Tuesday, October 21, 2014

NCAA 2014 Week 9 picks

Once again, I ignore the Tuesday Sun Belt game.  It's also a relatively quiet week for Top 25 teams, with many taking a bye.

Thurs Oct 23
UConn Huskies at #24 East Carolina Pirates: It's a battle of the top team in the American Athletic Conference versus the bottom team in the conference.  No contest.  EAST CAROLINA by 33

Miami Hurricanes at Virginia Tech Hokies:  These two teams are fairly evenly matched, so this contest could end up either way.  Miami is a scrappy team, but the Hokies have had some better performances this season, so I will favor them.  VIRGINIA TECH by three

Fri Oct 24
BYU Cougars at Boise State Broncos:  BYU has collapsed the past three weeks, losing consecutive games against weaker opposition.  I think the losing streak will continue, but at least they have some consolation -- they can lose to a better team this time.  BOISE STATE by 13

#13 Oregon Ducks at Cal Golden Bears:  Oregon is the highest-ranked Pac-12 team, but they know they need to impress to climb into the playoff picture with one loss.  Cal might fight early, but I think Oregon will wear them down in the second half.  OREGON by 20

Sat Oct 25
Top 25:
#2 Mississippi State Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats:  It was bound to happen.  Last week the air went out of Kentucky's sails.  Facing the consistently-best offense in the SEC will deflate it further.  MISS STATE by 23

 #3 Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers:  Tennessee has played well, but they are still looking for their first conference win of the year.  Keep looking, guys, as Alabama know has something to prove.  ALABAMA by 26

South Carolina Gamecocks at #5 Auburn Tigers:  The Gamecocks are suffering from a mediocre team and a season of powerhouse teams in the SEC.  The domination of SEC West over SEC East will continue.  AUBURN by 17

#6 Ohio State Buckeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions:  No team in the Big Ten has generated as many dominant performances than Ohio State.  Penn State looked good in non-conference play, but has struggled since starting the Big Ten season.  Those struggles will continue.  OHIO STATE by 28

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at #7 Nebraska Cornhuskers:  Rutgers actually hasn't done too badly in their first season in the Big Ten.  They defend the run well, which will slow down Nebraska.  Slow down, but not stop.  NEBRASKA by 13

Michigan Wolverines at #8 Michigan State Spartans:  The Spartans have won five of their last six against their state rival, and they haven't been in such a great situation.  Since the loss to Oregon, Michigan State has wiped out nearly every opponent (only Nebraska held them within ten), while Michigan has struggled.  The Wolverines shocked Penn State to win their first conference game, but still flounder at 2-4.  MICHIGAN STATE by 26

Texas Tech Red Raiders at #10 TCU Horned Frogs:  While Kansas State is the only team unbeaten in Big XII play, TCU is the conference's best hope for the playoffs.  They know it, and they know they need to post impressive wins from this point forward.  Expect one here.  TCU by 33

#16 Arizona Wildcats at Washington State Cougars:  The 5-1 Wildcats face the worst team in the Pac-12 North.  Not a difficult pick.  ARIZONA by 24

Florida Atlantic Owls at #17 Marshall Thundering Herd:  Also not a tough pick, as Marshall has been manhandling opponents.  MARSHALL by lots

Texas Longhorns at #19 Kansas State Wildcats:  Kansas State will continue their conference unbeaten streak while Texas continues to rebuild and find themselves.  KANSAS STATE by 20

#20 USC Trojans at #21 Utah Utes:  The Trojans have had only three overwhelming victories this season.  The first was followed by a poor 13-10 home win, the next followed by a road loss.  The third occurred last week.  I think USC will win, but it will be a close road victory that won't help their ranking.  USC by six

Arizona State Sun Devils at #22 Washington Huskies:  The Huskies suffered their second conference loss last week.  Arizona State wins, but not impressively.  Either team could win this game.  I think Washington will correct some of the problems experienced last week and eke out a win.  WASHINGTON by four

Vanderbilt Commodores at #25 Missouri Tigers:  Missouri rebounded from a huge shutout administered by Georgia to pound Florida and take control of second place in the SEC East.  Vandy hasn't won an SEC game this season, and they may not.  MISSOURI by 30

Big Ten:
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Illinois Fighting Illini:  Oh, well, another tough year for my Illini as the Gophers continue their lead in the Big Ten West.  MINNESOTA by 31

Maryland Terrapins at Wisconsin Badgers:  The Terps may have surprised Iowa last week, but Wisconsin's crushing ground attack will wear them down.  The Terps just aren't used to that kind of punishment from the former Big East.  WISCONSIN by 16

Other Games of Interest:
UCLA Bruins at Colorado Buffaloes:  The Bruins get to take a week to get their heads on straight as they roll over the worst team in the conference.  UCLA by 23

West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma State Cowboys:  The Cowboys got lassoed by TCU last week after beating Kansas by only seven, but they are still favored against West Virginia.  That's because the Mountaineers only impressive win against a FBS opponent came last week.  That may have been a fluke.  I think the Cowboys will stand taller in the saddle this week, although West Virginia may give them some trouble.  OKLAHOMA STATE by 13

Wyoming Cowboys at Colorado State Rams:  These Cowboys, though, don't stand much of a chance, as the Rams seem poised to run away with the Mountain West title, if they can get past Boise State.  COLORADO STATE by 26

GAME OF THE WEEK -- #1 Ole Miss Rebels at #15 LSU Tigers:  Ole Miss has the best defense in the conference, so LSU's inconsistent offense will struggle.  LSU has a decent defense itself, so this game may be similar to the start of the game against Tennessee last week.  Don't be surprised by a 3-3 tie at halftime, or perhaps a 6-3 Ole Miss lead.  However, the halftime adjustments made by Coach Freeze and Bo Wallace will have Ole Miss moving better in the second half, allowing the Rebs to pull away.  OLE MISS by 13

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