurlon Tipton.  With a weak defense, this team will scrap for every score.

6.  Eastern Michigan Eagles (0-8/1-11) : The team needs more production from junior QB Tyler Benz.  They have good runners in the backfield, but a restructured offensive line may limit their production.  A poor defense makes things worse.

Conference USA - East
1.  East Carolina Pirates (7-1/10-2) : CAn QB Shane Carden improve on an impressive 2012?  He may not have to.  With WR Justin Hardy and RB Vintavious Cooper, this traditional defensive powerhouse has a killer offense.

2.  UAB Blazers (6-2/8-4) : This team has a potent passing game, but the running game is a bit one-sided.  They need to give Bashr Coles more reps and spell Darrin Reaves, as Reaves' yards per carry drops later in the game.  This team has a porous defense, so they need to pile on the points.

3.  Marshall Thundering Herd (5-3/7-5) : Watch out for QB Rakeem Cato.  He led the best passing attack in the country last year, and he might do that again.  The offensive backfield looks better, but the defense still sucks, which prevents this team from reaching the next level.

4.  Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (5-3/6-6) : QB Logan Kilgore has a talented slate of receivers, a strong offensive line, and fast runners.  The team's biggest problem?  The defensive side of the ball.

5.  Florida International Golden Panthers (3-5/4-8) : This strong Sun Belt team will discover the difference in competitiveness in this conference.  QB Jake Medlock had a shockingly successful freshman season last year, but he won't do so well against these defenses.  He'll need more help from the running back corps.  This defense is also not an par with the better teams in Conference USA.

6.  Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (1-7/2-10) : Both the offense and defense will be improved this season, but the team was so bad last year, they can only improve.

7.  Florida Atlantic Owls (0-9/0-12) : The Owls are breaking in a new quarterback with a weak backfield and a restructured defensive line.  This team has no positives, which makes them the only team that I figure will go winless.

Conference USA West
1.  Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8-0/10-2) : Senior QB Cody Green is expected to have his best year yet.  Accompanied by a strong backfield and stingy defense, the entire Tulsa team can count on having a great year.

2.  North Texas Mean Green (5-3/6-6) : QB Derek Thompson throws a lot, but too many of those passes end up in the opponents' hands.  The Green have a good corps of runners, but they prefer to pass first, when works great for opposing defenses.  Their own defense is improving, but they aren't great in takeaways.

3.  UTSA Roadrunners (5-3/5-7) : QB Erik Sota is very good at spreading his passes around, which helps confuse opposing defenses.  Their running game looks to improve this season, as should their defense; both of which gives them a boost.

4.  Rice Owls (4-4/4-8) : QB Taylor McHargue is suffering from too many sacks.  If the offensive line doesn't protect him better, nor open holes for the running backs, then his offense may need to bring in another quarterback, and they really don't have a decent back-up.

5.  Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-5/6-6) : The Bulldogs lost five offensive starters from last season, so they have plenty of rebuilding to do.  The offensive backfield remains intact, but they rely on an iffy offensive line to open holes for them.

6.  Tulane Green Wave (2-6/4-8) : The offense is under construction this season, combining a new quarterback with a weak offensive line and a limited offensive backfield.  Couple that with a poor defense, and the Green Wave have a tough year ahead of them.

7.  UTEP Miners (1-7/1-11) : A year's experience under their belt will benefit this young team, but they still have a long way to go to improve.