NCAA 2013 Preview #3 - Going West

The Mountain West picked up some former WAC teams, making them the latest conference to have two divisions.    That means seven of the ten conferences have a conference championship.

Pac-12 North
1.  Stanford Cardinal (8-1 in conference / 11-1 overall) : They return eight defensive starters from last year, and this was a potent defense last year.  QB Kevin Hogan is gaining experience, and he is supported by a strong offensive line, but he has several inexperienced runners and receivers.

2.  Oregon Ducks (8-1/11-1) : Key offensive cogs are back from last year, and the new coach is not messing with Chip Kelly's system, so these guys will continue to move fast.  The defense is more sack hungry than last year; they'll have to be, as they face some serious quarterbacks.

3.  Oregon State Beavers (6-3/9-3) : The Beavers return 17 starters from last year, including two quarterbacks, their best running back, and their second best receiver.  The offense is in great shape.  The defense is good, although it looks weak when compared to the offense.

4.  Washington Huskies (4-5/5-7) : QB Keith Prince returns with a strong corps of receivers.  Their best runner from last year returns, but there are holes on the offensive line to fill.  Much of the defense returns, but that wasn't a great group last year.

5.  California Golden Bears (2-7/3-9) : The Bears lost their top four offensive contributors from last year.  The defense is good, but they are rebuilding that squad, too.  This team won't be successful until much later in the season.

6.  Washington State Cougars (1-8/3-9) : The Cougars have a great passing attack, but they have no rushing attack and a very weak defense.  Their one-sided attack won't fool defenses for a whole game.

Pac-12 South
1.  UCLA Bruins (7-2/9-3) : The Bruins have talent, especially in the passing game.  They'll need it, as they lost their best running back.  The defense has some holes, and that will hurt, as UCLA is tested by tough road opponents early and often.

2.  USC Trojans (7-2/10-3) : Their new quarterback is ably supported by the rest of the offense.  Their defense is good, but not as quick as they need to be to combat some of the passing attacks in this conference.

3.  Arizona State Sun Devils (5-4/6-6) : QB Taylor Kelly has most of his offensive weapons back, although the offensive line has been slightly rebuilt.  The defense needs some support, though, so the team could start slowly.

4.  Arizona Wildcats (3-6/6-6) : BJ Denker is the new starting QB.  He has a good cadre of receivers and a strong backfield.  They are supported by a great offensive line.  Unfortunately, the defense is porous.  Can this team score fast enough and often enough to counter what their opponents will be able to do?  Not enough.

5.  Utah Utes (2-7/3-9) : The starting quarterback has not yet been picked, so sophomore Travis Wilson is not a lock.  The team will be handing over the running game to a new primary back, so if they need to break in a new quarterback, too, this will be a long season.

6.  Colorado Buffaloes (2-7/4-8) : QB Jason Webb needs to reduce his frequency of interceptions.  He has WR Paul Richardson back, so he has at least one sure-handed target.  This team is supposedly joining Oregon in an uptempo attack, which doesn't mesh with the skill level of this team.  They just don't read and react that quickly.

Mountain West - Mountain
1.  Boise State Broncos (7-1/11-1) : QB Joe Southwick leads a diverse and talented crew of receivers.  Sophomore RB Jay Ajayi assumes full-time backfield duties.  The quality of the defense fell slightly, but they were a Top Ten defense last year, so a slight fall isn't a major issue.  This team is loaded for a strong run.

2.  Utah State Aggies (6-2/8-4) : QB Chuckie Keeton leads an offense more terrifying than any I have seen from the Aggies.  Unfortunately, that passing attack is all they have, as their offensive line and running game are weak.  Their defense is stout, so that one-sided offense may not be a game-ender, but it will make things tougher for them.

3.  Wyoming Cowboys (3-5/6-6) : Quite a difference between the top two teams and the rest in this division.  QB Brett Smith leads an outstanding passing attack, but that's all Wyoming has.

4.  New Mexico Lobos (3-5/6-6) : Unlike the other teams we've examined in this division, the Lobos have a strong running attack.  However, that's the limit of their offense.  A mediocre defense doesn't help their situation.

5.  Colorado State Rams (2-6/3-10) : A thirteen game season will exhaust the Rams, but they have no bowl game to prepare for anyway.  QB Garrett Grayson is injury-prone, so someone else will be under center for at least three of those 13 games.  That's bad, as backup Conner Smith throws too many interceptions.  The defense has holes on the corners, so opponents can run past them.

6.  Air Force Falcons (0-8/1-11) : This is an unusual position for the Falcons, but they have almost nothing going for them.  They lost most of their offensive performers from last season, and their defense wasn't good to start with.  This is definitely a rebuilding year.

Mountain West - West
1.  Fresno State Bulldogs (7-1/11-1) : QB Derek Carr leads a powerful passing attack.  That's good, since the backfield needs help after they lost their best runner.  Their defense is stout, so they have time to break in a new runner.

2.  San Jose State Spartans (7-1/10-2) : QB David Fales leads a potent passing attach, but they have few runners and a weak offensive line.  A strong defense keeps them going, though.

3.  Nevada Wolf Pack (6-2/8-4) : QB Cody Fajado spreads his passes among many targets, so it's hard to know what he'll do with the ball.  A fast backfield and strong line round out this powerful offense.  Unfortunately, a weak defense leaves them vulnerable to other strong offenses.

4.  San Diego State Aztecs (3-5/5-7) : The Aztecs have a great running attack and a sturdy defense, but poor special teams and terrible passing attack limits their effectiveness.

5.  UNLV Running Rebels (2-6/2-10) : QB Nick Sherry throws too many interceptions.  The Rebels defense isn't nearly as good at causing turnovers, so the Rebels will be trailing in turnover difference and possession time in most games.

6.  Hawaii Warriors (2-6/2-10) : QB Sean Schroeder must reduce his interception percentage, since this team has practically no rushing attack.  That's intentional -- the Warriors are not a pass-first offense, they are a pass-ONLY offense.  They don't have a defense to speak of, so things look dim.

Independents
While the dissolution of the WAC, we gained some independents.  Old Dominion also stepped up from FCS; however, since they play FCS opponents in more than half of their games, I won't count them in this year's preview.

1.  Navy Midshipmen (9-3) : This run-oriented offense frequently has a poor passing attack, but this year's squad, like last year's, has a practically non-existent one.  A decent defense and a favorable schedule contribute to the Midshipmen's success.

2.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-5) : The Irish won't get a chance to redeem themselves in a National Championship Game, at least not for a couple of years.  QB Tommy Rees assumes full-time QB duties, but his passing efficiency isn't great and he has little rush support.  The defense will also feel the loss of Mante Teo, as was shown by Alabama in January when they held his effectiveness at bay.

3.  Army Black Knights (7-5) : A rare good season for the Knights.  They have one of the worst passing attacks in the country, but also one of the best running attacks.  A poor defense makes it tough for them, but they can wear down weaker teams.

4.  BYU Cougars (6-6) : The Cougars are breaking in a new quarterback, who will be leaning heavily on senior WR Cody Hoffman.  They have a decent offensive backfield but a restructured offensive line may limit running holes.  They do have a strong defense, which will torment opponents.

5.  New Mexico State Aggies (3-9) : Their quarterback transferred to Eastern Illinois, their running back graduated, and their best receiver is on probation.  Can their defense save them?  Not for much of the season, as they have to replace too many positions.

6.  Idaho Vandals (3-9) : The Vandals' new quarterback will take some time to get used to the system, especially since he can't rely on a running game to bail him out.