NCAA 2014 Week 11 picks

The season is winding down.  In fact, next week I'll be looking at the division and conference races.  This week is exciting enough, with four games pitting ranked teams.

Tues Nov 4
Bowling Green Falcons at Akron Zips:  The MAC East division could be locked up with this game, as the division-leading Falcons face the second-place Zips.  If Bowling Green wins, all they need to do is win one more game.  BOWLING GREEN by 12

Toledo Rockets at Kent State Golden Flashes:  The other MAC division leader has an easier game, but faces a tighter divisional race.  This win will keep them on top, though.  TOLEDO by 24

Wed Nov 5
Northern Illinois Huskies at Ball State Broncos:  The Huskies should win this game to remain close behind Toledo for the division lead.  NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 13

Thurs Nov 6
Clemson Tigers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons:  Wake is looking for their first ACC win of the season.  They should keep looking, as Clemson is dogging Florida State.  The Tigers hope the less-than-inspired play by the Seminoles result in a loss, so they can creep into division contention.  CLEMSON by 23

Fri Nov 7
Memphis Tigers at Temple Owls:  These two are involved in the tight American Athletic title race.  Temple was strong earlier in the season, but bounced back from a recent skid last week.  Still, a Temple loss basically takes them out of the race.  Memphis has been dominant in their recent victories, so I have to like their chances.  MEMPHIS by 23

Utah State Aggies at Wyoming Cowboys:  The Cowboys had an impressive win last week, but the Aggies have been a threat all season long.  UTAH STATE by 17

Sat Nov 8
Top 25:
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks (FCS) at #1 Mississippi State Bulldogs:  The Bulldogs get an easy game after barely escaping Arkansas.  MISSISSIPPI STATE by 32

#2 Alabama Crimson Tide at #15 LSU Tigers:  LSU had a bye week to continue celebrating their win over Ole Miss, but now Alabama comes into town.  The Tide have sharpened their play since their loss to Ole Miss, and I expect them to demonstrate that to the Tigers.  ALABAMA by 13

Texas A&M Aggies at #3 Auburn Tigers:  Unless Auburn suffers a letdown after their victory over Ole Miss, they should put away the Aggies.  AUBURN by 24

Virginia Cavaliers at #4 Florida State Seminoles:  Virginia can be a tough opponent this year.  They like to dominate early, but we've seen the Seminoles fight back from deficits.  On the other hand, Florida State gets lackluster if they lead late in the third quarter.  Virginia's best strategy might be to keep it close, and then pour it on in the fourth.  I'm not sure they'll do that, so I'll pick Florida State to win yet another close game.  FLORIDA STATE by six

Presbyterian Blue Hose (FCS) at #7 Ole Miss Rebels:  Both Mississippi teams get easy FCS opponents.  For Ole Miss, it's a chance to stop a two-game losing streak.  OLE MISS by lots

#9 Baylor Bears at #13 Oklahoma Sooners:  This could be a close game, which is not normal for Baylor.  If they don't panic because they are not far in front, they should win.  If they panic, they open the door for Oklahoma to engineer the upset.  BAYLOR by six

#16 Kansas State Wildcats at #10 TCU Horned Frogs:  The Horned Frogs had a wake-up call last week, which doesn't benefit K-State.  TCU will practice harder and be better prepared for this game, and I'm not sure the Wildcats are as good as their record.  This game will determine that.  TCU by ten

#11 Oregon Ducks at Utah Utes:  The Utes defense isn't strong enough to slow the Ducks sufficiently enough to win.  OREGON by 20

#12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #20 Arizona State Sun Devils:  Neither team has been outstanding in their victories.  The Sun Devils are strong at home, but the Irish have a well-honed team; they have faced tougher opposition, and are better prepared for this game.  NOTRE DAME by nine

#14 Georgia Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats:  Can the Bulldogs bounce back after getting shocked by Florida?  Kentucky has been a stiff opponent this season.  I'll pick Georgia to bounce back, but watch for an upset.  GEORGIA by 11

#17 Marshall Thundering Herd at Southern Miss Golden Eagles:  Easy win for Marshall, as the Eagles are grounded.  MARSHALL by lots

#18 Duke Blue Devils at Syracuse Orange:  The Orange have battled hard in most of their games, but can't close them.  Expect that again.  DUKE by 8

#19 Wisconsin Badgers at Purdue Boilermakers:  Nebraska had over 200 yards against Purdue without their best runner.  Can Wisconsin top 250 yards?  WISCONSIN by 27

#22 UCLA Bruins at Washington Huskies:  UCLA had a great game against Arizona, but Brett Hunley has been less than stellar this season.  If he falter again, the Huskies could knock them off.  UCLA by six

Colorado Buffaloes at #23 Arizona Wildcats:  The Wildcats get to rebound from the aforementioned loss by slaughtering the Pac-12 doormat.  ARIZONA by 31

Hawaii Warriors at #24 Colorado State Rams:  Hawaii, as usual, struggles on the road.  Facing the conference-leading Rams on the road is a losing proposition.  COLORADO STATE by 20

Big Ten:
Penn State Nittany Lions at Indiana Hoosiers:  The Hoosiers are winless in conference play, while Penn State needs to bounce back from the shocker against Maryland.  Good chance to do that.  PENN STATE by 13

Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  Crucial battle in the West division, as the loser is likely out of the race.  Minnesota started the season stronger, but lately Iowa has looked better.  Minnesota had a bye week to stew about the loss to Illinois, so they'll be hungry.  It'll be close, but I like what Iowa has been doing recently.  IOWA by nine

Michigan Wolverines at Northwestern Wildcats:  Michigan has struggled this season, and the Wildcats had an extra week to work out their kinks and get themselves coordinated.  I like the Wildcats for the upset.  NORTHWESTERN by four

Other Games of Interest:
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at NC State Wolf Pack:  After a great non-conference run, the Wolf Pack have collapsed in ACC play.  The Yellow Jackets are knocking on the door of the Top 25, and a strong performance here will help boost them.  GEORGIA TECH by 17

Boise State Broncos at New Mexico Lobos:  The Broncos should roll over the struggling Lobos.  BOISE STATE by 20

Louisville Cardinals at Boston College Eagles  This could be an interesting match-up.  BC knows a loss here removes them from the division race, so they will battle.  I think Louisville has better weapons, but the Eagles won't make it easy.  LOUISVILLE by six

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #5 Ohio State Buckeyes at #8 Michigan State Spartans:  The Buckeyes have been blowing away opponents since their shocking opening weekend loss, but JT Barrett has struggled against stiff defenses.  The Spartans have the toughest defense in the conference, and one of the toughest defenses in the country, and so I have to pick the Spartans to spoil Ohio State's record-setting streak of regular season conference victories.  MICHIGAN STATE by six