NCAA 2013 - 2014 Bowls

As I type this, the Russell Athletic Bowl is kicking off.  My bowl record so far isn't great, but that shows the magic of the bowls - anything can happen.  So many national analysts wanted to discard the bowls and create a large playoff system, but the coaches said, "No."  I think these bowls have shown why they said that.  NEVER count out any team, especially when many teams haven't played a game in three to four weeks.  It shows how discipline and commitment can trump momentum.

I left off in the previous column with the Holiday Bowl, which closes Dec 30th.  I'll start now with the Dec 31st bowls, and move into the BCS bowls and post-New Years Bowls.

Dec 31
V100 BOWL -- Arizona Wildcats (7-5) v Boston College Eagles (7-5): Level of competition is the real difference here.  Arizona had the tougher conference and non-conference opponents.  The Wildcats wear down opponents with their strong running attack, and their stiff defense prevents them from falling so far behind that they have to give up on their running attack.  BC has had a problem finishing games, and the grinding offense of Arizona will make that worse.  ARIZONA by ten

SUN BOWL -- Virginia Tech Hokies (8-4) v #18 UCLA Bruins (9-3):  UCLA QB Brett Huntley brings his fast-paced passing attack into El Paso.  The Hokies defense isn't great, and UCLA will stretch them until they break.  UCLA has been vulnerable to teams with strong secondaries and fast-paced offenses, as their receivers are a bit undersized and their defensive squad is thin.  Tech can move the ball, but their secondary isn't a major threat.  UCLA by 11

LIBERTY BOWL -- #25 Rice Owls (10-2) v Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6):  Many national analysts have the Bulldogs winning by a big margin.  I'm not sure whether that is due to the ridiculous bias of believing the SEC can beat anyone, or whether they question the strength of Rice.  Granted, the Owls are an infrequent bowl participant, but that doesn't mean they cannot be strong opponents.  As I type this, Conference USA is 2-1 in bowls, on par with the ACC and Pac-12.  The Owls have faced some tough opponents and emerged victorious, while the Bulldogs seemed to rely more on knowing how their opponents think.  I like Rice here.  RICE by eight

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL -- Duke Blue Devils (10-3) v #23 Texas A&M Aggies (8-4):  This is a great match-up.  Nobody believes in Duke after they got pasted by Florida State in the ACC Championship Game, but they have been a good team this year.  The Aggies are led by everyone's favorite QB, Johnny Manziel, so everyone favors A&M.  While I think A&M might win this game, it'll be close and a lot tougher than people think.  Manziel takes too many chances with the ball, and Duke has been great producing and taking advantage of turnovers.  If Manziel is intercepted more than twice, Duke may win this one.  TEXAS A&M by six

Jan 1
I remember when this was the last day of bowls.  Ah well, how times change.

DALLAS BOWL -- UNLV Running Rebels (7-5) v North Texas Mean Green (8-4):  This is nearly a home game for North Texas.  Combine that with one of the stingiest defenses in the country, and the Mean Green are easy favorites here.  NORTH TEXAS by 16

GATOR BOWL -- Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-4) v Georgia Bulldogs (8-4):  Lookee here!  We have a rematch of last year's Capital One Bowl.  Georgia came in to that one favored, and ranked Number Five in the country.  They won, but the Cornhuskers refused to go away, almost engineering a great fourth quarter comeback.  Georgia is favored again, but they are not unanimously ranked.  Again, Georgia has more talent, but Nebraska is fiestier.  They have two capable quarterbacks that they may switch off, throwing off Georgia's defense.  We know Georgia's defense can be confused; that was shown a few times this year.  Georgia may win, but it'll be a close and hard-fought battle.  GEORGIA by three

OUTBACK BOWL -- Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) v #14 LSU Tigers (9-3):  Geez, talk about giving the SEC an easy game!  This is why their bowl record is so good, because they are given opponents they can easily beat.  The question here is, will LSU think they can win too easily?  Iowa can be crafty.  They might lead at the half, but LSU will make the necessary adjustments to win.  LSU by 16

CAPITAL ONE BOWL -- #17 Wisconsin Badgers (9-3) v #12 South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2):  This won't be easy!  Clowney and the Gamecock defense is great at rushing quarterbacks and sealing running holes in their line, but few teams have the muscular power runners that Wisconsin has.  They might just push South Carolina back.  Coach Stever Spurrier makes great adjustments, and has a myriad of plays in his head, so they should figure out a way to win, but they can't just rush Wisconsin and knock them around like they did to Michigan last year; Wisconsin is stronger than that.  South Carolina barely won that game, and might lose this one, but I'll pick the higher ranked team.  SOUTH CAROLINA by three

ROSE BOWL -- #7 Michigan State Spartans (12-1) v #6 Stanford Cardinal (11-2):  This defensive battle won't be as exciting without Spartan captain Max Bullough.  We know the suspension is not due to academics (although the Big Ten remains one of the few conferences we WILL suspend players for bowl games due to academics), nor is it due to locker room texting (the reason Notre Dame lost RB George Atkinson).  Knowing Bullough, it probably has something to do with missing curfew or goofing around at a team function (two other reason Big Ten teams will suspend players while other BCS conference will not).  The Spartans have enough talented defenders that it is not hopeless, but the Cardinal are a strong team.  His absence will be felt, perhaps enough to shift the winner of this game.  With Bullough, I would have felt good about picking the Spartans.  Without him, a win would be an upset.  STANFORD by six

FIESTA BOWL -- #13 UCF Golden Knights (11-1) v #3 Baylor Bears (11-1):  Nobody is giving UCF much of a chance, and truthfully I'm not sure they can win, either.  True, they beat offensive powerhouse Louisville, but that was partially because the Cardinals defense collapsed in the fourth quarter.  While Baylor doesn't have a great defense, I don't think they will collapse like that.  BAYLOR by 13

Jan 2
SUGAR BOWL -- #20 Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) v #2 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1):  Despite the one-game difference in record, and Oklahoma's great win over Oklahoma State that gave them the Big XII title, I think Alabama will dominate this game.  Bama should have gone unbeaten if their players had realized that the missed field goal was a live ball so long as it didn't hit the ground.  ALABAMA by 18

Jan 3
COTTON BOWL -- #10 Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-2) v #9 Missouri Tigers (11-2):  Based upon rankings, this is the closest bowl game aside from the Rose Bowl, which might be so close without Bullough.  Missouri has a powerful offense, equally dangerous in the air and on the ground.  They also have a strong backup quarterback, so even knocking Franklin out of the game won't stop them.  The Cowboys have excellent balance, with top ranked offense and top ranked defense squads.  The Cowboys know the facility, and will likely have more of the crowd on their side.  However, battling in hostile environments didn't bother Missouri this season; if anything, it gave them more incentive.  MISSOURI by four

ORANGE BOWL -- #16 Clemson Tigers (10-2) at #8 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1):  The Buckeyes struggled against strong offenses this season, but they still found ways to win those games.  Their only loss was a team who out-defended them.  Clemson's defense is okay, but not in the same sphere as the Buckeyes.  They rely on Tajh Boyd and the offense too much, which gives Ohio State a chance to throw them off their game. OHIO STATE by six

Jan 4
COMPASS BOWL -- Vanderblt Commodores (8-4) v Houston Cougars (8-4):  The Commodores defense got them to this bowl game, but that defense will be overmatched by the power of the Cougars offense.  HOUSTON by 17

Jan 5
GoDADDY BOWL -- Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) v #24 Ball State Cardinals (10-2):  Ball State may save the MAC, who has played miserably in the bowl games.  Arkansas State can be tricky, and they beat the Kent State Golden Flashes last year in this bowl, but Ball State has a potent offense that wears down opposing defenses.  Combine that with a fast defense who can break up plays, and Ball State has too many weapons to lose this one.  BALL STATE by 20

Jan 6
BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME in the ROSE BOWL -- #1 Florida State Seminoles (13-0) v #4 Auburn Tigers (12-1):  The BCS era ends in the stadium holding its own monumental occasion -- the 100th Rose Bowl.  As has been the rule for nearly a decade, an SEC team plays in the National Championship.  However, this time they are not the favorite.  Auburn is good, but they won two of their three signature games with lucky plays near or at the end of the game.  Don't count on that against Florida State, who wins with sheer power and speed.  Everyone talks about how fast the SEC defenses are, but I don't think Auburn can keep pace with the Seminoles.  It has been nearly twenty years since Florida State played for a national championship, so you know they will make the most of it.  FLORIDA STATE by 11