This week I begin my analysis of the division and conference races.
American Athletic: Typical of this conference, going back to when they were the Big East, this is still a wide-open race. Memphis has a half-game lead, but East Carolina, Cincy, and UCF are right in the race, with Houston having an opening as well.
ACC Atlantic: Florida State is in the driver's seat, and holds the tiebreaker over Clemson. If Clemson loses to Georgia Tech or Florida State beats Miami, the Seminoles win the division
ACC Coastal: Duke holds the lead and the tiebreaker over Georgia Tech, so two more wins by Duke clinches the division. Miami is the only team to beat Duke, so they have an outside chance at the title, but they'd have to win out and Duke lose all of their remaining games. I don't see that happening.
Big Ten East: Ohio State now has a two-game lead over anyone else, with their win over Michigan State. The Buckeyes would have to lose two games for the Spartans to advance.
Big Ten West: Nebraska leads the division and controls their destiny, as their three remaining games are against the other division contenders: Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. If they win two out of three, they should win the division.
Conference USA East: Having beaten Middle Tennessee already, Marshall holds a two-game lead. One more win clinches the division for them.
Conference USA West: Louisiana Tech holds a one-game lead over Rice. Their match-up on Nov 29th could determine the division winner, although Rice faces Marshall this week.
MAC East: Bowling Green clinches with one more victory.
MAC West: Toledo is in a tighter battle. They have a game lead over Northern Illinois, but play them this week. If the Huskies win, they lead the division, but additional loss would hurt. A Toledo win doesn't seal it for the Rockets, as Western Michigan is still there, but they have an easier time of it.
Mountain West Mountain: Boise holds the tiebreaker over Colorado State, so even if the Rams win out, the Broncos take the title if they win out. Boise has the tougher challenge, though, as they play both San Diego State and Utah State.
Mountain West West This is a tight race among Nevada, San Diego State, and Fresno State.
Pac-12 North: With their only loss to non-divisional Arizona, OREGON has won the division
Pac-12 South: This is a tighter race. Arizona State holds the lead, but they lost to second-place UCLA and must still play Arizona. Even USC has an outside chance.
SEC East: Missouri leads, but they lost to second-place Georgia. Missouri must win out, or Georgia can capture the title.
SEC West: Mississippi State leads, but they have the toughest schedule remaining, facing both Alabama and Ole Miss. The Tide can be in the driver's seat if they unseat the Bulldogs, but their loss to Ole Miss and upcoming Iron Bowl matchup against Auburn could knock them out. Ole Miss needs to win out, as does Auburn.
Sun Belt: Georgia Southern is done with conference play and end with a perfect record. They didn't play Louisiana-Lafayette, who also sit with a perfect conference record. The Ragin Cajuns must win their two remaining conference games and hope Navy beats Georgia Southern to stand a chance.
Tues Nov 11
Toledo Rockets at Northern Illinois Huskies: Potentially the battle for the division, Toledo is in good shape with a win. The Rockets are a strong team, but the Huskies have tools, too. This is likely to be a close game, so I'll favor the home team. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by four
Wed Nov 12
Kent State Golden Flashes at Bowling Green Falcons: The other division title contender clinches with a win. They'll get it here. BOWLING GREEN by 23
Thurs Nov 13
East Carolina Pirates at Cincinnati Bearcats: Consider this the battle for American Athletic runner-up, as the winner will trail Memphis by half a game and the loser is basically out of the race. That makes this an exciting and close game. Close games often hinge on strong defensive play, and that gives East Carolina the edge. EAST CAROLINA by three
Fri Nov 14
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at UCF Golden Knights: The "shower of gold" goes to the Knights, who need the win to keep pace with Memphis and the winner of Thursday's game. UCF by 20
Sat Nov 15
Top 25:
#3 Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes: The Hurricanes love to play spoiler. If the Seminoles continue their trend of trailing at the half and coming back in the second half, Miami's defense may give them a problem. The back-biting being exhibited by some of the Seminoles players don't help them either. I'll pick Florida State, but watch for the potential upset. FLORIDA STATE by six
#4 Ohio State Buckeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers: The Gophers will fall from division contention after the Buckeyes trounce them. Urban Meyer will keep them from experiencing a post-Spartan letdown. OHIO STATE by 18
#6 TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas Jayhawks: With Baylor taking a bye, TCU has a chance to get a half-game lead in the Big XII. TCU by 34
#7 Nebraska Cornhuskers at#11 Wisconsin Badgers: The Badgers have been great lately, but their recent tendency to fold in tough games makes me question if they can win this one. Nebraska has also been playing more consistently, so I like their chances. Wisconsin could pull this one out, though. NEBRASKA by five
#15 Auburn Tigers at #10 Georgia Bulldogs: The Tigers have something to prove after a mistake-riddled loss to A&M, but it can be tough to win between the hedges, and Georgia has a strong offense. GEORGIA by four
#12 Michigan State Spartans at Maryland Terrapins: The Spartans are basically out of the title race, but they still want a shot at a prominent bowl. They will knock down Maryland. MICHIGAN STATE by 20
Rice Owls at #13 Marshall Thundering Herd: This win clinches the title for Marshall AND for Louisiana Tech, as Rice is the other contender for THAT division. MARSHALL by 24
Virginia Tech Hokies at #14 Duke Blue Devils: The Hokies are the only team to have beaten Ohio State this year, but they have not been able to build on that upset. They sit in the basement of the Coastal division, so this should be a cakewalk for Duke. DUKE by 21
#16 Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon State Beavers: The Beavers usually produce one home upset each season, and they haven't done that yet. After a shocking loss to Washington State last week, they have something to prove. Could this be the game? Maybe, but I'll let it be an upset if so. ARIZONA STATE by nine
Northwestern Wildcats at #18 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: After committing lots of turnovers against Arizona State, you know the Irish want to play a cleaner game. They'd better, because Northwestern will exploit opponent's mistakes. NOTRE DAME by 17
#19 Oklahoma Sooners at Texas Longhorns: Texas is beginning to find themselves, but I don't think the rebuilt Horns are quite ready for an opponent as strong as the Sooners. OKLAHOMA by 20
#20 LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks: Arkansas can give teams trouble, but they can't close games. LSU by nine
#21 Missouri Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies: Watch out for them Aggies! QB Kyle Allen wants to make everyone forget about Kenny Hill, and this team is fully backing him. Missouri had an extra week to prepare, though, and they are no slough in the offensive department, either. MISSOURI by ten
Washington Huskies at #23 Arizona Wildcats: Washington was strong earlier in the season, but they are fading. Arizona wants to keep winning so that a defeat of the Sun Devils might give them a division title. ARIZONA by 17
Clemson Tigers at #25 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Clemson needs a win to continue to challenge Florida State for the division, while Georgia Tech needs the win to keep pace with Duke. Both have title aspirations, and both know a loss will expire them. Both have great tools, but I have to give a slight edge to the Yellow Jackets, who have really been strong recently. GEORGIA TECH by eight
Big Ten:
Temple Owls at Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State should win this one, but they have messed up at critical times this season. I'll pick them, but watch out for an upset. PENN STATE by 13
Iowa Hawkeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini: As much as I would love the upset, my Illini just lack power this season. Iowa also needs to wash away the stink of that horrible loss to Minnesota. IOWA by 24
Indiana Hoosiers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Indiana is yet to win a conference game. This might be their best shot, but Rutgers has shown enough power against teams like Ohio State that they should win. RUTGERS by 13
Other Games of Interest:
Nevada Wolf Pack at Air Force Falcons: Nevada leads the West division, but this game will demonstrate the difference in strength between the Mountain and West divisions. AIR FORCE by eight
Memphis Tigers at Tulane Green Wave: Memphis is playing for a conference title, while Tulane can't seem to generate a winning record. MEMPHIS by 23
San Diego State Aztecs at Boise State Broncos: Another Mountain v West division match-up, and this one will further expose the talent gap between the two divisions. BOISE STATE by 17
GAME OF THE WEEK: #1 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #2 Alabama Crimson Tide: We get a contest of #1 v #2 early this year, and it should be a doozy! Could Alabama lose to BOTH teams from Mississippi this season? The Bulldogs are unbeaten, thanks in large part to the arm of QB Dak Prescott. However, it can be tough to beat Alabama at home, and the Tide have been sharpening their game since their 13-10 loss at Ole Miss. The Bulldogs played a FCS team as a warm-up to this game; not good enough preparation. ALABAMA wins the upset by four
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