NCAA 2014 Week 7 picks

We have six more games where Top 25 teams play each other.  After what happened this past weekend, expect those to be real dogfights.

Thurs Oct 9
#20 BYU Cougars at UCF Golden Knights:  The Cougars get an easy opponent to wash the sting of defeat from their mouths.  However, losing their quarterback near the end of last week's game makes this a hard game to win.  I think they will, but UCF will keep it dangerously close.  BYU by six

Fri Oct 10
Washington State Cougars at #25 Stanford Cardinal:  The Cougars nearly upset Cal, putting up 59 points.  Stanford's defense is much tougher.  STANFORD by 12

Sat Oct 11
Top 25:
#1 Ole Miss Rebels at #13 Texas A&M Aggies:  Kenny Hill has been shown to be vulnerable.  Expect Ole Miss to take a page from their in-state rival's playbook and keep the pressure on the young QB.  If Bo Wallace doesn't get a swelled head after beating Alabama, they should win this, but watch for a post-Tide letdown.  OLE MISS by four

#6 TCU Horned Frogs at #3 Baylor Bears:  TCU pulled off a shocker last week at home.  I'm not sure they have enough steam to do it twice in a row, especially on the road.  BAYLOR by eight

#5 Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks:  Alabama needs to bounce back after being bounced by Ole Miss.  A second consecutive road loss would be unthinkable for the Tide, but Arkansas won't make this one easy.  ALABAMA by ten

North Carolina Tar Heels at #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  After the Irish's performance against Stanford, it would be foolish to pick against them here.  Everett Golson did not have an outstanding day, but it was a solid performance against a stiff defense.  The Tar Heels aren't nearly so tough.  NOTRE DAME by 17

Texas Longhorns at #9 Oklahoma Sooners: Texas will continue to wilt as they face the tougher opponents in the conference.  Oklahoma wants a strong win to redeem themselves from the disappointing loss at TCU.  Vulnerabilities in their defense were exposed, and the coaches have to go to work on that.  Fortunately, Texas' attack isn't so potent, so they have an extra week to improve.  OKLAHOMA by 23

USC Trojans at #11 Arizona Wildcats:  The Wildcats now have a heavy burden -- they are the only unbeaten Pac-12 team left, and perhaps their own viable candidate for the playoffs.  Can they defend those hopes against USC?  The Trojans can be tough, but they've been hurting themselves.  If they clean up their act this week, Arizona might lose.  I suspect there is still some work that needs to be done to get the Trojans back on track, though.  ARIZONA by nine

#12 Georgia Bulldogs at #18 Missouri Tigers:  The Bulldogs have steadily improved the past three weeks, and they will prove that against Missouri.  The Tigers did get an extra week to prepare, but which Georgia team did they prepare for?  Not the one that played this past week, I expect.  GEORGIA by 16

#14 Michigan State Spartans at Purdue Boilermakers:  Purdue may have found themselves a quarterback this week, but that won't help them much against the toughest defense in the conference.  MICHIGAN STATE by 30

#15 Florida State Seminoles at Syracuse Orange:  This game may not be as easy as the respective records would indicate.  While Syracuse sits at 2-3, they have been competitive in every game they have played this season.  If Florida State doesn't start hitting their 2013 stride, this game will be closer than Seminole fans would like.  FLORIDA STATE by 11

#16 Oregon Ducks at #19 UCLA Bruins:  The Bruins continued their strange streak of losing the week before they face Oregon.  Sometimes they have saved their strength for Oregon, and pulled off the upset.  With the inconsistent play of QB Brett Huntley, though, I have to favor the Ducks.  OREGON by 16

#21 LSU Tigers at #17 Florida Gators:  This game could easily go either way, but Florida has shown a greater tenacity in close games.  FLORIDA by four

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at #22 Marshall Thundering Herd: Middle Tennessee actually leads the Conference USA West division, mainly because they've played (and beaten) more conference opponents than Marshall.  Marshall has the better team, however.  MARSHALL by 20

#23 Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets:  Both teams got a bye this past week, and that might have helped Tech more than Duke.  This game will be close, and the lead will change several times, but I actually like Tech to preserve their unbeaten record and knock Duke out of the Top 25.  GEORGIA TECH by six

Big Ten:
Illinois Fighting Illini at Wisconsin Badgers:  The Illini defense showed they have trouble tackling and chasing down opponents.  Wisconsin will take advantage of both problems.  WISCONSIN by 24

Indiana Hoosiers at Iowa Hawkeyes: Indiana can be a tough team, but Iowa had an extra week to relax and plan.  This game will be a battle, but Iowa should emerge victorious.  IOWA by eight

Northwestern Wildcats at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  The Wildcats have a read Jekyll and Hyde complex this season.  They were terrible during their non-conference play, but have gone 2-0 since Big Ten play has begun.  Did the Wildcats fix what was broken earlier, or are they running on pure adrenalin.  This game will test that, as they face a well-rested Minnesota team.  This game could go either way, but I'll pick Minnesota.  If Northwestern wins, then I will believe their turnaround.  MINNESOTA by six

Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Wolverines:  If Michigan wanted, Brady Hoke could be the third coaching casualty this season.  Fortunately for him, the Big Ten schools tend to allow coaches to finish out the season.  It'll be a long season for Michigan, who could face their second losing season in six years.  PENN STATE by 16

Other Games of Interest:
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Kentucky Wildcats:  This should be an easy win for Kentucky, so long as they don't underestimate the Warhawks just because they play in the Sun Belt conference.  They can be a decent team, and can surprise opponents who look past them.  I don't think the Wildcats will do that.  KENTUCKY by 24

Louisville Cardinals at Clemson Tigers:  I'm not sure which team is being ignored more -- Ole Miss or Louisville.  After their defeat of Alabama, I'm not sure Ole Miss is ignored (although the large number of national rankings that refuse to put Ole Miss into their Top 4 still seems to be ignoring their strength), so I'll go with Louisville.  Quietly the Cardinals have become the second best team in the ACC, which they will prove after beating Clemson, who completely shut down NC State.  LOUISVILLE by 18

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas Jayhawks:  Kansas is a team without a coach.  Truthfully, I didn't understand, as Kansas has not been a force except for two years when Todd Reesing was QB.  This is a lower-level team without a leader.  OKLAHOMA STATE by 33

Washington Huskies at Cal Golden Bears:  Both teams are 4-1, but Cal has been squeaking by, while Washington has produced clear victories.  This one is fairly easy.  WASHINGTON by 13

East Carolina Pirates at South Florida Bulls:  Here are two teams with perennial strong defenses.  Both teams are facing lean times defensively, but East Carolina has a working offense.  EAST CAROLINA by 24

Colorado State Rams at Nevada Wolf Pack:  The Rams are having an excellent year, and could contend for the Mountain West title.  Defeating Nevada would go a long way towards that goal.  COLORADO STATE by 17

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #2 Auburn Tigers at #4 Mississippi State Bulldogs:  This will be a thrilling game.  Both teams have strong offenses and good defenses.  Mississippi State has done great recently, beating LSU and Texas A&M as warmups for this game.  I really like their chances to win.  However, Auburn has a nasty habit of finding ways to win close games, and I suspect this will be a close game.  While the Bulldogs could win, I have to slightly favor Auburn.  AUBURN by three