Some teams are showing life again. San Fran got it together and crushed St Louis, Seattle's defense stopped the powerful Saints offense, and Detroit lit up the scoreboard. We are hitting an interesting point of the season!
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Seattle Seahawks (11-1) [1] : On Monday night they proved that they can't be stopped at home. Since they have a two-game lead on home field advantage, they may be traveling to New Jersey for the Super Bowl.
2. Denver Broncos (10-2) [3] : They bounced back from a terrible collapse in New England to take a second game from the Chiefs.
3. Carolina Panthers (9-3) [4] : Call me crazy, but I think they have the inside track to win the division and take the second seed in the NFC.
4. San Francisco 49ers (8-4) [6] : The defense woke up and they smote the Rams, who previously had a 3-0-1 record against them in previous games.
5. New Orleans Saints (9-3) [2] : They just looked atrocious against Seattle
6. Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) [5] : Three consecutive losses after a 9-0 start, and their defense is slipping. Things suddenly don't look good for the Chiefs, especially since all three of those losses have been to divisional opponents.
7. New England Patriots (9-3) [7] : Their defense let the struggling Texans score 31 points, but the offense never gave up.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (8-4) [8] : Impressive game after the bye, they didn't let an early surge by San Diego phase them.
9. Indianapolis Colts (8-4) [10] : Just when we think the Colts might be fizzling out, they put together an impressive late drive to beat Tennessee
10. Detroit Lions (8-4) [14] : One of their most impressive Thanksgiving Day victories in decades, it broke a nine-year losing streak
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC West [1] : Despite a loss by Arizona this week, Carson Palmer still has that team in position. The 49ers are back up, and the Seahawks are unbeatable
2. AFC West [2] : San Diego is falling, and the Chiefs may be also, but they still rule the AFC right now.
3. NFC South [3] : Two clear playoff teams in New Orleans and Carolina make this clearly the second best division in the NFC
4. AFC North [4] : They are coming back, thanks to impressive wins by Cincy and Baltimore this week
5. NFC North [5] : Detroit was impressive, but the rest need help
6 (tie). AFC East [6] : The Patriots don't win impressively while the Jets and Bills are collapsing. Is it any wonder this division is poised to fall?
6 (tie). NFC East [7] : And surprisingly, it is their counterpart in the NFC ready to surpass them. After looking plumb awful in the middle of the season, Dallas, Philly and the Giants are showing power, and even Washington can still threaten.
8. AFC South [8] : Houston is now the only two-win team in the league, Tennessee is falling, and Jacksonville still has a ways to go to compete. No question this division seems stuck at the bottom.
Now that only four weeks remain in the season, let's look at the divisional and playoff seed races:
AFC East: The Patriots hold a three-game lead in the division. Only Miami stands any chance to unseat them. A loss by Miami and a win by New England this weekend clinches the division.
AFC North: Cincy holds a two-game lead. Mathematically anyone can still win, although Cleveland's chances are slim. The Bengals host Indy while the Ravens get Minnesota, so this lead may shrink to only one game.
AFC South: Indy holds a three-game lead and a perfect division record. A win by Indy OR a loss by Tennessee awards the division to the Colts.
AFC West: Denver holds a one-game lead and a perfect division record over the Chiefs. Nobody else has a chance at the title. It'll take at least two weeks for Denver to clinch, so let's see how this one plays out.
AFC Playoff seeds: Denver has a one game lead for Number One, but New England holds the tiebreaker. Cincy and Indy are battling for the next two spots. The second place team in the AFC West will have the fifth seed, and there are plenty of teams vying for the last spot.
NFC East: Dallas holds the tiebreaker over Philly, but this division is in the midst of a battle. Washington is now out of the race, but the Giants have an outside chance.
NFC North : While Green Bay inept without Aaron Rodgers and the Bears running defense ineffective, the Lions have the best chance to win, even if they only hold a one-game lead over Chicago.
NFC South: Carolina looks better than New Orleans, and they face each other this week. A Panthers win gives them the edge in the divisional race.
NFC West: Seattle leads by three and plays San Fran this week. A Seattle win clinches the division.
NFC Playoff seeds: Seattle leads by two, and a win this week gives them a huge edge for home field advantage. Clearly the NFC South winner will get the second seed. Detroit seems poised to get the third seed, leaving the fourth seed to the NFC East winner. The NFC South runner-up will likely garner the fifth seed, and San Fran leads the race for sixth seed.
Thursday night game
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Houston now has the worst record in the league. Jacksonville began their winning ways by beating Houston, and starting former Wolverine Chad Henne. Henne is producing good numbers for Jacksonville, and the Texans self-destruct. They held it together this past week, but they can't go error-free for two consecutive weeks. For the first time all season, I pick the Jaguars! JAGS, 24-23
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: Both of these teams are suffering major losses in their offense due to injury. Atlanta showed some life last week, while Green Bay is completely listless without Aaron Rodgers. FALCONS, 24-13
Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Bucs three-game winning streak was halted last week, but they have definitely been showing strength recently. The Bills cannot get it together on either side of the ball. BUCS, 26-20
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots: The Patriots defense will allow Cleveland to score more than expected, but the offense will again win the game for them. PATS, 27-20
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles: These two teams are more evenly matched than you might think. Both have tremendous offensive tools. The Lions defense has shown up the past couple of weeks, and that might make the difference in the game. LIONS, 30-27
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals: The Colts showed some life this week, but Andrew Luck still looks shaky. Without some of his reliable targets, he can't move the ball with the same confidence. Cincy, on the other hand, keeps the offense moving. BENGALS, 26-23
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins: The Chiefs defense may have slipped, but they can still stop an offensive-challenged Redskins team. CHIEFS, 30-20
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers: Miami showed up well this past week, but they were playing the pathetic Jets. The Steelers, on the other hand, are another matter entirely. They have a tighter defense and a passing offense that works. The running game for Pittsburgh is not consistent, but they can get the job done when it counts. STEELERS, 24-21
Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens: The Vikings won't be able to move the ball on the ground as effectively as they did last week, so Matt Cassel will have to step up. He brought the Vikings back last week, but it might be asking too much to do so this week. RAVENS, 27-20
Oakland Raiders at New York Jets: It looks like Terrelle Pryor might be back this week. As for the Jets, it doesn't really matter who plays quarterback, their passing game will still be a joke. RAIDERS, 23-13
Sunday late games
New York Giants at San Diego Chargers: A match-up of two 5-7 teams who have the personnel and the talent to do better. Both have had good games, and both have stunk at various times. So who will take the field? The Giants are missing their spark. They seem to have given up on themselves when they failed to beat the Cowboys two weeks ago. Yes, they beat Washington last week, but the Redskins practically handed that game, considering the number of mistakes they made. Philip Rivers and the Chargers have been making plenty of errors, too, but I think they recover better from them. CHARGERS, 26-20
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: A win clinches the division for Seattle and keeps them two games ahead of the Carolina - Saints winner for home field advantage. Add to that the fact that Seattle seems to have San Fran's number, and we'll grant this one to the Seahawks. SEAHAWKS, 23-17
St Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: I think the loss to the 49ers, who the Rams had dominated for two years, will deflate them. The Cardinals tough loss will embolden Carson Palmer, who will pass for over 200 yards and outplay the Rams. CARDINALS, 27-23
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos: The Titans defense isn't good enough to stop Peyton, and their offense definitely can't keep pace. BRONCOS, 31-20
Sunday night game
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: Whoa, this should be a great game! Carolina is playing great and are staring down a league-leading eight-game winning streak. New Orleans has played well, but tough defenses have tormented them. Carolina has one of the toughest defenses in the NFC. The Saints are unbeaten at home, though, so they'll get an extra boost. I'll pick the Panthers, but watch for the upset. PANTHERS, 23-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears: Two statistical measures come to a head in this game -- the Bears' atrocious record on Monday Night Football and Tony Romo's atrocious record in December. While Romo has statistically the best November record of any active quarterback with at least three years experience, he also has the WORST December record in that same class. In fact, he has the worst record in December of any quarterback (ten December games minimum) in the past 20 years! So which stat will rule this game? Dallas fans are claiming that Romo's December woes are behind him. I'll believe that when I see it. He's been in the league long enough that he should have reversed that trend before now. For the Bears, it's harder to identify why they play so poorly on Monday Night. It just seems to be bad karma. I also know that they do worse on Monday Night if I have the nerve to pick them. Therefore, I will pick the Cowboys so that my Bears have a better chance. Let the Romo December chill begin! COWBOYS, 27-24
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