NCAA 2014 Week 8 picks

The week starts on Tues, but it's a Sun Belt team that most people probably don't care about.  Let's start with a game that draws more attention:

Thurs Oct 16
#22 Utah Utes at Oregon State Beavers:  The Beavers have a strong recent history of upsetting conference opponents at home.  Could this be the one this year?  Could be.  Utah has been good, but they've shown some vulnerabilities.  This could be the Beavers' chance.  I'll pick Utah, but Oregon State will likely keep it close.  UTAH by four

Fri Oct 17
Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos:  It has been a disappointing year for Fresno State, but a win here would make the entire season worthwhile.  They'll play the Broncos tough, but I think Boise will win.  BOISE STATE by nine

Temple Owls at Houston Cougars:  Temple has silently accumulated a 4-1 record.  Houston can have good games, but they can also play poorly.  They may be inspired to play well at home, but I think the Owls will still emerge victorious.  TEMPLE by 11

Sat Oct 18
Top 25:
Tennessee Volunteers at #1 Ole Miss Rebels:  Tennessee started the season hot, but conference play has been tough.  They won't threaten the best defense in the country.  OLE MISS by 16

#3 Baylor Bears at West Virginia Mountaineers:  The Mountaineers defense has kept their games close, but they won't be able to do that this time.  BAYLOR by 26

#6 Georgia Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks:  Arkansas nearly knocked off Alabama last week.  Can they do that to Georgia?  Perhaps, but the Bulldogs have been improving every week since their opening loss, so I have to like their continued improvement.  GEORGIA by 11

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at #7 Ohio State Buckeyes:  Rutgers has proven to be a tough competitor in their first year as a Big Ten school, but I don't think they've faced a defense like this team.  It took a bit for the Buckeye defense to find themselves, but they've been good recently.  OHIO STATE by 23

#20 Texas A&M Aggies at #8 Alabama Crimson Tide:  The Tide need to improve from last week or they will suffer the upset.  I think Nick Saban will whip them into shape, though, causing the Aggies to lose their third straight game.  ALABAMA by nine

#9 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Northwestern Wildcats:  The Huskers should roll in this one.  NEBRASKA by 26

#25 Kansas State Wildcats at #10 Oklahoma Sooners:  Over the past two weeks, the Sooners suffered their first loss and a near loss in their fierce Red River Rivalry.  They want a big win to re-establish themselves.  The Wildcats have a history of beating up on weak opponents, getting a nice ranking, and them struggling against the "big boys".  Here's a big boy.  OKLAHOMA by 17

Oklahoma State Cowboys at #11 TCU Horned Frogs:  After going toe-to-toe against Baylor last week, the Cowboys will be a needed relief.  TCU by 20

#12 Michigan State Spartans at Indiana Hoosiers:  The Spartans defense cracked in the fourth quarter against Purdue, so they will toughen up for this game.  MICHIGAN STATE by 17

#15 Washington Huskies at #14 Oregon Ducks:  This game could literally go either way.  In those cases, I usually favor the home team, and I will here.  If Oregon underestimates Washington, thinking their 5-1 record is inflated, they could get knocked off.  OREGON by six

#21 Kentucky Wildcats at #17 LSU Tigers:  It can be tough to win in Baton Rouge, so I favor LSU.  However, Kentucky has a scrappy bunch of players.  They will keep it close, and could pull away in the fourth quarter.  LSU by four

#18 Marshall Thundering Herd at Florida International Golden Panthers:  Marshall would completely overwhelm here.  MARSHALL by 34

Virginia Cavaliers at #19 Duke Blue Devils:  The Blue Devils got new life by beating Georgia Tech last week.  Virginia has played well, so Duke will prepare for them just as hard.  DUKE by 11

#23 Stanford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils:  Arizona State has the better record, but Stanford has performed better on the field.  I favor the performances, but watch out for those surprising Sun Devils!  STANFORD by eight

Missouri Tigers at #24 Florida Gators:  Both suffered losses last week, so both teams feel this is a "must win" game.  Missouri got thoroughly trounced, while Florida kept it close.  Florida overall has been a scappier team, and that fiestiness will be their edge.  FLORIDA by six

Big Ten:
Purdue Boilermakers at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  Surprise!  The Gophers are 5-1 and tied with Iowa for the West division lead.  Purdue had a good game last week, but that may have been a rare spark.  MINNESOTA by 16

Iowa Hawkeyes at Maryland Terrapins:  Iowa needs to keep pace with Minnesota, so they will battle to win this game.  They should, although Maryland is no pushover.  IOWA by 14


Other Games of Interest:
UCLA Bruins at Cal Golden Bears:  UCLA stumbled last week, but they should right themselves for Cal.  UCLA by 13

NC State Wolfpack at Louisville Cardinals:  The Wolfpack have fallen hard the past two weeks.  I'm not sure that plummet is ready to stop.  LOUISVILLE by 18

Clemson Tigers at Boston College Eagles:  These two teams are fairly evenly matched.  If Clemson can avoid one of their occassional meltdowns, this will be an excitingly close game.  In those situations, I usually favor either the home team or the better defense.  Both of those are the same team in this case.  BOSTON COLLEGE by three

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at North Carolina Tar Heels:  North Carolina played tough last week, but Georgia Tech will want to bounce back from their loss last week.  GEORGIA TECH by 11

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #13 Florida State Seminoles:  The Seminoles have not been showing up really powerfully this season.  The folks behind the AP Coaches poll finally agreed with me, dropping Florida State to #3 this week.  Notre Dame has been a tough team, which is why I favor them in this game.  This game might be the "wake-up" call Florida State needs, and they might turn themselves around to win, but I give Notre Dame the nod.  NOTRE DAME by six