With the playoffs approaching, I will be looking at the Top Twelve teams, as twelve teams will be going to the playoffs. Will all of them come from the Top 12? In past years, at least one has not, and it looks like that will be true this year as well.
Top 12 teams [Last week's position]
1. Seattle Seahawks (12-2) [1] : Best defense in the league, best home record, balanced offensive attack. What's not to like?
2. Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) [3] : Denver may hold the tiebreaker for division title, but the Chiefs' dominant victory boosted them
3. Denver Broncos (11-3) [2] : San Diego shocked them at home, and now Denver has a challenge for the top seed in the AFC
4. San Francisco 49ers (10-4) [5] : They controlled the game, but it was against the Bucs. They did prevent the potential letdown after finally beating Russell Wilson and the Seahawks
5. Carolina Panthers (10-4) [6] : Not a great win over the struggling Jets, but they climbed into the Top 5
6. New Orleans Saints (10-4) [4] : The Rams' defense stymied them, and now they face the tough Panthers defense.
7. New England Patriots (10-4) [7] : Tough loss, but the Pats still rule the AFC East and hold second place in the AFC
8. Cincinnati Bengals (9-5) [8] : The Steelers beat them, and their AFC North title may be in jeopardy
9. Arizona Cardinals (9-5) [10] : The Titans took them to overtime, so the Cards still have some issues to resolve
10. Indianapolis Colts (9-5) [11] : They dominated Houston, but that's not much of a challenge these days. They are the only division winner crowned, and now they are firmly in the running for a playoff bye.
11. Philadelphia Eagles (8-6) [9] : They got clobbered by Minnesota, and their defense is very suspect
12. Baltimore Ravens (8-6) [13] : Their defense held back the Lions (although they got a really big assist from poor officiating) and they won with nothing but field goals.
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC West [1] : With three Top Ten teams, all of them potential playoff teams, this division excels
2. AFC West [2] : Having both Denver and KC, who have clinched playoff berths, gives this division a great advantage over others
3. NFC South [3] : Interesting division, with two teams with 10-4 records and two with 4-10 records.
4. AFC North [4] : With three teams still in the running for the playoffs, this is a closely fought division with surprising power
5. NFC North [5] : Another closely-embattled division, each of their teams have vulnerabilities that make their ability to win a playoff game questionnable.
6. AFC East [6] : This division flips from two playoff-eligible teams to two fairly pathetic teams
7. NFC East [7] : Philly and Dallas are battling for a likely fourth seed
8. AFC South [8] : Indy is the only division title holder because nobody else in this division holds much promise
Playoff races
KC is the only team that clinched a playoff spot this week, so lots of questions remain. In fact, a couple of divisions got even more confusing.
AFC East: The Pats clinch with a win OR a Dolphins loss. Miami needs to win out AND have the Pats lose BOTH of their remaining games. That doesn't seem likely.
AFC North: Baltimore holds the advantage over Cincy, so if Cincy loses and the Ravens win out, Baltimore gets the title. Unless the Ravens lose, the Bengals need to win out.
AFC West: Denver holds the tiebreaker, but this one may come down to the last week to decide.
AFC seeds: The AFC West winner is in best place to capture top seed -- that team definitely has a bye. The runner-up is clearly the fifth seed. The Pats currently hold the second seed, but one more loss makes that iffy. The Bengals hold the edge for third seed, and Indy plays KC this week, so a Colts loss and Bengals win will consign Indy to the fourth seed. The Ravens lead the charge of the sixth seed, but Miami has an easier schedule, so they could still snatch it. Pittsburgh and San Diego still have a chance, but neither can afford another loss.
NFC East: Philly leads by a game but Dallas holds the tiebreaker. Philly knows they need to win out, or hope Dallas loses again.
NFC North: Chicago now hold the lead, followed by Green Bay. Detroit is still alive, but they can't afford another loss. Detroit has the easier battle this week, so this division might get even more complicated.
NFC South: The Saints hold the tiebreaking lead right now, but a Panthers win this weekend shifts everything.
NFC West: Seattle can win the division with a win this week OR a 49ers loss.
NFC Seeds: Seattle gains the top seed with a win this week. That would put the winner of the NFC South in the second slot. The other division winners will fill third and fourth seeds, although which is which will depend much on this week's results. The NFC West and NFC South runner-ups are battling for the wildcard slots, with Arizona still having an outside chance. The Cardinals cannot lose another game of they fail to reach the playoffs. It looks like 11 wins will be required to make the playoffs as a wildcard.
I survived my rash of visiting picks last week. This week I pick fewer of them, and even have a couple of upsets in the mix.
Sunday early games
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets: Let's face it, the Jets are pretty pathetic. Cleveland should win without much effort. BROWNS, 23-17
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: There are serious questions about the Cowboys defense after the last two weeks. That would normally make them serious underdogs to any decent offense, but the Cowboys-Redskins match-ups are always dogfights. In that case, I have to favor the offensive power of the Cowboys, although either team could really win this one. COWBOYS, 27-24
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans: This should be an easy win for the Broncos, as Houston stinks. BRONCOS, 38-20
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs need to keep winning, as they have a shot at the AFC West title and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Their defense will frustrate Andrew Luck and the Colts. CHIEFS, 27-23
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: Miami beat New England last week. if they can prevent a letdown, they should beat Buffalo. DOLPHINS, 24-20
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals: Although the Vikes shocked Philly last week, I don't think they'll find Cincy so easy. This offense can move, and the defense is good enough to halt a third-string running back. BENGALS, 30-23
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: The Saints beat Carolina in the Superbowl, but I think the Panthers will have the upper hand this time. Carolina has one of the toughest defenses in the league, and that defense will make things very difficult for the Saints. Carolina's offense has improved, and they should be able to get past the Saints defense, improved though that unit is this year. PANTHERS, 23-20
Tampa Bay Bucs at St Louis Rams: The Rams are probably the best 6-8 team we've seen in a while (and the Jets are the worst). This should be a smooth win for the Rams. RAMS, 26-20
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville's winning bubble burst last week, so Tennessee's better record makes them an obvious favorite, especially after stretching Arizona to overtime last week by scoring three times in the fourth quarter. However, Tennessee has been atrocious against divisional opponents and terrible on the road, so I like the Jags. JAGUARS, 23-20
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: The Cardinals need to win to maintain pace for the playoffs. However, beating Seattle at home is as tough as finding a real copper penny anymore. Arizona isn't that lucky. SEAHAWKS, 27-17
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens: The defending Super Bowl Champs have started playing like that, while the Pats stumbled last week. It is extremely rare for Bill Belichick to lose two games in a row, though, and the loss of Gronk can be overcome - the Pats have been playing above their skill level for most of the season. While the Ravens could win this one, I'll pick the Pats. PATRIOTS, 23-20
New York Giants at Detroit Lions: The Giants defense has started to look better, but that defense isn't good enough to stop Calvin Johnson. Furthermore, the weak Giants offense can't keep pace with the Lions. LIONS, 27-16
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: The Chargers need to win out to have any chance at the playoffs. This game will be a good first step, as they have the power to overcome the Raiders. CHARGERS, 27-20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers: We're not sure if Aaron Rodgers will be back, and a victory might depend upon that. Pittsburgh's defense is good enough to hinder the hobbled Packers offense, and they will likely win without Rodgers. Since Rodgers has been working out with the team all week, though, I suspect he will be back, so that will be my pick. PACKERS, 26-23
Sunday night
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles could win this game, but it would require LeSean McCoy. The Bears running defense stinks. If they put the game in the hands of Nick Foles, which they have done since he assumed the starting role, the Bears secondary is good enough to spoil that. I think Chip Kelly will want to do that, as an aerial attack was crucial to the Ducks teams Kelly coached. BEARS, 31-30
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers: The Falcons are in such disarray, they have no hope of getting back on track. Since the 49ers have rediscovered their defense, that's even worse for Matt Ryan and company. 49ERS, 23-13
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment